Rising Consumption of Meat and Milk in Developing Countries Has Created a New Food Revolution
TL;DR: By 2020, developing countries will consume 107 million metric tons (mmt) more meat and 177 mmt more milk than they did in 1996/1998, dwarfing developed-country increases of 19 mmt for meat and 32mmt for milk.
Abstract: People in developing countries currently consume on average one-third the meat and one-quarter of the milk products per capita compared to the richer North, but this is changing rapidly. The amount of meat consumed in developing countries over the past has grown three times as much as it did in the developed countries. The Livestock Revolution is primarily driven by demand. Poor people everywhere are eating more animal products as their incomes rise above poverty level and as they become urbanized. By 2020, the share of developing countries in total world meat consumption will expand from 52% currently to 63%. By 2020, developing countries will consume 107 million metric tons (mmt) more meat and 177 mmt more milk than they did in 1996/1998, dwarfing developed-country increases of 19 mmt for meat and 32 mmt for milk. The projected increase in livestock production will require annual feed consumption of cereals to rise by nearly 300 mmt by 2020. Nonetheless, the inflation-adjusted prices of livestock and feed commodities are expected to fall marginally by 2020, compared to precipitous declines in the past 20 y. Structural change in the diets of billions of people is a primal force not easily reversed by governments. The incomes and nutrition of millions of rural poor in developing countries are improving. Yet in many cases these dietary changes also create serious environmental and health problems that require active policy involvement to prevent irreversible consequences.
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TL;DR: Rapid increases in the rates of obesity and overweight are widely documented, from urban and rural areas in the poorest countries of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to populations in countries with higher income levels.
Abstract: Decades ago, discussion of an impending global pandemic of obesity was thought of as heresy. But in the 1970s, diets began to shift towards increased reliance upon processed foods, increased away-from-home food intake, and increased use of edible oils and sugar-sweetened beverages. Reductions in physical activity and increases in sedentary behavior began to be seen as well. The negative effects of these changes began to be recognized in the early 1990s, primarily in low- and middle-income populations, but they did not become clearly acknowledged until diabetes, hypertension, and obesity began to dominate the globe. Now, rapid increases in the rates of obesity and overweight are widely documented, from urban and rural areas in the poorest countries of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to populations in countries with higher income levels. Concurrent rapid shifts in diet and activity are well documented as well. An array of large-scale programmatic and policy measures are being explored in a few countries; however, few countries are engaged in serious efforts to prevent the serious dietary challenges being faced.
3,215 citations
TL;DR: This work provides a sense of change both in the United States, Europe, and the lower- and middle-income countries of Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America as the burden of obesity is shifting towards the poor.
Abstract: OBJECTIVE: This paper explores the major changes in diet and physical activity patterns around the world and focuses on shifts in obesity DESIGN: Review of results focusing on large-scale surveys and nationally representative studies of diet, activity, and obesity among adults and children SUBJECTS: Youth and adults from a range of countries around the world MEASUREMENTS: The International Obesity Task Force guidelines for defining overweight and obesity are used for youth and the body mass index Z25 kg/m 2 and 30 cutoffs are used, respectively, for adults RESULTS: The nutrition transition patterns are examined from the time period termed the receding famine pattern to one dominated by nutrition-related noncommunicable diseases (NR-NCDs) The speed of dietary and activity pattern shifts is great, particularly in the developing world, resulting in major shifts in obesity on a worldwide basis Data limitations force us to examine data on obesity trends in adults to provide a broader sense of changes in obesity over time, and then to examine the relatively fewer studies on youth Specifically, this work provides a sense of change both in the United States, Europe, and the lower- and middle-income countries of Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America CONCLUSION: The paper shows that changes are occurring at great speed and at earlier stages of the economic and social development of each country The burden of obesity is shifting towards the poor International Journal of Obesity (2004) 28, S2–S9 doi:101038/sjijo0802804
1,524 citations
TL;DR: Owing to the scope and complexity of the obesity epidemic, prevention strategies and policies across multiple levels are needed in order to have a measurable effect and should include high-level global policies from the international community and coordinated efforts by governments, organizations, communities and individuals to positively influence behavioural change.
Abstract: The worldwide increase in obesity has been driven by global trade liberalization, economic growth and rapid urbanization. Owing to the scope and complexity of the obesity epidemic, prevention strategies and policies across multiple levels are needed in order to have a measurable effect. Although many putative causes of the obesity epidemic exist, in this Review the effect of globalization on global trends in obesity prevalence is discussed and population-based interventions from several countries are reviewed. The authors make broad policy recommendations for obesity and chronic disease prevention at the global population level.
1,153 citations
TL;DR: This article documents the high levels of overweight and obesity found across higher- and lower-income countries and the global shift of this burden toward the poor and toward urban and rural populations.
