Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030
TL;DR: These projections represent a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions, which enable us to appreciate better the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends.
Abstract: Background Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. Methods and Findings Relatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios—baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic—based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. Under the optimistic scenario, which also assumes increased prevention activity, HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to drop to 3.7 million in 2030. Total tobacco-attributable deaths are projected to rise from 5.4 million in 2005 to 6.4 million in 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030 under our baseline scenario. Tobacco is projected to kill 50% more people in 2015 than HIV/AIDS, and to be responsible for 10% of all deaths globally. The three leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 are projected to include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischaemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario, and the third leading cause ahead of ischaemic heart disease in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. Conclusions These projections represent a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable us to appreciate better the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, the continued spread of HIV/AIDS in many regions, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries. The results depend strongly on the assumption that future mortality trends in poor countries will have a relationship to economic and social development similar to those that have occurred in the higher-income countries.
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University of Manchester1, University of Barcelona2, St George's Hospital3, University of Marburg4, University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio5, Imperial College London6, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia7, University of Michigan8, Hokkaido University9, University of British Columbia10
TL;DR: It is recommended that spirometry is required for the clinical diagnosis of COPD to avoid misdiagnosis and to ensure proper evaluation of severity of airflow limitation.
Abstract: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains a major public health problem. It is the fourth leading cause of chronic morbidity and mortality in the United States, and is projected to rank fifth in 2020 in burden of disease worldwide, according to a study published by the World Bank/World Health Organization. Yet, COPD remains relatively unknown or ignored by the public as well as public health and government officials. In 1998, in an effort to bring more attention to COPD, its management, and its prevention, a committed group of scientists encouraged the U.S. National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the World Health Organization to form the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD). Among the important objectives of GOLD are to increase awareness of COPD and to help the millions of people who suffer from this disease and die prematurely of it or its complications. The first step in the GOLD program was to prepare a consensus report, Global Strategy for the Diagnosis, Management, and Prevention of COPD, published in 2001. The present, newly revised document follows the same format as the original consensus report, but has been updated to reflect the many publications on COPD that have appeared. GOLD national leaders, a network of international experts, have initiated investigations of the causes and prevalence of COPD in their countries, and developed innovative approaches for the dissemination and implementation of COPD management guidelines. We appreciate the enormous amount of work the GOLD national leaders have done on behalf of their patients with COPD. Despite the achievements in the 5 years since the GOLD report was originally published, considerable additional work is ahead of us if we are to control this major public health problem. The GOLD initiative will continue to bring COPD to the attention of governments, public health officials, health care workers, and the general public, but a concerted effort by all involved in health care will be necessary.
17,023 citations
Cites background from "Projections of Global Mortality and..."
...The Global Burden of Disease Study projected that COPD, which ranked sixth as a cause of death in 1990, will become the third leading cause of death worldwide by 2020; a newer projection estimated COPD will be the fourth leading cause of death in 2030 (11)....
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...According to the projections, COPD will be the seventh leading cause of DALYs lost worldwide in 2030 (11)....
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01 May 2014
TL;DR: There is substantial global variation in the relative burden of stroke compared with IHD, and the disproportionate burden from stroke for many lower-income countries suggests that distinct interventions may be required.
Abstract: Background—Although stroke and ischemic heart disease (IHD) have several well-established risk factors in common, the extent of global variation in the relative burdens of these forms of vascular disease and reasons for any observed variation are poorly understood. Methods and Results—We analyzed mortality and disability-adjusted life-year loss rates from stroke and IHD, as well as national estimates of vascular risk factors that have been developed by the World Health Organization Burden of Disease Program. National income data were derived from World Bank estimates. We used linear regression for univariable analysis and the Cuzick test for trends. Among 192 World Health Organization member countries, stroke mortality rates exceeded IHD rates in 74 countries (39%), and stroke disability-adjusted life-year loss rates exceeded IHD rates in 62 countries (32%). Stroke mortality ranged from 12.7% higher to 27.2% lower than IHD, and stroke disability-adjusted life-year loss rates ranged from 6.2% higher to 10.2% lower than IHD. Stroke burden was disproportionately higher in China, Africa, and South America, whereas IHD burden was higher in the Middle East, North America, Australia, and much of Europe. Lower national income was associated with higher relative mortality (P 0.001) and burden of disease (P 0.001) from stroke. Diabetes mellitus prevalence and mean serum cholesterol were each associated with greater relative burdens from IHD even after adjustment for national income. Conclusions—There is substantial global variation in the relative burden of stroke compared with IHD. The disproportionate burden from stroke for many lower-income countries suggests that distinct interventions may be required. (Circulation. 2011; 124:314-323.)
