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Open accessJournal ArticleDOI: 10.3390/V13030419

Prognostic Values of Serum Ferritin and D-Dimer Trajectory in Patients with COVID-19

05 Mar 2021-Viruses (MDPI AG)-Vol. 13, Iss: 3, pp 419
Abstract: Cytokine storm syndrome in patients with COVID-19 is mediated by pro-inflammatory cytokines resulting in acute lung injury and multiorgan failure. Elevation in serum ferritin and D-dimer is observed in COVID-19 patients. To determine prognostic values of optimal serum cutoff with trajectory plots for both serum ferritin and D-dimer in COVID-19 patients with invasive ventilator dependence and in-hospital mortality. We used retrospective longitudinal data from the Cerner COVID-19 de-identified cohort. COVID-19 infected patients with valid repeated values of serum ferritin and D-dimer during hospitalization were used in mixed-effects logistic-regression models. Among 52,411 patients, 28.5% (14,958) had valid serum ferritin and 28.6% (15,005) D-dimer laboratory results. Optimal cutoffs of ferritin (714 ng/mL) and D-dimer (2.1 mg/L) revealed AUCs ≥ 0.99 for in-hospital mortality. Optimal cutoffs for ferritin (502 ng/mL) and D-dimer (2.0 mg/L) revealed AUCs ≥ 0.99 for invasive ventilator dependence. Optimal cutoffs for in-house mortality, among females, were lower in serum ferritin (433 ng/mL) and D-dimer (1.9 mg/L) compared to males (740 ng/mL and 2.5 mg/L, respectively). Optimal cutoffs for invasive ventilator dependence, among females, were lower in ferritin (270 ng/mL) and D-dimer (1.3 mg/L) compared to males (860 ng/mL and 2.3 mg/L, respectively). Optimal prognostic cutoffs for serum ferritin and D-dimer require considering the entire trajectory of laboratory values during the disease course. Females have an overall lower optimal cutoff for both serum ferritin and D-dimer. The presented research allows health professionals to predict clinical outcomes and appropriate allocation of resources during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially early recognition of COVID-19 patients needing higher levels of care.

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Topics: Ferritin (57%), Lung injury (52%)

5 results found

Open accessJournal ArticleDOI: 10.1371/JOURNAL.PONE.0256744
26 Aug 2021-PLOS ONE
Abstract: Introduction Coronavirus Disease 2019 is a primarily respiratory illness that can cause thrombotic disorders. Elevation of D-dimer is a potential biomarker for poor prognosis in COVID-19, though optimal cutoff value for D-dimer to predict mortality has not yet been established. This study aims to assess the accuracy of admission D-dimer in the prognosis of COVID-19 and to establish the optimal cutoff D-dimer value to predict hospital mortality. Methods Clinical and laboratory parameters and outcomes of confirmed COVID-19 cases admitted to four hospitals in Kathmandu were retrospectively analyzed. Admitted COVID-19 cases with recorded D-dimer and definitive outcomes were included consecutively. D-dimer was measured using immunofluorescence assay and reported in Fibrinogen Equivalent Unit (μg/ml). The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the accuracy of D-dimer in predicting mortality, and to calculate the optimal cutoff value, based on which patients were divided into two groups and predictive value of D-dimer for mortality was measured. Results 182 patients were included in the study out of which 34(18.7%) died during the hospital stay. The mean admission D-dimer among surviving patients was 1.067 μg/ml (±1.705 μg/ml), whereas that among patients who died was 3.208 μg/ml (±2.613 μg/ml). ROC curve for D-dimer and mortality gave an area under the curve of 0.807 (95% CI 0.728–0.886, p<0.001). Optimal cutoff value for D-dimer was 1.5 μg/ml (sensitivity 70.6%, specificity 78.4%). On Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, the unadjusted hazard ratio for high D-dimer was 6.809 (95% CI 3.249–14.268, p<0.001), and 5.862 (95% CI 2.751–12.489, p<0.001) when adjusted for age. Conclusion D-dimer value on admission is an accurate biomarker for predicting mortality in patients with COVID-19. 1.5 μg/ml is the optimal cutoff value of admission D-dimer for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients.

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6 Citations

Open accessJournal ArticleDOI: 10.3390/JCM10153290
Tamas Szakmany1, Tamas Szakmany2, William Tuckwell2, Elsa Harte2  +8 moreInstitutions (2)
Abstract: Background: We sought to determine if there was a difference in the longitudinal inflammatory response measured by white blood cell count (WBC), C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), and ferritin levels between the first and the second COVID-19 wave of ICU patients. Methods: In a single-center retrospective observational study, ICU patients were enrolled during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Data were collected on patient demographics, comorbidities, laboratory results, management strategies, and complications during the ICU stay. The inflammatory response was evaluated using WBC count, CRP, PCT, and Ferritin levels on the day of admission until Day 28, respectively. Organ dysfunction was measured by the SOFA score. Results: 65 patients were admitted during the first and 113 patients during the second wave. WBC and ferritin levels were higher in the second wave. CRP and PCT showed markedly different longitudinal kinetics up until day 28 of ICU stay between the first and second wave, with significantly lower levels in the second wave. Steroid and immunomodulatory therapy use was significantly greater in the second wave. Mortality was similar in both waves. Conclusions: We found that there was a significantly reduced inflammatory response in the second wave, which is likely to be attributable to the more widespread use of immunomodulatory therapies.