1,144 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the Green Revolution (GR) has played an outstanding role in feeding a hungry world and improving global food security, and it also generated its own environmental problems also productivity increase is now slow or static, and achieving the productivity gains needed to ensure food security will therefore require more than a repeat performance of the GR of the past, while the key challenges today is to replace these varieties with new ones for better sustainability.
Abstract: Wheat is fundamental to human civilization and has played an outstanding role in feeding a hungry world and improving global food security The crop contributes about 20 % of the total dietary calories and proteins worldwide Food demand in the developing regions is growing by 1 % annually and varies from 170 kg in Central Asia to 27 kg in East and South Africa The developing regions (including China and Central Asia) account for roughly 53 % of the total harvested area and 50 % of the production Unprecedented productivity growth from the Green Revolution (GR) since the 1960s dramatically transformed world wheat production, benefitting both producers and consumers through low production costs and low food prices Modern wheat varieties were adopted more rapidly than any other technological innovation in the history of agriculture, recently reaching about 90 % of the area in developing regions One of the key challenges today is to replace these varieties with new ones for better sustainability While the GR “spared” essential ecosystems from conversion to agriculture, it also generated its own environmental problems Also productivity increase is now slow or static Achieving the productivity gains needed to ensure food security will therefore require more than a repeat performance of the GR of the past Future demand will need to be achieved through sustainable intensification that combines better crop resistance to diseases and pests, adaptation to warmer climates, and reduced use of water, fertilizer, labor and fuel Meeting these challenges will require concerted efforts in research and innovation to develop and deploy viable solutions Substantive investment will be required to realize sustainable productivity growth through better technologies and policy and institutional innovations that facilitate farmer adoption and adaptation The enduring lessons from the GR and the recent efforts for sustainable intensification of cereal systems in South Asia and other regions provide useful insights for the future
953 citations
Cites background from "Rising Consumption of Meat and Milk..."
...This has largely been driven by rapid economic growth in highly populated regions in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America leading to increased demand for poultry and livestock products from more affluent consumers (Delgado, 2003)....
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TL;DR: A revolution is taking place in global agriculture that has profound implications for human health, livelihoods and the environment as mentioned in this paper, and governments and industry must prepare for this continuing revolution with long-term policies and investments that will satisfy consumer demand, improve nutrition, direct income growth opportunities to those who need them most, and alleviate environmental and public health stress.
Abstract: A revolution is taking place in global agriculture that has profound implications for human health, livelihoods and the environment. Population growth, urbanization and income growth in developing countries are fuelling a massive increase in demand for food of animal origin. These changes in the diets of billions of people could significantly improve the well-being of many rural poor. Governments and industry must prepare for this continuing revolution with long-term policies and investments that will satisfy consumer demand, improve nutrition, direct income growth opportunities to those who need them most, and alleviate environmental and public health stress.
1,578 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this paper, a team of researchers from the International Food Policy Research Institute, the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) collaborated to produce a comprehensive and even-handed attempt at defining the nature, extent, scope, and implications of what they termed the "Livestock Revolution" in developing countries.
Abstract: A team of researchers from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) collaborated to produce this comprehensive and even-handed attempt at defining the nature, extent, scope, and implications of what they term the "Livestock Revolution” in developing countries. Looking forward to 2020, they argue convincingly that the structural shifts in world agriculture being brought about by shifts in developing-country demand for foods of animal origin will continue and that increasingly global markets have the ability to supply both cereal and animal products in desired quantities without undue price rises. They emphasize, however, that policy decisions taken for the livestock sector of developing countries will determine whether the Livestock Revolution helps or harms the world's poor and malnourished. The report emphasizes the importance of continued investment in both research on and development of animal and feed grain production and processing, and the need for policy action to help small, poor livestock producers become better integrated with commercial livestock marketing and processing. It details a host of requirements in the area of technology development for production and processing of livestock products, potential benefits from new technologies, and critical policy issues for environmental conservation and protection of public health.
764 citations
Book•
01 Jun 1995
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the global food security picture through 2020, using a model that incorporates 35 individual countries and regions and 17 commodities to estimate supply and demand for food, and concluded that if governments and the international community maintain current levels of commitment to agricultural growth through cost-effective investment in agricultural research, extension, irrigation and water development, human capital, and rural infrastructure, the world as a whole will not experience overwhelming pressure but food security in many developing countries, particularly in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, will improve little.
Abstract: This paper examines the global food security picture through 2020, using a model that incorporates 35 individual countries and regions and 17 commodities to estimate supply and demand for food. It concludes that if governments and the international community maintain current levels of commitment to agricultural growth through cost-effective investment in agricultural research, extension, irrigation and water development, human capital, and rural infrastructure, the world as a whole will not experience overwhelming pressure but food security in many developing countries, particularly in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, will improve little. The paper also presents a more pessimistic scenario brought about by cuts in investment in agriculture and a more hopeful scenario based on increased investment.
339 citations
Book•
30 Jun 2001
307 citations