Risk for Transportation of Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China.
Zhanwei Du,Lin Wang,Simon Cauchemez,Xiaoke Xu,Xianwen Wang,Benjamin J. Cowling,Lauren Ancel Meyers,Lauren Ancel Meyers +7 more
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TLDR
The probability of transportation of COVID-19 from Wuhan to 369 other cities in China before the quarantine is estimated to be >50% in 130 (95% CI 89–190) cities and >99% in the 4 largest metropolitan areas.Citations
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Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China: Summary of a Report of 72 314 Cases From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
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The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
Matteo Chinazzi,Jessica T. Davis,Marco Ajelli,Corrado Gioannini,Maria Litvinova,Stefano Merler,Ana Pastore y Piontti,Kunpeng Mu,Luca Rossi,Kaiyuan Sun,Cécile Viboud,Xinyue Xiong,Hongjie Yu,M. Elizabeth Halloran,M. Elizabeth Halloran,Ira M. Longini,Alessandro Vespignani,Alessandro Vespignani +17 more
TL;DR: The results suggest that early detection, hand washing, self-isolation, and household quarantine will likely be more effective than travel restrictions at mitigating this pandemic, and sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
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The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China.
Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Moritz U. G. Kraemer,Chia-Hung Yang,Bernardo Gutierrez,Bernardo Gutierrez,Chieh-Hsi Wu,Brennan Klein,David M. Pigott,Louis du Plessis,Nuno R. Faria,Ruoran Li,William P. Hanage,John S. Brownstein,John S. Brownstein,Maylis Layan,Maylis Layan,Alessandro Vespignani,Alessandro Vespignani,Huaiyu Tian,Christopher Dye,Oliver G. Pybus,Oliver G. Pybus,Samuel V. Scarpino +23 more
TL;DR: Real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history are used to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures.
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High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
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References
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Brief Communication MEGA6: Molecular Evolutionary Genetics Analysis Version 6.0
TL;DR: The Molecular Evolutionary Genetics Analysis (MEGA) software as discussed by the authors provides facilities for building sequence alignments, inferring phylogenetic histories, and conducting molecular evolutionary analysis, including the inference of timetrees.
Journal ArticleDOI
Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia.
Qun Li,Xuhua Guan,Peng Wu,Xiaoye Wang,Lei Zhou,Yeqing Tong,Ruiqi Ren,Kathy Leung,Eric H. Y. Lau,Jessica Y. Wong,Xuesen Xing,Nijuan Xiang,Yang Wu,Chao Li,Chen Qi,Dan Li,Tian Liu,Jing Zhao,Man Liu,Wenxiao Tu,Chuding Chen,Lianmei Jin,Rui Yang,Qi Wang,Suhua Zhou,Rui Wang,Hui Liu,Yingbo Luo,Yuan Liu,Ge Shao,Huan Li,Zhongfa Tao,Yang Yang,Yang Yang,Zhiqiang Deng,Boxi Liu,Zhitao Ma,Yanping Zhang,Guoqing Shi,Tommy Tsan-Yuk Lam,Joseph T. Wu,George F. Gao,George F. Gao,Benjamin J. Cowling,Bo Yang,Gabriel M. Leung,Zijian Feng +46 more
TL;DR: There is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019 and considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere.
Journal ArticleDOI
A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster.
Jasper Fuk-Woo Chan,Shuofeng Yuan,Kin-Hang Kok,Kelvin K. W. To,Kelvin K. W. To,Hin Chu,Jin Yang,Fanfan Xing,Jieling Liu,Cyril C. Y. Yip,Rosana W.S. Poon,Hoi Wah Tsoi,Simon Kam Fai Lo,Kwok-Hung Chan,Vincent Kwok-Man Poon,Wan Mui Chan,Jonathan Daniel Ip,Jian Piao Cai,Vincent C.C. Cheng,Honglin Chen,Honglin Chen,Christopher K.M. Hui,Kwok-Yung Yuen +22 more
TL;DR: The findings are consistent with person-to-person transmission of this novel coronavirus in hospital and family settings, and the reports of infected travellers in other geographical regions.
Journal ArticleDOI
Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study.
TL;DR: It is inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks, and that other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks.
Journal ArticleDOI
Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong
Christl A. Donnelly,Azra C. Ghani,Gabriel M. Leung,Anthony J. Hedley,Christophe Fraser,Steven Riley,Laith J. Abu-Raddad,Lai-Ming Ho,Thuan-Quoc Thach,Patsy Chau,King Pan Chan,Tai Hing Lam,Lai-Yin Tse,Thomas Tsang,SH Liu,J. Kong,Edith M. C. Lau,Neil M. Ferguson,Roy M. Anderson +18 more
TL;DR: The epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong was assessed and public-health interventions included encouragement to report to hospital rapidly after the onset of clinical symptoms, contact tracing for confirmed and suspected cases, and quarantining, monitoring, and restricting the travel of contacts.
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