Retrospective Voting in American National Elections.
About: This article is published in Political Science Quarterly.The article was published on 1981-01-24. It has received 167 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Voting & Instant-runoff voting.
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TL;DR: Based on survey responses from a national random sample of nearly 4,000 high school (ages 13 to 17) and college (ages 18 to 25) students, the authors uncover a dramatic gender gap in political ambition.
Abstract: Based on survey responses from a national random sample of nearly 4,000 high school (ages 13 to 17) and college (ages 18 to 25) students, we uncover a dramatic gender gap in political ambition This finding serves as striking evidence that the gap is present well before women and men enter the professions from which most candidates emerge We then use political socialization – which we gauge through a myriad of socializing agents and early life experiences – as a lens through which to explain the individual-level differences we uncover Our analysis reveals that parental encouragement, politicized educational and peer experiences, participation in competitive activities, and a sense of self-confidence propel interest in running for office But on each of these dimensions, women, particularly once they are in college, are at a disadvantage By identifying when and why gender differences in interest in running for office materialize, we uncover the origins of the gender gap in political ambition, which until now had been elusive Taken together, our results cast a cloud over prospects for gender parity in US political institutions, and suggest that concerns about substantive and symbolic representation will likely remain serious for generations to come
146 citations
Book•
01 Jan 2008
TL;DR: Hetherington et al. as discussed by the authors examined the consequences of political polarization on voter behavior, Congressional law-making, judicial selection, and foreign policy formation, and shed light on hotly debated institutional reform proposals, including changes to the electoral system and the congressional rules of engagement.
Abstract: America's polarized politics are largely disconnected from mainstream public preferences. This disconnect poses fundamental dangers for the representativeness and accountability of government, as well as the already withering public trust in it. As the 2008 presidential race kicks into gear, the political climate certainly will not become less polarized. With important issues to address --including immigration policy, health care, and the funding of the Iraq war --it is critical that essential policies not be hostage to partisan political battles. Building upon the findings of the first volume of Red and Blue Nation? (Brookings, 2006), which explored the extent of political polarization and its potential causes, this new volume delves into the consequences of the gulf between "red states" and "blue states." The authors examine the impact of these political divisions on voter behavior, Congressional law-making, judicial selection, and foreign policy formation. They shed light on hotly debated institutional reform proposals --including changes to the electoral system and the congressional rules of engagement --and ultimately present research-supported policies and reforms for alleviating the underlying causes of political polarization. While most discussion of polarization takes place in separate spheres of journalism and academia, Red and Blue Nation? brings together a unique set of voices with a wide variety of perspectives to enrich our understanding of the issue. Written in a broad, accessible style, it is a resource for anyone interested in the future of electoral politics in America. Contributors include Marc Hetherington and John G. Geer (Vanderbilt University), Deborah Jordan Brooks (Dartmouth College), Martin P. Wattenberg (University of California, Irvine), Barbara Sinclair and Joel D. Aberbach (UCLA), Christopher H. Foreman (University of Maryland), Keith Krehbiel (Stanford University), Sarah A. Binder, Benjamin Wittes, Jonathan Rauch, and William A. Galston (Brookings), Martin Shapiro (University of California-Berkeley), Peter Beinart (Council on Foreign Relations), James Q. Wilson (Pepperdine University), John Ferejohn and Larry Diamond (Hoover Institution), Laurel Harbridge (Stanford University), Andrea L. Campbell (MIT), and Eric M. Patashnik (University of Virginia).
