Risk of hospital admission with covid-19 among teachers compared with healthcare workers and other adults of working age in Scotland, March 2020 to July 2021: population based case-control study.
TL;DR: The risk of hospital admission with covid-19 and severe C19 among teachers and their household members, overall and compared with healthcare workers and adults of working age in the general population, was determined in this paper.
Abstract: Objective To determine the risk of hospital admission with covid-19 and severe covid-19 among teachers and their household members, overall and compared with healthcare workers and adults of working age in the general population. Design Population based nested case-control study. Setting Scotland, March 2020 to July 2021, during defined periods of school closures and full openings in response to covid-19. Participants All cases of covid-19 in adults aged 21 to 65 (n=132 420) and a random sample of controls matched on age, sex, and general practice (n=1 306 566). Adults were identified as actively teaching in a Scottish school by the General Teaching Council for Scotland, and their household members were identified through the unique property reference number. The comparator groups were adults identified as healthcare workers in Scotland, their household members, and the remaining general population of working age. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was hospital admission with covid-19, defined as having a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2 during hospital admission, being admitted to hospital within 28 days of a positive test result, or receiving a diagnosis of covid-19 on discharge from hospital. Severe covid-19 was defined as being admitted to intensive care or dying within 28 days of a positive test result or assigned covid-19 as a cause of death. Results Most teachers were young (mean age 42), were women (80%), and had no comorbidities (84%). The risk (cumulative incidence) of hospital admission with covid-19 was Conclusion Compared with adults of working age who are otherwise similar, teachers and their household members were not found to be at increased risk of hospital admission with covid-19 and were found to be at lower risk of severe covid-19. These findings should reassure those who are engaged in face-to-face teaching.
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TL;DR: In this paper , a stochastic individual-based model of secondary school infection was used to quantify pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of implemented control measures.
Abstract: A range of measures have been implemented to control within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England, including the self-isolation of close contacts and twice weekly mass testing of secondary school pupils using lateral flow device tests (LFTs). Despite reducing transmission, isolating close contacts can lead to high levels of absences, negatively impacting pupils. To quantify pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of implemented control measures, we fit a stochastic individual-based model of secondary school infection to both swab testing data and secondary school absences data from England, and then simulate outbreaks from 31st August 2020 until 23rd May 2021. We find that the pupil-to-pupil reproduction number, Rschool, has remained below 1 on average across the study period, and that twice weekly mass testing using LFTs has helped to control pupil-to-pupil transmission. We also explore the potential benefits of alternative containment strategies, finding that a strategy of repeat testing of close contacts rather than isolation, alongside mass testing, substantially reduces absences with only a marginal increase in pupil-to-pupil transmission.
21 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a two-sample Mendelian randomization approach using summary statistics from the largest genome-wide association meta-analysis was adopted to evaluate the total causal effects of genetically determined education attainment and intelligence on COVID-19 outcomes.
Abstract: Background: Evidence of socioeconomic inequality in COVID-19-related outcomes is emerging, with a higher risk of infection and mortality observed among individuals with lower education attainment. We aimed to evaluate the potential interventions against COVID-19 from the socioeconomic perspective, including improvement in education and intelligence. Methods: With a two-sample Mendelian randomization approach using summary statistics from the largest genome-wide association meta-analysis, univariable analysis was adopted to evaluate the total causal effects of genetically determined education attainment and intelligence on COVID-19 outcomes. Multivariable analysis was performed to dissect the potential mechanisms. Results: Genetic predisposition to higher education attainment by 1 SD (4.2 years) was independently associated with reduced risk of COVID-19 severity (OR = 0.508 [95% CI: 0.417–0.617]; p < 0.001). Genetically higher education attainment also lowered the risk of COVID-19 hospitalization (0.685 [0.593–0.791]; p < 0.001), but the association was attenuated after adjustment for beta estimates of intelligence in multivariable analysis. Genetically higher intelligence was associated with reduced risk of COVID-19 hospitalization (0.780 [0.655–0.930]; p = 0.006), with attenuation of association after adjustment for education attainment. Null association was observed for genetically determined education attainment and intelligence with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Conclusion: Education may act independently and jointly with intelligence in improving the COVID-19 outcomes. Improving education may potentially alleviate the COVID-19-related health inequality.
8 citations
TL;DR: The two-dose BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine has demonstrated high efficacy against COVID-19 disease in clinical trials of children and young people (CYP) as mentioned in this paper .
