Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends
01 Dec 2009-
TL;DR: It is increasingly unlikely any global agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), and the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 ppsmv CO2e.
Abstract: The 2007 Bali conference heard repeated calls for reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 50 per cent by 2050 to avoid exceeding the 2 degrees C threshold. While such endpoint targets dominate the policy agenda, they do not, in isolation, have a scientific basis and are likely to lead to dangerously misguided policies. To be scientifically credible, policy must be informed by an understanding of cumulative emissions and associated emission pathways. This analysis considers the implications of the 2 degrees C threshold and a range of post-peak emission reduction rates for global emission pathways and cumulative emission budgets. The paper examines whether empirical estimates of greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2008, a period typically modelled within scenario studies, combined with short-term extrapolations of current emissions trends, significantly constrains the 2000-2100 emission pathways. The paper concludes that it is increasingly unlikely any global agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Similarly, the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 ppmv CO2e and even an optimistic interpretation suggests stabilization much below 650 ppmv CO2e is improbable.
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TL;DR: Urgent action is required if carbon capture and storage is to play a large role in limiting climate change, and many technological, commercial, and political hurdles remain to be overcome.
Abstract: The capture of carbon dioxide at the point of emission from coal- or gas-burning power plants is an attractive route to reducing carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. To commercialize carbon capture, as well as transport of liquified carbon dioxide and its storage in exploited oil fields or saline formations, many technological, commercial, and political hurdles remain to be overcome. Urgent action is required if carbon capture and storage is to play a large role in limiting climate change.
1,674 citations
TL;DR: The cascading effects of rising temperatures and loss of ice and snow in the region are affecting, for example, water availability, biodiversity, biodiversity and ecosystem boundary shifts, and global feedbacks.
Abstract: The Greater Himalayas hold the largest mass of ice outside polar regions and are the source of the 10 largest rivers in Asia. Rapid reduction in the volume of Himalayan glaciers due to climate change is occurring. The cascading effects of rising temperatures and loss of ice and snow in the region are affecting, for example, water availability (amounts, seasonality), biodiversity (endemic species, predator-prey relations), ecosystem boundary shifts (tree-line movements, high-elevation ecosystem changes), and global feedbacks (monsoonal shifts, loss of soil carbon). Climate change will also have environmental and social impacts that will likely increase uncertainty in water supplies and agricultural production for human populations across Asia. A common understanding of climate change needs to be developed through regional and local-scale research so that mitigation and adaptation strategies can be identified and implemented. The challenges brought about by climate change in the Greater Himalayas can only be addressed through increased regional collaboration in scientific research and policy making.
774 citations
University of Cambridge1, Florida Institute of Technology2, Fauna & Flora International3, Zoological Society of London4, National Autonomous University of Mexico5, Simon Fraser University6, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University7, World Wide Fund for Nature8, Georgia State University9, State Street Corporation10, Conservation International11, University of Maine12, United Nations Environment Programme13, The Nature Conservancy14, University of Oxford15, World Bank16, Wetlands International17, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources18, Imperial College London19, Natural Environment Research Council20, Clemson University21, George Mason University22, University of Queensland23, Bangor University24, BirdLife International25, World Resources Institute26, Wildlife Conservation Society27, Venezuelan Institute for Scientific Research28, Center for International Forestry Research29, Ocean Conservancy30, National University of Singapore31, Temple University32, Oregon State University33, University of East Anglia34
TL;DR: 100 scientific questions that, if answered, would have the greatest impact on conservation practice and policy are identified and are expected to help identify new directions for researchers and assist funders in directing funds.
Abstract: We identified 100 scientific questions that, if answered, would have the greatest impact on conservation practice and policy. Representatives from 21 international organizations, regional sections and working groups of the Society for Conservation Biology, and 12 academics, from all continents except Antarctica, compiled 2291 questions of relevance to conservation of biological diversity worldwide. The questions were gathered from 761 individuals through workshops, email requests, and discussions. Voting by email to short-list questions, followed by a 2-day workshop, was used to derive the final list of 100 questions. Most of the final questions were derived through a process of modification and combination as the workshop progressed. The questions are divided into 12 sections: ecosystem functions and services, climate change, technological change, protected areas, ecosystem management and restoration, terrestrial ecosystems, marine ecosystems, freshwater ecosystems, species management, organizational systems and processes, societal context and change, and impacts of conservation interventions. We anticipate that these questions will help identify new directions for researchers and assist funders in directing funds.
505 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a collaborative research project, EcoCities, was presented to investigate climate change hazards, vulnerabilities and adaptation responses in the conurbation of Greater Manchester, UK.
487 citations
Cites background from "Reframing the climate change challe..."
...Reducing the risk of climate change of this magnitude will require radical social and economic shifts (Anderson & Bows, 2008; Brown, 2011; Hamilton, 2010), particularly in cities (Rosenzweig, Solecki, Hammer, & Mehrohtra, 2011)....
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TL;DR: A cumulative emissions framing is used, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere and suggests little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2°C.
Abstract: The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international communitys commitment to hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates an...
420 citations
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Abstract: This report is the first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. It covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
32,826 citations
11,070 citations
01 Jan 2013
TL;DR: In this paper, a summary of issues to assist policymakers, a technical summary, and a list of frequently-asked questions are presented, with an emphasis on physical science issues.
Abstract: Report summarizing climate change issues in 2013, with an emphasis on physical science. It includes a summary of issues to assist policymakers, a technical summary, and a list of frequently-asked questions.
7,858 citations
Met Office1, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research2, Centre national de la recherche scientifique3, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution4, University of Victoria5, University of California, Berkeley6, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory7, University of Bern8, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology9, University of Bristol10, National Center for Atmospheric Research11, University of Calgary12, Max Planck Society13, University of Maryland, College Park14
TL;DR: In this article, eleven coupled climate-carbon cycle models were used to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. But, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities.
Abstract: Eleven coupled climate–carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical emissions and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 anthropogenic emissions of CO2 for the 1850–2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order to isolate the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon cycle, and therefore the climate feedback on the atmospheric CO2 concentration growth rate. There was unanimous agreement among the models that future climate change will reduce the efficiency of the earth system to absorb the anthropogenic carbon perturbation. A larger fraction of anthropogenic CO2 will stay airborne if climate change is accounted for. By the end of the twenty-first century, this additional CO2 varied between 20 and 200 ppm for the two extreme models, the majority of the models lying between 50 and 100 ppm. The higher CO2 levels led to an additional climate warming ranging between 0.1° and 1.5°C. All models simulated a negative sensitivity for both the land and the ocean carbon cycle to future climate. However, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities. Eight models attributed most of the changes to the land, while three attributed it to the ocean. Also, a majority of the models located the reduction of land carbon uptake in the Tropics. However, the attribution of the land sensitivity to changes in net primary productivity versus changes in respiration is still subject to debate; no consensus emerged among the models.
2,630 citations