Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States
Richard Seager,Mingfang Ting,Cuihua Li,Naomi H. Naik,Benjamin I. Cook,Jennifer A. Nakamura,Haibo Liu +6 more
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In this article, the authors use model simulations to examine changes in hydrological parameters for the southwestern United States, focusing on the near future, 2021-2040, and show declines in surface-water availability, resulting in reduced soil moisture and runoff.Abstract:
Under global warming, arid subtropical regions are expected to get drier and expand polewards. This study uses model simulations to examine changes in hydrological parameters for the southwestern United States. The predictions for 2021–2040 show declines in surface-water availability, resulting in reduced soil moisture and runoff. Global warming driven by rising greenhouse-gas concentrations is expected to cause wet regions of the tropics and mid to high latitudes to get wetter and subtropical dry regions to get drier and expand polewards1,2,3,4. Over southwest North America, models project a steady drop in precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P−E, the net flux of water at the land surface5,6,7, leading to, for example, a decline in Colorado River flow8,9,10,11. This would cause widespread and important social and ecological consequences12,13,14. Here, using new simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Five, to be assessed in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report Five, we extend previous work by examining changes in P, E, runoff and soil moisture by season and for three different water resource regions. Focusing on the near future, 2021–2040, the new simulations project declines in surface-water availability across the southwest that translate into reduced soil moisture and runoff in California and Nevada, the Colorado River headwaters and Texas.read more
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Global warming and 21st century drying
TL;DR: In this paper, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used to evaluate global drying and wetting trends in the twenty-first century.
Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States
Christopher J. Still,P. Williams,Craig D. Allen,Constance I. Millar,Thomas W. Swetnam,Joel Michaelsen,Steven W. Leavitt +6 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors compared annual tree-ring width data from 1,097 populations in the coterminous United States to climate data and evaluated site-specific tree responses to climate variations throughout the 20th century.
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The twenty‐first century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present the U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Climate Science Center (SWCSC) and National Science Foundation (NSF) as well as the NOAA Climate Assessment for the Southwest.
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Causes of the 2011–14 California Drought
Richard Seager,Martin P. Hoerling,Siegfried D. Schubert,Hailan Wang,Bradfield Lyon,Arun Kumar,Jennifer A. Nakamura,Naomi Henderson +7 more
TL;DR: The causes of the California drought during November-April winters of 2011/12-2013/14 are analyzed using observations and ensemble simulations with seven atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States
Thomas Meixner,Andrew H. Manning,David A. Stonestrom,Diana M. Allen,Hoori Ajami,Kyle W. Blasch,Andrea E. Brookfield,Christopher L. Castro,Jordan F. Clark,David Gochis,Alan L. Flint,K. Neff,Rewati Niraula,Matthew Rodell,Bridget R. Scanlon,Kamini Singha,Michelle Ann Walvoord +16 more
TL;DR: In this article, an analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts.
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