45 citations
DOI•
01 Jan 2019
Abstract: Remote Controlled Restraint: The Effect of Remote Warfighting Technology on Crisis Escalation Erik Lin-Greenberg How do technologies that remove warfighters from the front lines affect the frequency and intensity of military confrontations between states? Many scholars and policymakers fear that weapons that reduce the risks and costs of war – in blood and treasure – will lead states to resort to force more frequently during crises, destabilizing the international security environment. These concerns have featured prominently in debates surrounding the proliferation and use of remote warfighting technologies, such as drones. This project sets out to evaluate whether and how drones affect crisis escalation. Specifically, do drones allow decisionmakers to deploy military forces more frequently during interstate crises? Once deployed, how do these systems affect escalation dynamics? I argue that drones can help control escalation, raising questions about scholarly theories that suggest the world is more dangerous and less stable when technology makes conflict cheaper and less risky. At the core of this project is a theory of technology-enabled escalation control. The central argument is that technologies like drones that remove friendly forces from the battlefield may lead states to use force more frequently, but decrease the likelihood of escalation when used in lieu of inhabited platforms. More specifically, these technologies lower the political barriers to initiating military operations during crises, primarily by eliminating the risk of friendly force casualties and the associated domestic political consequences for launching military operations. At the same time, removing personnel from harm’s way may reduce demand for escalatory reprisals after remotely operated systems are lost to hostile action. Drones can also help to mitigate escalatory spirals by collecting intelligence that overcomes information asymmetries that often contribute to armed conflict, helping facilitate more measured decision-making and tailored targeting of enemy forces. By more fully considering how technology affects escalatory dynamics after the initial use of force, technology-enabled escalation control theory advances our understanding of the link between technology and conflict. I test the theory using a multi-method approach that combines case studies with original experiments embedded in surveys fielded on public and military samples. The dissertation also introduces a new research method for international relations research: experimental manipulations embedded in wargames with military participants. In Chapter 1 and 2, I define the concept of crisis escalation and review the literature that examines the effect of technology on escalation and conflict dynamics. I then introduce the theory of technology-enabled escalation control and outline four mechanisms that undergird the theory – increased initiation, tempered/tailored targeting, restrained retaliation, and amplified aggression. Each of these hypothesized mechanisms describes ways in which emerging technologies can prevent crises from escalating into broader or more intense conflicts. Chapter 3 describes each component of the multi-method research design that I use to test the theory in Chapters 4 through 7. Chapter 4 uses experiments embedded in surveys and wargames to assess whether and how drones allow states to more frequently initiate military operations. Chapter 5 tests whether drones enable decisionmakers to control escalation by restraining retaliation after attacks on a state’s drones. Chapter 6 and 7 test the theory in the context of U.S drone use during the Cold War and Israeli drone use from the 1960s through late-2010s. The findings of these empirical tests provide strong support for technology-enabled escalation control. In Chapter 8, I conclude with a summary of the analysis and test the generalizability of the theory beyond the state use of drones. I find that tenets of technology-enabled escalation control explain escalation dynamics associated with U.S. cyber operations against North Korea and Hezbollah’s use of drones against Israel and during the Syrian Civil War. The chapter also maps out pathways for future research and identifies policy implications. My findings suggest the growing proliferation of drones will increase the frequency of military confrontations during crises, yet these confrontations are unlikely to escalate. Even though drones may help control escalation, clearer doctrine, rules of engagement, and international agreements to govern their use will help to further avoid crisis escalation and conflict.
37 citations
01 Jan 2016
TL;DR: This article explored the use of qualitative social psychology in political science and found that the qualitative research within political science was dominated by quantitative realist methodologies and that existing qualitative research methods were ill-equipped to accommodate a linguistic interpretation of events.
Abstract: This thesis explores the use of qualitative social psychology in political science. The reason for conducting the research was the realisation that research within political science was dominated by quantitative realist methodologies and that existing qualitative research methods were ill-equipped to accommodate a linguistic interpretation of events. This thesis does not necessarily aim to supplant existing methodologies rather it asks how qualitative social psychology could compliment and facilitate existing methodological approaches. Qualitative social psychology is increasingly underpinned by social constructionism (Willig, 2001); that meaning is based on perspectives and that through their use of language individuals constantly make and remake the social (Burr, 2003; 2015). This methodology is relativistic. It suggests that meaning is specific and relative to social, cultural and historical moments (Parker, 1998) and draws on interpretivism suggesting that unlike in the hard sciences truth and evidence of social issues such as poverty is dependent on the interpretation by people (Schwandt, 2003). The thesis will use a constructionist thematised method to exemplify this approach. This method shares common ground with a range of methods used in qualitative social psychology that builds on initial thematised coding and consequently may lead to a broader understanding of the possibilities of using this approach in political science. To explore the possibilities of using qualitative psychology the thesis considered changes in attitudes to voting of the 18-24 cohort in the UK. The turnout of this cohort at general elections has declined since the 1992 general election and this has been problematic to explain using existing political science methodologies. A group of forty participants that might have typically taken part in a study investigating this topic were recruited. These were group interviewed and their talk was transcribed and then analysed to identify discursive codes and themes.
