Rates of violence in patients classified as high risk by structured risk assessment instruments
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TLDR
After controlling for time at risk, the rate of violence in individuals classified as high risk by SRAIs shows substantial variation and assigning predetermined probabilities to future violence risk on the basis of a structured risk assessment is not supported by the current evidence base.Abstract:
Background
Rates of violence in persons identified as high risk by structured risk assessment instruments (SRAIs) are uncertain and frequently unreported by validation studies.
Aims
To analyse the variation in rates of violence in individuals identified as high risk by SRAIs.
Method
A systematic search of databases (1995-2011) was conducted for studies on nine widely used assessment tools. Where violence rates in high-risk groups were not published, these were requested from study authors. Rate information was extracted, and binomial logistic regression was used to study heterogeneity.
Results
Information was collected on 13 045 participants in 57 samples from 47 independent studies. Annualised rates of violence in individuals classified as high risk varied both across and within instruments. Rates were elevated when population rates of violence were higher, when a structured professional judgement instrument was used and when there was a lower proportion of men in a study.
Conclusions
After controlling for time at risk, the rate of violence in individuals classified as high risk by SRAIs shows substantial variation. In the absence of information on local base rates, assigning predetermined probabilities to future violence risk on the basis of a structured risk assessment is not supported by the current evidence base. This underscores the need for caution when such risk estimates are used to influence decisions related to individual liberty and public safety.read more
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
International Perspectives on the practical application of violence risk assessment : a global survey of 44 countries
Jay Singh,Sarah L. Desmarais,Cristina Hurducas,Karin Arbach-Lucioni,Carolina Condemarin,Kimberlie Dean,Michael Doyle,Jorge Oscar Folino,Verónica Godoy-Cervera,Martin Grann,Robyn Mei Yee Ho,Matthew Large,Louise Hjort Nielsen,Thierry H. Pham,Maria Franscisca Rebocho,Kim A. Reeves,Martin Rettenberger,Corine de Ruiter,Katharina Seewald,Randy K. Otto +19 more
TL;DR: It is suggested that violence risk assessment is a global phenomenon, as is the use of instruments to assist in this task, and improved feedback following risk assessments and the development of risk management plans could improve the efficacy of health services.
Journal ArticleDOI
The American Psychiatric Association Practice Guidelines for the Psychiatric Evaluation of Adults
Joel J. Silverman,Marc Galanter,Maga Jackson-Triche,Douglas G. Jacobs,James W. Lomax,Michelle Riba,Lowell Tong,Katherine E. Watkins,Laura J. Fochtmann,Richard S. Rhoads,Joel Yager +10 more
TL;DR: These Practice Guidelines for the Psychiatric Evaluation of Adults mark a transition in the American Psychiatric Association’s Practice Guidelines by using a “snowball” survey methodology to identify experts on psychiatric evaluation and solicit their input on aspects of the psychiatric evaluation that they saw as likely to improve specific patient outcomes.
Journal ArticleDOI
Communicating the results of criterion referenced prediction measures: Risk categories for the Static-99R and Static-2002R sexual offender risk assessment tools
TL;DR: It is found that the new, common STATIC risk categories not only increase concordance of risk classification (from 51% to 72%)—they also allow evaluators to make the same inferences for offenders in the same category regardless of which instrument was used to assign category membership.
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European Psychiatric Association (EPA) guidance on forensic psychiatry: evidence based assessment and treatment of mentally disordered offenders
Birgit Völlm,Martin Clarke,Vicenç Tort Herrando,Allan Seppänen,Paweł Gosek,Janusz Heitzman,Erik Bulten +6 more
TL;DR: It is found that the evidence base for forensic-psychiatric practice is weak though there is some evidence to suggest that psychiatric care produces better outcomes than criminal justice detention only.
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Prediction of violent reoffending on release from prison: derivation and external validation of a scalable tool
Seena Fazel,Zheng Chang,Zheng Chang,Thomas R. Fanshawe,Niklas Långström,Paul Lichtenstein,Henrik Larsson,Henrik Larsson,Susan Mallett +8 more
TL;DR: A prediction model in a Swedish prison population that can assist with decision making on release by identifying those who are at low risk of future violent offending, and those at high risk of violent reoffending who might benefit from drug and alcohol treatment is developed.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
The predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) among institutionalised adolescents
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the short-term predictive validity of the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) in a sample of institutionalised adolescents.
Journal ArticleDOI
Is newer better? A cross-validation of the Static-2002 and the Risk Matrix 2000 in a Danish sample of sexual offenders
TL;DR: The Static-2002 and Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) risk instruments were cross-validated and compared with Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) in a retrospective follow-up study of 304 forensic psychiatrically evaluated sexual offenders (mean time at risk=14.8 years) as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Comparison of Two Risk Assessment Instruments for Sexual Offenders
TL;DR: The current research examines the predictive validity of the Static-99 and the SORAG in predicting sexual and violent recidivism among a sample of 258 treated high-risk sexual offenders.
Journal ArticleDOI
Psychopathy, Intelligence, and Recidivism in Child Molesters Evidence of an Interaction Effect
Sarah M. Beggs,Randolph C. Grace +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors studied the relationships between psychopathy, intelligence, and offending in a sample of treated child molesters (N = 216), and regression analyses showed that psychopathy (as measured by...
Journal ArticleDOI
Long-term predictive validity of the risk matrix 2000: a comparison with the static-99 and the sex offender risk appraisal guide.
TL;DR: The Risk Matrix 2000 is predictive of recidivism above chance levels, exhibiting medium to large effect sizes, although in general, the other two instruments, particularly the SORAG, are superior.