Research of the Development Feature and Trends of the World's Nuclear Industry
in 2015
Kai ZHANG
*
and Xian-jun LIN
Suzhou Nuclear Power Research Institute,
Suzhou, Jiangsu, China
E-mail: zhang_kai@cgnpc.com.cn
www.cgnpc.com.cn
Abstract--The paper introduces the current status of the
world’s nuclear power units in operation and under
construction, tracks the nuclear power policies and their
changes in the developed and developing countries and
predicts the future nuclear power development. It
summarizes some features of the world's nuclear power
development in recent years as well as some new situations
in nuclear power export market.
Keywords-Nuclear power development; Nuclear power
policy; Development trend
I. SUMMARY
In 2015, the prices of bulk energy continued to fall
because of continued adjustment and differentiation of the
world economy, sluggish recovery, shrank demand in
major economies as well as the shift of China's economic
development. International crude oil price drops to below
$30/barrel in 2016 from the peak value $147/barrel in
2008, and Bohai-Rim steam-coal price also drops to
below CNY360/t from the peak value CNY820/t in 2011,
and there is no sign of improvement in the prices of bulk
energy in the next few years. Thermal power costs
continued to decrease and coal-fired power benchmark
price was lowered repeatedly. Meanwhile, new energy
developed rapidly and both installed capacity and power
generation maintained ultrahigh-speed growth at a
double-digit rate. With the decreasing power generation
cost and the forced pressure on energy saving, nuclear
power price and installed capacity suffered unprecedented
pressure and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
has lowered the predictive value of global nuclear power
capacity in 2030 for many years in a row
[1]
. Although the
number of global nuclear power units starting
construction in 2015 was 3 times the number in 2014,
nuclear power development was slow and it was difficult
to promote new projects, and some countries have shut
down several units ahead of their operation license
expiration for economic and security reasons. Nuclear
power development was almost stagnant in developed
countries
[2]
and nuclear industry maintained a steady
development only in developing countries represented by
BRICS. The world's nuclear industry continued to
maintain low-speed development.
II. GLOBAL NUCLEAR POWER UNIT STATUS
A. Status of Units in Operation
According to the IAEA statistics
[3]
, by the end of 2015,
the number of global nuclear power units in operation
came to 438 units, having a net increase of 1 unit over that
of 2014; the total installed capacity reached 402 GWe,
having an increase of 4.705 GWe over the end of 2014.
Influenced by the Fukushima nuclear accident, Japan
continued to improve its nuclear safety standards and
considering the transformation required to adapt to the
new safety standards as well as the considerable
preparatory work required for the review to restart the
NPP, Japan shut down 5 old nuclear power units; UK also
shut down a relatively old gas-cooled reactor power plant;
Germany continued its nuclear exit program and also shut
down 1 nuclear power unit.
B. Status of Units under Construction
By the end of 2015, 71 units were under construction
worldwide, having a net increase of 1 unit over that of
2014, and total installed capacity reached 76.356 GWe,
increasing by 1.278 GWe. Specifically, in 2015, 9 units
started construction on a global scale, 3 times the number
of 2014, and 8 units were completed and put into
operation.From the perspective of construction progress
of nuclear power units, the construction schedule of NPPs
in China and South Korea has been controlled fairly,
China and South Korea have relatively mature Gen-II+
technology, so the cost is low, the construction period is
short and economic efficiency is high.Most of the nuclear
power units in construction of other countries experienced
significant delays, excessive expenditure, suspension and
other circumstances,especially 8 AP1000 units[4], 4 EPR
units[5] and some NPP in Japan, India,
Brazil,Slovakia ,Ukraine, etc.
III. GLOBAL NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT
AND PLANNING DEVELOPMENTS
Global nuclear power development still experienced
winter in 2015 and there was clear differentiation in
countries' attitudes towards nuclear power development.
In developed countries except for UK, nuclear power
development was almost stagnant. Nuclear energy only
2nd International Conference on Sustainable Development (ICSD 2016)
Copyright © 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Advances in Engineering Research, volume 94
352
developed continuously in developing countries
represented by BRICS. IAEA has also continued to lower
the forecast for the global nuclear power capacity in 2030
for many years in a row. Although some countries have
shut down several units in operation in advance and some
countries have slowed down nuclear power development,
nuclear energy is still an indispensable and major option
in the future global energy structure and the dominant
society still recognized the role of nuclear power in the
global energy structure, so nuclear power will maintain
low and steady development. At present, nuclear power
development is gradually getting rid of the shadow of the
Fukushima accident, but the future development of
nuclear power mainly depends on its own economical
efficiency.