31 citations
References
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that political competition fails to inform constituents of the costs of forgone political alternatives, which prevents the adoption of welfare enhancing reforms of public institutions and policies.
Abstract: Selection of efficient institutions or policies in politics requires constituents to estimate the net benefits of political reforms. Political competition fails to inform constituents of the costs of forgone political alternatives. Ignorance of ‘political opportunity costs’ prevents the adoption of welfare enhancing reforms of public institutions and policies. The empirical record supports this contention.
3,134 citations
TL;DR: The authors argued that the Duverger/socialist mass-party model is not the only model for parties and pointed out that this assumption is misconception, and argued that it is misconstrued.
Abstract: Many recent discussions of the decline of party are predicated on the assumption that the Duverger/socialist mass-party model is the only model for parties. We contend that this assumption is misco...
2,494 citations
TL;DR: In the pure theory of electoral competition, citizens compare the platforms of the candidates and vote for the one whose platform is preferred as discussed by the authors. But these models have another feature that is quite as disturbing as their instability.
Abstract: In the pure theory of electoral competition, citizens compare the platforms of the candidates and vote for the one whose platform is preferred. Candidate strategies are identified with promises about future performance in office. Models of this sort have been developed in both static [McKelvey (1975)] and dynamic [Kramer (1977)I settings, and all appear to have the property that if the set of alternatives is "large enough" in some sense, equilibrium platforms rarely exist. But these models have another feature that is quite as disturbing as their instability. In the static setting discussed by McKelvey, little attention is paid to the possibility that, once in office, the politician's preferences may diverge from those of his constituents and that he may therefore choose policies at variance from his platform. Instead it is simply assumed that promises will be kept whether or not such behavior is congruent with the interest of the officeholder. It is sometimes argued that an "enforcement" mechanism may exist to discipline politicians for failing to keep promises, but without a specification of the mechanism it is not obvious that it would be in the interests of the
1,995 citations
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TL;DR: Growth and democracy are analyzed for a panel of about 100 countries from 1960 to 1990 as mentioned in this paper, showing that the overall effect of democracy on growth is weakly negative and there is a suggestion of a nonlinear relationship in which more democracy enhances growth at low levels of political freedom but depresses growth when a moderate level of freedom has already been attained.
Abstract: Growth and democracy (subjective indexes of political freedom) are analyzed for a panel of about 100 countries from 1960 to 1990 The favorable effects on growth include maintenance of the rule of law, free markets, small government consumption, and high human capital Once these kinds of variables and the initial level of real per capita GDP are held constant, the overall effect of democracy on growth is weakly negative There is a suggestion of a nonlinear relationship in which more democracy enhances growth at low levels of political freedom but depresses growth when a moderate level of freedom has already been attained Improvements in the standard of living—measured by GDP, health status, and education—substantially raise the probability that political freedoms will grow These results allow for predictions about which countries will become more or less democratic over time
1,892 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue for the systematic incorporation of political factors that shape the electoral consequences of economic performance, and show that considerations of the ideological image of the government, its electoral base, and the clarity of its political responsibility are essential to understand the effects of economic conditions on voting for or against incumbents.
Abstract: A large literature has demonstrated that such economic factors as growth, inflation, and unemployment affect the popularity of incumbents within many democratic countries. However, cross-national aggregate analyses of "economic voting" show only weak and inconsistent economic effects. We argue for the systematic incorporation of political factors that shape the electoral consequences of economic performance. Multivariate analyses of 102 elections in 19 industrialized democracies are used to estimate the cross-national impact of economic and political factors. The analyses show that considerations of the ideological image of the government, its electoral base, and the clarity of its political responsibility are essential to understanding the effects of economic conditions on voting for or against incumbents.
1,782 citations