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Topics: SOFA score (57%), Procalcitonin (51%)

2 Citations

Open accessPosted ContentDOI: 10.1101/2021.11.11.21266048
12 Nov 2021-medRxiv
Abstract: Despite available vaccinations COVID-19 case numbers around the world are still growing, and effective medications against severe cases are lacking. In this work, we developed a machine learning model which predicts mortality for COVID-19 patients using data from the multi-center Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-infected patients (LEOSS) observational study (>100 active sites in Europe, primarily in Germany), resulting into an AUC of almost 80%. We showed that molecular mechanisms related to dementia, one of the relevant predictors in our model, intersect with those associated to COVID-19. Most notably, among these molecules was tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2), a protein that has been patented as drug target in Alzheimers Disease but also genetically associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes. We experimentally verified that anti-cancer drugs Sorafenib and Regorafenib showed a clear anti-cytopathic effect in Caco2 and VERO-E6 cells and can thus be regarded as potential treatments against COVID-19. Altogether, our work demonstrates that interpretation of machine learning based risk models can point towards drug targets and new treatment options, which are strongly needed for COVID-19.

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Topics: Regorafenib (51%)

Open accessJournal ArticleDOI: 10.1136/BMJOPEN-2021-050571
Joy John Mammen1, Snehil Kumar1, Lovely Thomas1, Gunjan Kumar2  +56 moreInstitutions (18)
04 Oct 2021-BMJ Open
Abstract: Objective Large data on the clinical characteristics and outcome of COVID-19 in the Indian population are scarce. We analysed the factors associated with mortality in a cohort of moderately and severely ill patients with COVID-19 enrolled in a randomised trial on convalescent plasma. Design Secondary analysis of data from a Phase II, Open Label, Randomized Controlled Trial to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Convalescent Plasma to Limit COVID-19 Associated Complications in Moderate Disease. Setting 39 public and private hospitals across India during the study period from 22 April to 14 July 2020. Participants Of the 464 patients recruited, two were lost to follow-up, nine withdrew consent and two patients did not receive the intervention after randomisation. The cohort of 451 participants with known outcome at 28 days was analysed. Primary outcome measure Factors associated with all-cause mortality at 28 days after enrolment. Results The mean (SD) age was 51±12.4 years; 76.7% were males. Admission Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score was 2.4±1.1. Non-invasive ventilation, invasive ventilation and vasopressor therapy were required in 98.9%, 8.4% and 4.0%, respectively. The 28-day mortality was 14.4%. Median time from symptom onset to hospital admission was similar in survivors (4 days; IQR 3–7) and non-survivors (4 days; IQR 3–6). Patients with two or more comorbidities had 2.25 (95% CI 1.18 to 4.29, p=0.014) times risk of death. When compared with survivors, admission interleukin-6 levels were higher (p 10 (9.97, 3.65–27.13, p 1.0 mg/L (2.50, 1.14–5.48, p=0.022), ferritin ≥500 ng/mL (2.67, 1.44–4.96, p=0.002) and lactate dehydrogenase ≥450 IU/L (2.96, 1.60–5.45, p=0.001) were significantly associated with death. Conclusion In this cohort of moderately and severely ill patients with COVID-19, severity of illness, underlying comorbidities and elevated levels of inflammatory markers were significantly associated with death. Trial registration number CTRI/2020/04/024775.

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Open accessJournal ArticleDOI: 10.1186/S12879-021-06574-X
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Although the risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality have been identified, there is limited information about the risk factors for disease progression after hospitalization among Japanese patients with COVID-19 exhibiting no or mild symptoms. METHODS: All 302 consecutive patients who were admitted to our institutions and diagnosed with COVID-19 between March and December 2020 were retrospectively assessed. Ultimately, 210 adult patients exhibiting no or mild symptoms on admission were included in the analysis. They were categorized into the stable (no oxygen needed) and worsened (oxygen needed) groups, and their characteristics and laboratory data were compared. RESULTS: Among 210 patients, 49 progressed to a severe disease stage, whereas 161 did not. The mean patient age was 52.14 years, and 126 (60.0%) patients were male. The mean body mass index (BMI) was 23.0 kg/m2, and 71 patients were overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2). Multivariate logistic analysis showed that old age, overweight, diabetes mellitus (DM), and high serum ferritin levels were independent risk factors for disease progression. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians should closely observe patients with COVID-19, especially those with risk factors such as old age, overweight, DM, and high serum ferritin levels, regardless of whether they have no or mild symptoms.