Abstract: The two-dose BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine has demonstrated high efficacy against COVID-19 disease in clinical trials of children and young people (CYP). Consequently, we investigated the uptake, safety, effectiveness and waning of the protective effect of the BNT162b2 against symptomatic COVID-19 in CYP aged 12-17 years in Scotland.The analysis of the vaccine uptake was based on information from the Turas Vaccination Management Tool, inclusive of Mar 1, 2022. Vaccine safety was evaluated using national data on hospital admissions and General Practice (GP) consultations, through a self-controlled case series (SCCS) design, investigating 17 health outcomes of interest. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic COVID-19 disease for Delta and Omicron variants was estimated using a test-negative design (TND) and S-gene status in a prospective cohort study using the Scotland-wide Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) surveillance platform. The waning of the VE following each dose of BNT162b2 was assessed using a matching process followed by conditional logistic regression.Between Aug 6, 2021 and Mar 1, 2022, 75.9% of the 112,609 CYP aged 16-17 years received the first and 49.0% the second COVID-19 vaccine dose. Among 237,681 CYP aged 12-15 years, the uptake was 64.5% and 37.2%, respectively. For 12-17-year-olds, BNT162b2 showed an excellent safety record, with no increase in hospital stays following vaccination for any of the 17 investigated health outcomes. In the 16-17-year-old group, VE against symptomatic COVID-19 during the Delta period was 64.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 59.2-68.5) at 2-5 weeks after the first dose and 95.6% (77.0-99.1) at 2-5 weeks after the second dose. The respective VEs against symptomatic COVID-19 in the Omicron period were 22.8% (95% CI -6.4-44.0) and 65.5% (95% CI 56.0-73.0). In children aged 12-15 years, VE against symptomatic COVID-19 during the Delta period was 65.4% (95% CI 61.5-68.8) at 2-5 weeks after the first dose, with no observed cases at 2-5 weeks after the second dose. The corresponding VE against symptomatic COVID-19 during the Omicron period were 30.2% (95% CI 18.4-40.3) and 81.2% (95% CI 77.7-84.2). The waning of the protective effect against the symptomatic disease began after five weeks post-first and post-second dose.During the study period, uptake of BNT162b2 in Scotland has covered more than two-thirds of CYP aged 12-17 years with the first dose and about 40% with the second dose. We found no increased likelihood of admission to hospital with a range of health outcomes in the period after vaccination. Vaccination with both doses was associated with a substantial reduction in the risk of COVID-19 symptomatic disease during both the Delta and Omicron periods, but this protection began to wane after five weeks.UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council); Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund; Chief Scientist's Office of the Scottish Government; Health Data Research UK; National Core Studies - Data and Connectivity.
4 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated how protection against COVID-19 conferred by previous infection is modified by vaccination and found that the combination of natural infection and vaccination provides maximal protection against new infection with SARS-CoV-2: prior vaccination does not impair this protection.
Abstract: Background: -- The objective of this study was to investigate how protection against COVID-19 conferred by previous infection is modified by vaccination. Methods -- In a cohort of all 152655 individuals in Scotland alive at 90 days after a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 (confirmed by cycle threshold < 30, or two tests) followed till 22 September 2021, rate ratios for reinfection were estimated with calendar time or tests as timescale. Findings -- Rates of detected and hospitalised reinfection with COVID-19 while unvaccinated were respectively 6.8 (95% CI 6.4 to 7.2) and 0.18 (95% CI 0.12 to 0.25) per 1000 person-months. These rates were respectively 68% and 74% lower than in a matched cohort of individuals who had not previously tested positive. Efficacy of two doses of vaccine in those with previous infection was estimated as as 84% (95 percent CI 81% to 86%) against detected reinfection and 71% (95 percent CI 29% to 88%) against hospitalised or fatal reinfection. The rate of detected reinfection after two doses of vaccine was 1.35 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.78) times higher in those vaccinated before first infection than in those unvaccinated at first infection. Interpretation -- The combination of natural infection and vaccination provides maximal protection against new infection with SARS-CoV-2: prior vaccination does not impair this protection.
4 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors estimate occupation risk from COVID-19 among teachers and others working in schools using publicly available data on mortality in England and Wales, and find that secondary school teachers had slightly higher risks of dying with COVID19 compared with the average for all working-aged people.
Abstract: Objectives To estimate occupation risk from COVID-19 among teachers and others working in schools using publicly available data on mortality in England and Wales. Design Analysis of national death registration data from the Office for National Statistics. Setting England and Wales, 8 March–28 December 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants The total working age population in England and Wales plus those still working aged over 65 years. Primary and secondary outcomes Death with COVID-19 as a primary outcome and death from all causes as a secondary outcome. Results Across occupational groups, there was a strong correlation between COVID-19 mortality and both non-COVID-19 and all-cause mortality. The absolute mortality rates for deaths with COVID-19 were low among those working in schools (from 10 per 100 000 in female primary school teachers to 39 per 100 000 male secondary school teachers) relative to many other occupations (range: 9–50 per 100 000 in women; 10–143 per 100 000 in men). There was weak evidence that secondary school teachers had slightly higher risks of dying with COVID-19 compared with the average for all working-aged people, but stronger evidence of a higher risk compared with the average for all professionals; primary school teachers had a lower risk. All-cause mortality was also higher among all teachers compared with all professionals. Teaching and lunchtime assistants were not at higher risk of death from COVID-19 compared with all working-aged people. Conclusion There was weak evidence that COVID-19 mortality risk for secondary school teachers was above expectation, but in general school staff had COVID-19 mortality risks which were proportionate to their non-COVID-19 mortality risk.