7,265 citations
Journal Article•
5,064 citations
TL;DR: A reciprocal link between depression and obesity was found to increase the risk of depression, most pronounced among Americans and for clinically diagnosed depression, in addition to depression being predictive of developing obesity.
Abstract: Context: Association between obesity and depression has repeatedly been established. For treatment and prevention purposes, it is important to acquire more insight into their longitudinal interaction. Objective: To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis on the longitudinal relationship between depression, overweight, and obesity and to identify possible influencing factors. Data Sources: Studies were found using PubMed, PsycINFO, and EMBASE databases and selected on several criteria. Study Selection: Studies examining the longitudinal bidirectional relation between depression and overweight (body mass index 25-29.99) or obesity (body mass index >= 30) were selected. Data Extraction: Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) were extracted or provided by the authors. Data Synthesis: Overall, unadjusted ORs were calculated and subgroup analyses were performed for the 15 included studies (N = 58 745) to estimate the effect of possible moderators (sex, age, depression severity). Obesity at baseline increased the risk of onset of depression at follow-up (unadjusted OR, 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22-1.98; P = 60 years) but not among younger persons (aged < 20 years). Baseline depression (symptoms and disorder) was not predictive of overweight over time. However, depression increased the odds for developing obesity (OR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.33-1.87; P < .001). Subgroup analyses did not reveal specific moderators of the association. Conclusions: This meta-analysis confirms a reciprocal link between depression and obesity. Obesity was found to increase the risk of depression, most pronounced among Americans and for clinically diagnosed depression. In addition, depression was found to be predictive of developing obesity.
3,499 citations
Cites background from "Projections of Global Mortality and..."
...B OTH DEPRESSION AND OBESITY are widely spread problems with major public health implications.(1,2) Because of the high prevalence of both depression and obesity, and the fact that they both carry an increased risk for cardiovascular disease,(3,4) a potential association betweendepressionandobesityhasbeenpresumedandrepeatedlybeenexamined....
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References
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TL;DR: Findings indicate that the "diabetes epidemic" will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant, and given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.
Abstract: OBJECTIVE —The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS —Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World Health Organization member states and applied to United Nations’ population estimates for 2000 and 2030. Urban and rural populations were considered separately for developing countries. RESULTS —The prevalence of diabetes for all age-groups worldwide was estimated to be 2.8% in 2000 and 4.4% in 2030. The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030. The prevalence of diabetes is higher in men than women, but there are more women with diabetes than men. The urban population in developing countries is projected to double between 2000 and 2030. The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people >65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS —These findings indicate that the “diabetes epidemic” will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.
16,648 citations
"Projections of Global Mortality and..." refers background in this paper
...[34] estimated that the global diabetes prevalence would rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030, assuming that age–sex-specific diabetes prevalence rates remain unchanged within urban and rural populations in each region, but taking into account projected increases in urbanization to 2030....
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Book•
01 Jan 1996
TL;DR: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors" and use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020.
Abstract: This is the first in a planned series of 10 volumes that will attempt to "summarize epidemiological knowledge about all major conditions and most risk factors;...generate assessments of numbers of deaths by cause that are consistent with the total numbers of deaths by age sex and region provided by demographers;...provide methodologies for and assessments of aggregate disease burden that combine--into the Disability-Adjusted Life Year or DALY measure--burden from premature mortality with that from living with disability; and...use historical trends in main determinants to project mortality and disease burden forward to 2020." This first volume includes chapters summarizing results from the project as a whole. (EXCERPT)
7,154 citations
"Projections of Global Mortality and..." refers methods in this paper
...Following Murray and Lopez, we use the average number of years of schooling of the population above the age of 25 to reflect average education levels, and. refer to this variable as “human capital”....
