Risk Maps for the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Poultry
G.J. Boender,Thomas J. Hagenaars,Annemarie Bouma,Gonnie Nodelijk,A.R.W. Elbers,Mart C.M. de Jong,Michiel van Boven +6 more
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TLDR
The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms.Abstract:
Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms.read more
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Pathogenic landscapes: Interactions between land, people, disease vectors, and their animal hosts
Eric F. Lambin,Eric F. Lambin,Annelise Tran,Sophie O. Vanwambeke,Catherine Linard,Valérie Soti +5 more
TL;DR: A static view of the "pathogenecity" of landscapes overlays maps of the spatial distribution of vectors and their habitats, animal hosts carrying specific pathogens and their habitat, and susceptible human hosts and their land use is preferred.
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Unravelling transmission trees of infectious diseases by combining genetic and epidemiological data
Rolf J. F. Ypma,Arnaud Bataille,Arnaud Bataille,Arjan Stegeman,Guus Koch,Jacco Wallinga,W. M. van Ballegooijen +6 more
TL;DR: A likelihood-based framework to integrate genetic and epidemiological data is presented, estimating probabilities of infection by taking weighted averages over the set of possible transmission trees and shows that the combined approach estimates the transmission tree with higher correctness and resolution than analyses based on genetic or Epidemiological data alone.
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Estimation of transmission parameters of H5N1 avian influenza virus in chickens.
Annemarie Bouma,Ivo Claassen,Ketut Natih,Don Klinkenberg,Christl A. Donnelly,Guus Koch,Michiel van Boven +6 more
TL;DR: Simulations based on the estimated parameters indicate that herd immunity may be obtained if at least 80% of chickens in a flock are vaccinated, and the implications for the control of H5N1 avian influenza virus in areas where it is endemic are discussed.
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Mapping the basic reproduction number (R0) for vector-borne diseases: A case study on bluetongue virus
Nienke Hartemink,Bethan V. Purse,R. Meiswinkel,Heidi E. Brown,A.A. de Koeijer,Armin R.W. Elbers,G.J. Boender,David J. Rogers,J.A.P. Heesterbeek +8 more
TL;DR: A methodology to create R₀ maps for vector-borne diseases, using bluetongue virus as a case study, and involves integrating vector-abundance data with statistical approaches to predict abundance from satellite imagery and with the biologically mechanistic modelling that underlies R⁀.
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Poultry movement networks in Cambodia: implications for surveillance and control of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI/H5N1).
Maria D. Van Kerkhove,Sirenda Vong,Javier Guitian,Davun Holl,Punam Mangtani,Sorn San,Azra C. Ghani +6 more
TL;DR: Most poultry movement occurs via middlemen into Phnom Penh making live bird wet markets in PhnomPenh a potential hub for the spread of H5N1 and ideal for surveillance and control.
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