3 citations
References
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TL;DR: The validity of the Swedish IPR is high for many but not all diagnoses, but for certain research areas the use of other health registers, such as the Swedish Cancer Register, may be more suitable.
Abstract: Background: The Swedish National Inpatient Register (IPR), also called the Hospital Discharge Register, is a principal source of data for numerous research projects. The IPR is part of the National Patient Register. The Swedish IPR was launched in 1964 (psychiatric diagnoses from 1973) but complete coverage did not begin until 1987. Currently, more than 99% of all somatic (including surgery) and psychiatric hospital discharges are registered in the IPR. A previous validation of the IPR by the National Board of Health and Welfare showed that 85-95% of all diagnoses in the IPR are valid. The current paper describes the history, structure, coverage and quality of the Swedish IPR. Methods and results: In January 2010, we searched the medical databases, Medline and HighWire, using the search algorithm “validat* (inpatient or hospital discharge) Sweden”. We also contacted 218 members of the Swedish Society of Epidemiology and an additional 201 medical researchers to identify papers that had validated the IPR. In total, 132 papers were reviewed. The positive predictive value (PPV) was found to differ between diagnoses in the IPR, but is generally 85-95%. Conclusions: In conclusion, the validity of the Swedish IPR is high for many but not all diagnoses. The long followup makes the register particularly suitable for large-scale population-based research, but for certain research areas the use of other health registers, such as the Swedish Cancer Register, may be more suitable.
3,871 citations
TL;DR: Policy makers need to be aware of the equivocal evidence when considering school closures for COVID-19, and that combinations of social distancing measures should be considered.
1,559 citations
TL;DR: Although the absolute risk of admission was low overall, patient facing healthcare workers and their household members had threefold and twofold increased risks of admission with covid-19.
Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of hospital admission for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) among patient facing and non-patient facing healthcare workers and their household members. Design Nationwide linkage cohort study. Setting Scotland, UK, 1 March to 6 June 2020. Participants Healthcare workers aged 18-65 years, their households, and other members of the general population. Main outcome measure Admission to hospital with covid-19. Results The cohort comprised 158 445 healthcare workers, most of them (90 733; 57.3%) being patient facing, and 229 905 household members. Of all hospital admissions for covid-19 in the working age population (18-65 year olds), 17.2% (360/2097) were in healthcare workers or their households. After adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, and comorbidity, the risk of admission due to covid-19 in non-patient facing healthcare workers and their households was similar to the risk in the general population (hazard ratio 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.52 to 1.26) and 0.86 (0.49 to 1.51), respectively). In models adjusting for the same covariates, however, patient facing healthcare workers, compared with non-patient facing healthcare workers, were at higher risk (hazard ratio 3.30, 2.13 to 5.13), as were household members of patient facing healthcare workers (1.79, 1.10 to 2.91). After sub-division of patient facing healthcare workers into those who worked in “front door,” intensive care, and non-intensive care aerosol generating settings and other, those in front door roles were at higher risk (hazard ratio 2.09, 1.49 to 2.94). For most patient facing healthcare workers and their households, the estimated absolute risk of hospital admission with covid-19 was less than 0.5%, but it was 1% and above in older men with comorbidity. Conclusions Healthcare workers and their households contributed a sixth of covid-19 cases admitted to hospital. Although the absolute risk of admission was low overall, patient facing healthcare workers and their household members had threefold and twofold increased risks of admission with covid-19.
259 citations
TL;DR: The results suggest that investigators consider including more than five controls per case when either phi or P, is less than about 0.15, and the effect of increasing the control-to-case ratio depended on phi and, to a lesser extent, on P0.
Abstract: Statistical power in matched case-control studies depends on both the correlation coefficient between cases and their matched controls (phi) and the prevalence of exposure among controls (P0). To examine the hypothesis that the value of increasing the control-to-case ratio beyond 5 varies with both phi and P0, the authors estimated statistical power for a hypothetical case-control study under different assumptions. The effect of increasing the control-to-case ratio depended on phi and, to a lesser extent, on P0. The results suggest that investigators consider including more than five controls per case when either phi is greater than about 0.2 or P, is less than about 0.15.
254 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the cumulative risk of fatal or critical care unit-treated COVID-19 in people with diabetes and compared it with that of people without diabetes, and investigate risk factors for and build a cross-validated predictive model of fatal and critical care units-treated COVID19 among people with Diabetes.
220 citations