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...Following Murray and Lopez, we used calendar year as a proxy measure of the impact of technological change on health status....
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...These assessments use a health gap measure, the DALY, developed by Murray and Lopez [30] to quantify the equivalent years of full health lost due to diseases and injury in WHO member states....
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...These assessments use a health gap measure, the Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY), developed by Murray and Lopez [33] to quantify the equivalent years of full health lost due to diseases and injury in WHO Member States....
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...Murray and Lopez used a variety of econometric approaches to estimate the equations of this form, including methods which take into account auto-correlation and heteroscedasticity....
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TL;DR: Despite uncertainties about mortality and burden of disease estimates, the findings suggest that substantial gains in health have been achieved in most populations, countered by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa and setbacks in adult mortality in countries of the former Soviet Union.
5,168 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: The Penn World Table as discussed by the authors is a set of national accounts economic time series covering many countries and its expenditure entries are denominated in common set of prices in a common currency so that real quantity comparisons can be made, both between countries and over time.
Abstract: The Penn World Table displays a set of national accounts economic time series covering many countries. Its expenditure entries are denominated in a common set of prices in a common currency so that real quantity comparisons can be made, both between countries and over time. It also provides information about relative prices within and between countries, as well as demographic data and capital stock estimates. This updated, revised, and expanded Mark 5 version of the table includes more countries, years, and variables of interest to economic researchers. The Table is available on personal computer diskettes and through BITNET.
3,160 citations
"Projections of Global Mortality and..." refers methods in this paper
...For earlier years, income series for WHO Member States were estimated using information from the Penn World Tables [14,15] and, for some missing years, using growth rates of real GDP per capita in local currency units....
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TL;DR: The prevention of HIV and TB, the extension of WHO DOTS programs, and a focused effort to control HIV-related TB in areas of high HIV prevalence are matters of great urgency.
Abstract: BACKGROUND: The increasing global burden of tuberculosis (TB) is linked to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. METHODS: We reviewed data from notifications of TB cases, cohort treatment outcomes, surveys of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, and HIV prevalence in patients with TB and other subgroups. Information was collated from published literature and databases held by the World Health Organization (WHO), the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (UNAIDS), the US Census Bureau, and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. RESULTS: There were an estimated 8.3 million (5th-95th centiles, 7.3-9.2 million) new TB cases in 2000 (137/100,000 population; range, 121/100,000-151/100,000). Tuberculosis incidence rates were highest in the WHO African Region (290/100,000 per year; range, 265/100,000-331/100,000), as was the annual rate of increase in the number of cases (6%). Nine percent (7%-12%) of all new TB cases in adults (aged 15-49 years) were attributable to HIV infection, but the proportion was much greater in the WHO African Region (31%) and some industrialized countries, notably the United States (26%). There were an estimated 1.8 million (5th-95th centiles, 1.6-2.2 million) deaths from TB, of which 12% (226 000) were attributable to HIV. Tuberculosis was the cause of 11% of all adult AIDS deaths. The prevalence of M tuberculosis-HIV coinfection in adults was 0.36% (11 million people). Coinfection prevalence rates equaled or exceeded 5% in 8 African countries. In South Africa alone there were 2 million coinfected adults. CONCLUSIONS: The HIV pandemic presents a massive challenge to global TB control. The prevention of HIV and TB, the extension of WHO DOTS programs, and a focused effort to control HIV-related TB in areas of high HIV prevalence are matters of great urgency.
2,762 citations
"Projections of Global Mortality and..." refers background in this paper
...The increasing global burden of tuberculosis during the 1990s has been linked to the the HIV/AIDS epidemic, and there is some evidence that the increased burden of HIV-associated TB cases also increases TB transmission rates at the community level [30]....
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