River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles☆
TL;DR: In this article, the principles governing the application of the conceptual model technique to river flow forecasting are discussed and the necessity for a systematic approach to the development and testing of the model is explained and some preliminary ideas suggested.
About: This article is published in Journal of Hydrology.The article was published on 1970-04-01. It has received 19601 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Conceptual model & Flood forecasting.
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TL;DR: The generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology for model identification allowing for equifinality is described, and an example application to rainfall-runoff modelling is used to illustrate the methodology, including the updating of likelihood measures.
1,977 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, a set of difference measures are used to evaluate the operational performance of a wide spectrum of geophysical models, regardless of whether the model predictions are manifested as scalars, directions, or vectors.
Abstract: Procedures that may be used to evaluate the operational performance of a wide spectrum of geophysical models are introduced. Primarily using a complementary set of difference measures, both model accuracy and precision can be meaningfully estimated, regardless of whether the model predictions are manifested as scalars, directions, or vectors. It is additionally suggested that the reliability of the accuracy and precision measures can be determined from bootstrap estimates of confidence and significance. Recommended procedures are illustrated with a comparative evaluation of two models that estimate wind velocity over the South Atlantic Bight.
1,832 citations
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TL;DR: The capability of the shuffled complex evolution automatic procedure is compared with the interactive multilevel calibration multistage semiautomated method developed for calibration of the Sacramento soil moisture accounting streamflow forecasting model of the U.S. National Weather Service and suggests that the state of the art in automatic calibration now can be expounded.
Abstract: The usefulness of a hydrologic model depends on how well the model is calibrated. Therefore, the calibration procedure must be conducted carefully to maximize the reliability of the model. In general, manual procedures for calibration can be extremely time-consuming and frustrating, and this has been a major factor inhibiting the widespread use of the more sophisticated and complex hydrologic models. A global optimization algorithm entitled shuffled complex evolution recently was developed that has proved to be consistent, effective, and efficient in locating the globally optimal model parameters of a hydrologic model. In this paper, the capability of the shuffled complex evolution automatic procedure is compared with the interactive multilevel calibration multistage semiautomated method developed for calibration of the Sacramento soil moisture accounting streamflow forecasting model of the U.S. National Weather Service. The results suggest that the state of the art in automatic calibration now can be exp...
1,680 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was validated for flow, sediment, and nutrients in the watershed to evaluate alternative management scenarios and estimate their effects in controlling pollution.
Abstract: The State of Texas has initiated the development of a Total Maximum Daily Load program in the Bosque River Watershed, where point and nonpoint sources of pollution are a concern. Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was validated for flow, sediment, and nutrients in the watershed to evaluate alternative management scenarios and estimate their effects in controlling pollution. This paper discusses the calibration and validation at two locations, Hico and Valley Mills, along the North Bosque River. Calibration for flow was performed from 1960 through 1998. Sediment and nutrient calibration was done from 1993 through 1997 at Hico and from 1996 through 1997 at Valley Mills. Model validation was performed for 1998. Time series plots and statistical measures were used to verify model predictions. Predicted values generally matched well with the observed values during calibration and validation (R2≥ 0.6 and Nash-Suttcliffe Efficiency ≥ 0.5, in most instances) except for some underprediction of nitrogen during calibration at both locations and sediment and organic nutrients during validation at Valley Mills. This study showed that SWAT was able to predict flow, sediment, and nutrients successfully and can be used to study the effects of alternative management scenarios.
1,423 citations
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TL;DR: Despite the increasing use of regional climate model (RCM) simulations in hydrological climate-change impact studies, their application is challenging due to the risk of considerable biases as discussed by the authors, which makes it difficult to apply RMC simulations to the real world.
1,393 citations