A. The Developments of Global Nuclear Power
Planning
(1) Nuclear power development was almost stagnant
in developed countries, excluding UK.[6]
For economic reasons, the United States successively
shut down 5 nuclear power units in advance between 2013
and 2014. Although it did not shut down units in advance
in 2015, large US nuclear power operators Entergy and
Exelon have considered shutting down more nuclear
power units in advance. Although the DOE has invested a
lot of money into several identified and stressed technical
fields, including advanced nuclear reactors, small modular
reactors (SMRs), the continuing compact of low oil price
and shale gas still had a negative impact on the
development of its large and SMRs. Analysts believed
there would be almost no possibility of new large nuclear
power projects into the next decade in the United States.
Japan was slow in the implementation of the plan to
restart nuclear power. In the next future years, perhaps
only 7 reactors of the 42 Japanese reactors that can be
restarted because stringent nuclear safety standards and
relevant laws and regulations have restricted the restart of
NPP. South Korea also slowed down the pace of nuclear
power development. In the seventh basic plan for power
demand (2015-2029) that was issued in 2014, the South
Korean government reduced the proportion of nuclear
power from 41% of the previous version to 29%, which
had only a slight increase over the current proportion of
nuclear power, and South Korea does not consider life
extension for nuclear power units on expiration.The
French government is actively promoting energy
restructuring, vigorously developing new energy and
reducing the proportion of nuclear power. By 2030, the
proportion of nuclear power will be reduced to about 50%
from the current 75%. For the next decade, Sweden would
shut down 2 units of RinghalsNPP and 2 units of
OskarshamnNPP ahead of their operation license
expiration for economic reason, and another 6 units which
will probably be permanently closed in advance because
of the same reason.Germany shut down 1 unit in
2015.Belgium permanently closed 1 unit and restarted 2
units that were shut down in 2013. Canada has no plan to
build new nuclear power units in the next few years and it
will only extend the life of existing units.
Currently, the UK NPPs in operation gradually face
retirement. Under the pressure of demand for energy and
climate changes, UK gradually chooses a path that is
completely different from Germany abandoning its
nuclear program, namely it plans to build 8 new NPPs
with the installed capacity of 16 GWe before 2030.
(2) Developing countries represented by BRICS still
serve as the main engine to drive the world's
nuclear power development.
In India, Modi intended to replicate the successful
experience of Gujarat after coming to power, he made
efforts to develop infrastructure, emphasized large-scale
development of nuclear power and solar power and
planned to import 28 light water reactors. Nuclear power
capacity will increase to 35.20 GWe in 2025 from 5.80
GWe in 2014, increasing by 5 times.Brazil plans to build
4 new nuclear power units on the basis of two existing
units by 2030, with 2 in the northeast and the other 2 in
the southeast of the country. They are expected to be put
into operation between 2025 and 2030. Brazil is currently
contacting with many potential suppliers and it plans to
sign a contract with the selected suppliers in 2017 and
start construction in 2018.Russia plans to build 9 NPPs
with 21 nuclear power units before 2030, including 5 new
double-unit NPPs (8 VVER-1200 units and 2 BN-1200
sodium-cooled fast reactors); 10 VVER-1200 units in the
existing plants; and 1 BN-1200 sodium-cooled fast reactor.
In addition, it plans to build SVBR-100 prototype reactors
and it also plans to design 300MWe-level combined heat
and power (CHP) plants. However, the Russian economy
remains in the doldrums in recent years, some NPPs under
construction have taken the initiative to postpone
commissioning time and the huge nuclear power planning
is under great pressure.6 units started construction in
China in 2015. China's nuclear power development has
entered a new round of peak. In the next five years, 5 or
more units will start construction per year, serving as the
main engine of the world's nuclear power
development.South Africa plans to build 6 to 8 new
nuclear power units before 2030, adding 9,600 MWe to
the current installed capacity of nuclear power generation,
namely 1,800 MWe. So far, South Africa has approved
the launch of the nuclear power project bidding process.
