Open AccessPosted Content
Review of Kernel Learning for Intra-Hour Solar Forecasting with Infrared Sky Images and Cloud Dynamic Feature Extraction
Reads0
Chats0
TLDR
In this paper, the authors proposed a probabilistic multi-task intra-hour solar forecasting algorithm to increase the penetration of photovoltaic systems in power grids. But, the accuracy of the proposed algorithm was only 8 minutes ahead with a resolution of 15 seconds.Abstract:
The uncertainty of the energy generated by photovoltaic systems incurs an additional cost for a guaranteed, reliable supply of energy (i.e., energy storage). This investigation aims to decrease the additional cost by introducing probabilistic multi-task intra-hour solar forecasting (feasible in real time applications) to increase the penetration of photovoltaic systems in power grids. The direction of moving clouds is estimated in consecutive sequences of sky images by extracting features of cloud dynamics with the objective of forecasting the global solar irradiance that reaches photovoltaic systems. The sky images are acquired using a low-cost infrared sky imager mounted on a solar tracker. The solar forecasting algorithm is based on kernel learning methods, and uses the clear sky index as predictor and features extracted from clouds as feature vectors. The proposed solar forecasting algorithm achieved 16.45\% forecasting skill 8 minutes ahead with a resolution of 15 seconds. In contrast, previous work reached 15.4\% forecasting skill with the resolution of 1 minute. Therefore, this solar forecasting algorithm increases the performances with respect to the state-of-the-art, providing grid operators with the capability of managing the inherent uncertainties of power grids with a high penetration of photovoltaic systems.read more
References
More filters
Journal ArticleDOI
Gradient-based learning applied to document recognition
Yann LeCun,Léon Bottou,Léon Bottou,Yoshua Bengio,Yoshua Bengio,Yoshua Bengio,Patrick Haffner +6 more
TL;DR: In this article, a graph transformer network (GTN) is proposed for handwritten character recognition, which can be used to synthesize a complex decision surface that can classify high-dimensional patterns, such as handwritten characters.
Book
The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory
TL;DR: Setting of the learning problem consistency of learning processes bounds on the rate of convergence ofLearning processes controlling the generalization ability of learning process constructing learning algorithms what is important in learning theory?
Book
Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning
TL;DR: Probability Distributions, linear models for Regression, Linear Models for Classification, Neural Networks, Graphical Models, Mixture Models and EM, Sampling Methods, Continuous Latent Variables, Sequential Data are studied.
Book
Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning
TL;DR: The treatment is comprehensive and self-contained, targeted at researchers and students in machine learning and applied statistics, and deals with the supervised learning problem for both regression and classification.
Journal ArticleDOI
A tutorial on support vector regression
TL;DR: This tutorial gives an overview of the basic ideas underlying Support Vector (SV) machines for function estimation, and includes a summary of currently used algorithms for training SV machines, covering both the quadratic programming part and advanced methods for dealing with large datasets.