Journal ArticleDOI
Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species
Ignacio Quintero,John J. Wiens +1 more
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Adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species, for most variables and clades.Abstract:
A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 timecalibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10 000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species.read more
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Constraints on the evolution of phenotypic plasticity: limits and costs of phenotype and plasticity
Courtney J. Murren,Josh R. Auld,Hilary S. Callahan,Cameron K. Ghalambor,Corey A. Handelsman,Mary A. Heskel,Joel G. Kingsolver,Heidi J. MacLean,Joanna Masel,Heather Maughan,David W. Pfennig,Rick A. Relyea,Sarah A. Seiter,Emily Snell-Rood,Uli Steiner,Carl D. Schlichting +15 more
TL;DR: It is advocated for the view that relaxed selection and variable selection intensities are likely more important constraints to the evolution of plasticity than the costs of Plasticity, and opportunities to offset costs of phenotypes through ontogeny, amelioration of phenotypic costs across environments, and the condition-dependent hypothesis are examined.
Journal ArticleDOI
Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread among Plant and Animal Species.
TL;DR: Overall, the results suggest that local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest relative to those predicted in the next 100 years.
Journal ArticleDOI
Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival
TL;DR: This work addresses the specific changes in climate that were associated with recent population extinctions, using data from 538 plant and animal species distributed globally and shows that niche shifts appear to be far more important for avoiding extinction than dispersal, although most studies focus only on dispersal.
Journal ArticleDOI
A cautionary note on the use of Ornstein Uhlenbeck models in macroevolutionary studies.
TL;DR: It is shown that the Ornstein Uhlenbeck model is frequently incorrectly favoured over simpler models when using Likelihood ratio tests, and that many studies fitting this model use datasets that are small and prone to this problem.
Journal ArticleDOI
Gut microbes of mammalian herbivores facilitate intake of plant toxins.
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that microbes can enhance the ability of hosts to consume PSCs and therefore expand the dietary niche breadth of mammalian herbivores.
References
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Journal Article
R: A language and environment for statistical computing.
TL;DR: Copyright (©) 1999–2012 R Foundation for Statistical Computing; permission is granted to make and distribute verbatim copies of this manual provided the copyright notice and permission notice are preserved on all copies.
Journal ArticleDOI
Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas.
Robert J. Hijmans,Susan E. Cameron,Susan E. Cameron,Juan L. Parra,Peter G. Jones,Andy Jarvis +5 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas (excluding Antarctica) at a spatial resolution of 30 arc s (often referred to as 1-km spatial resolution).
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APE: Analyses of Phylogenetics and Evolution in R language
TL;DR: UNLABELLED Analysis of Phylogenetics and Evolution (APE) is a package written in the R language for use in molecular evolution and phylogenetics that provides both utility functions for reading and writing data and manipulating phylogenetic trees.
Journal ArticleDOI
Phylogenies and the Comparative Method
TL;DR: A method of correcting for the phylogeny has been proposed, which specifies a set of contrasts among species, contrasts that are statistically independent and can be used in regression or correlation studies.
Journal ArticleDOI
Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
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Extinction risk from climate change
Chris D. Thomas,Alison Cameron,Rhys E. Green,Rhys E. Green,Michel Bakkenes,Linda J. Beaumont,Yvonne C. Collingham,Barend F.N. Erasmus,Marinez Ferreira de Siqueira,Alan Grainger,Lee Hannah,Lesley Hughes,Brian Huntley,Albert S. van Jaarsveld,Guy F. Midgley,Lera Miles,Lera Miles,Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta,A. Townsend Peterson,Oliver L. Phillips,Stephen E. Williams +20 more