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Topics: Overweight (53%), Body mass index (52%)

23 results found

Journal ArticleDOI: 10.1016/0021-9681(87)90171-8
Abstract: The objective of this study was to develop a prospectively applicable method for classifying comorbid conditions which might alter the risk of mortality for use in longitudinal studies. A weighted index that takes into account the number and the seriousness of comorbid disease was developed in a cohort of 559 medical patients. The 1-yr mortality rates for the different scores were: "0", 12% (181); "1-2", 26% (225); "3-4", 52% (71); and "greater than or equal to 5", 85% (82). The index was tested for its ability to predict risk of death from comorbid disease in the second cohort of 685 patients during a 10-yr follow-up. The percent of patients who died of comorbid disease for the different scores were: "0", 8% (588); "1", 25% (54); "2", 48% (25); "greater than or equal to 3", 59% (18). With each increased level of the comorbidity index, there were stepwise increases in the cumulative mortality attributable to comorbid disease (log rank chi 2 = 165; p less than 0.0001). In this longer follow-up, age was also a predictor of mortality (p less than 0.001). The new index performed similarly to a previous system devised by Kaplan and Feinstein. The method of classifying comorbidity provides a simple, readily applicable and valid method of estimating risk of death from comorbid disease for use in longitudinal studies. Further work in larger populations is still required to refine the approach because the number of patients with any given condition in this study was relatively small.

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Topics: Risk of mortality (53%), Prospective cohort study (53%), Comorbidity (53%) ... read more

34,129 Citations

Open accessJournal ArticleDOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30183-5
Chaolin Huang1, Yeming Wang2, Xingwang Li3, Lili Ren4  +25 moreInstitutions (8)
24 Jan 2020-The Lancet
Abstract: A recent cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China, was caused by a novel betacoronavirus, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). We report the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics and treatment and clinical outcomes of these patients. All patients with suspected 2019-nCoV were admitted to a designated hospital in Wuhan. We prospectively collected and analysed data on patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection by real-time RT-PCR and next-generation sequencing. Data were obtained with standardised data collection forms shared by the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium from electronic medical records. Researchers also directly communicated with patients or their families to ascertain epidemiological and symptom data. Outcomes were also compared between patients who had been admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and those who had not.

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26,390 Citations

Open accessJournal ArticleDOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30566-3
Fei Zhou1, Ting Yu, Ronghui Du, Guohui Fan2  +16 moreInstitutions (5)
28 Mar 2020-The Lancet
Abstract: Summary Background Since December, 2019, Wuhan, China, has experienced an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported but risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding, have not been well described. Methods In this retrospective, multicentre cohort study, we included all adult inpatients (≥18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan, China) who had been discharged or had died by Jan 31, 2020. Demographic, clinical, treatment, and laboratory data, including serial samples for viral RNA detection, were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. We used univariable and multivariable logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. Findings 191 patients (135 from Jinyintan Hospital and 56 from Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital) were included in this study, of whom 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital. 91 (48%) patients had a comorbidity, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients). Multivariable regression showed increasing odds of in-hospital death associated with older age (odds ratio 1·10, 95% CI 1·03–1·17, per year increase; p=0·0043), higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (5·65, 2·61–12·23; p Interpretation The potential risk factors of older age, high SOFA score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage. Prolonged viral shedding provides the rationale for a strategy of isolation of infected patients and optimal antiviral interventions in the future. Funding Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences; National Science Grant for Distinguished Young Scholars; National Key Research and Development Program of China; The Beijing Science and Technology Project; and Major Projects of National Science and Technology on New Drug Creation and Development.

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Topics: Cohort study (56%), Retrospective cohort study (56%), Odds ratio (53%) ... read more

15,279 Citations

Journal ArticleDOI: 10.1097/01.MLR.0000182534.19832.83
Hude Quan1, Vijaya Sundararajan, Patricia Halfon2, Andrew Fong1  +6 moreInstitutions (3)
01 Nov 2005-Medical Care
Abstract: Objectives:Implementation of the International Statistical Classification of Disease and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10) coding system presents challenges for using administrative data. Recognizing this, we conducted a multistep process to develop ICD-10 coding algorithms to define C

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Topics: ICD-10 (51%), Poison control (50%)

6,319 Citations

Open accessJournal ArticleDOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30628-0
Puja Mehta1, Daniel F. McAuley2, Michael Brown3, Emilie Sanchez3  +3 moreInstitutions (5)
28 Mar 2020-The Lancet
Abstract: Published online March 13, 2020 1 Submissions should be made via our electronic submission system at thelancet/ However, in hyperinflammation, immunosuppression is likely to be beneficial. Re-analysis of data from a phase 3 randomised controlled trial of IL-1 blockade (anakinra) in sepsis, showed significant survival benefit in patients with hyperinflammation, without increased adverse events. A multicentre, randomised con trolled trial of tocilizumab (IL-6 receptor blockade, licensed for cytokine release syndrome), has been approved in patients with COVID-19: consider cytokine storm syndromes and immunosuppression

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5,489 Citations