(3) Among the non-BRICS developing countries, Iran,
Saudi Arabia, etc. have a huge nuclear power
development plan.
After the first NPP was put into operation, Iran
vigorously develops nuclear power construction,
specifically as follows: it plans to build 2 ACP100 units
of China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC); it plans
to build 3 new Russian VVER units at the site of
Boushehr plant; and it plans to build 4 VVER units at
another site in the country. Iran also reached a Joint
Statement of Intent on the Reconstruction of the Heavy
Water Research Reactor in Arak in Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA) with China and the United States,
and China Atomic Energy Authority and the United States
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Department of Energy will be double leader of the Six-
nation Working Group on Iranian Nuclear Issues to
jointly promote the reconstruction of the heavy water
research reactor in Arak.Saudi Arabia plans to build 16
nuclear power units before 2030. Currently, it is also
actively contacting with major nuclear power suppliers,
including CNNC.
(4) There is also positive development in some
nuclear power projects of other developing
countries.
For example, Pakistan, Turkey, Kazakhstan, Jordan,
Czech Republic, Lithuania, etc. are also carrying out
constant contact with potential suppliers and cooperation
agreements on relevant projects may be signed within 2
years. The nuclear power projects of Vietnam, the UAE,
Argentina and other countries also have a positive
progress.
B. Research and Development Status of Global
Mainstream Nuclear Power Models
As for large reactors, there hasn't been significant
progress in other nuclear power reactor types except for
HPR1000 launched by China. After the main pump of the
first reactor was returned to factory for maintenance,
SanmenNPP, which used AP1000 technology, finally
completed the installation of the first pump and the final
commissioning of the unit remains to be seen. UK ABWR
of GE-Hitachi (GEH) has completed the phase-3 Generic
Design Assessment (GDA, 4 phases in all) of the British
Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR) and it is expected to
obtain a design acceptance confirmation from ONR in
December 2017. In China, State Power Investment
Corporation has basically completed CAP1400 equipment
manufacturing industry chain, the demonstration project
has entered the final part of approval review and it is
expected to start construction in the first half of 2016
[7]
.
Especially, after National Energy Administration made a
match, China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) and
China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) jointly
set up Hualong International Nuclear Power Technology
Co., Ltd. to promote the integration and export of
Hualong technology. The first 4 HPR1000 demonstration
units have started construction and the maturity and
economical efficiency of the units remain to be verified
by demonstration projects.
As for SMRs, at present, about 45 kinds of SMRs are
developing in the world, about half of the reactor types
will be built in the next 10 years and 3 kinds of SMRs will
be put into operation in the next 4 years, namely Russian
KLT-40S, China's high temperature gas-cooled reactor
and Carem-25 of Argentina. Currently, these 3 kinds of
reactors are under construction and Russian KLT-40S is
expected to be put into operation in 2016. Technically,
several SMR models that are studied by the United States
are more advanced. However, due to the impact of
decreasing natural gas price and slow growth in power
demand, most SMRs that are studied by the United States
are experiencing a financial crisis, Babcock & Wilcox has
slashed R & D budget for mPower and Westinghouse has
suspended the research and development of SMRs, but the
research and development activities of Nuscale and
Holtec SMR are steady. UK began to actively promote the
research and development of SMRs while vigorously
promoting the construction of large reactors. So far, UK's
Nuclear Advanced Manufacturing Research Center
(NAMRC) has signed an agreement with Nuscale to
jointly promote the research and development of 50
MWe-level SMRs. The SMART of South Korea has
obtained the design license from Nuclear Safety and
Security Commission (NSSC) of South Korea. Korea
Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) has signed a
memorandum of understanding with Saudi Arabia in 2015
and it will build 2 SMRs for Saudi Arabia in the future. In
addition, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute
(KAERI) announced that it had carried out passive safety
simulation and verification tests for the reactor cavity
cooling system of the ultra-high temperature reactor
(VHTR) developed by it. VHTR demonstration unit is
expected to start construction in 2020 and it is expected to
be put into commercial operation in 2025. In China, the
overall design for CNNC's ACP100S and CGN's
ACPR50S has been completed and demonstration reactors
will start construction at the end of 2016 according to
schedule. Additionally, CNNC has signed a memorandum
of understanding with Iran and it will export ACP100S
SMRs to Iran.
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