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Journal ArticleDOI

Rule and utility based evidential reasoning approach for multiattribute decision analysis under uncertainties

16 May 2001-European Journal of Operational Research (Elsevier BV)-Vol. 131, Iss: 1, pp 31-61
TL;DR: A generalised and extended decision matrix is constructed and rule and utility based techniques are developed for transforming various types of information within the matrix for aggregating attributes via ER that are equivalent with regard to underlying utility and rational in terms of preserving the features of original assessments.
About: This article is published in European Journal of Operational Research.The article was published on 2001-05-16. It has received 710 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Evidential reasoning approach & Decision matrix.
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
01 May 2002
TL;DR: The fundamental features of the ER approach are investigated and new schemes for weight normalization and basic probability assignments are proposed to enhance the process of aggregating attributes with uncertainty.
Abstract: In multiple attribute decision analysis (MADA), one often needs to deal with both numerical data and qualitative information with uncertainty. It is essential to properly represent and use uncertain information to conduct rational decision analysis. Based on a multilevel evaluation framework, an evidential reasoning (ER) approach has been developed for supporting such decision analysis, the kernel of which is an ER algorithm developed on the basis of the framework and the evidence combination rule of the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory. The approach has been applied to engineering design selection, organizational self-assessment, safety and risk assessment, and supplier assessment. In this paper, the fundamental features of the ER approach are investigated. New schemes for weight normalization and basic probability assignments are proposed. The original ER approach is further developed to enhance the process of aggregating attributes with uncertainty. Utility intervals are proposed to describe the impact of ignorance on decision analysis. Several properties of the new ER approach are explored, which lay the theoretical foundation of the ER approach. A numerical example of a motorcycle evaluation problem is examined using the ER approach. Computation steps and analysis results are provided in order to demonstrate its implementation process.

841 citations


Cites background or methods from "Rule and utility based evidential r..."

  • ...[24] J. B. Yang and P. Sen, “A general multi-level evaluation process for hybrid MADM with uncertainty,” IEEE Trans....

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  • ...[27] J. B. Yang and D. L. Xu, “Knowledge-based executive car evaluation using the evidential reasoning approach,” inAdvances in Manufacturing Technology XII, Baines, Taleb-Bendiab, and Zhao, Eds....

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  • ...Dr. Yang was given the Science and Technology Award for Young Scientists and Engineers by the China Association for Science and Technology in 1988 and Research Fellowships by British Council and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation of Germany in the 1990s....

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  • ...[30] J. B. Yang, M. Deng, and D. L. Xu, “Nonlinear regression to estimate both weights and utilities via evidential reasoning for MADM,” inProc....

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  • ...[31] J. B. Yang and D. L. Xu, “On evidential reasoning algorithms for multiattribute decision analysis under uncertainty,”IEEE Trans....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: An extended TOPSIS method and an aggregation-based method respectively for multi-attribute group decision making (MAGDM) with probabilistic linguistic information, and apply them to a practical case concerning strategy initiatives.

807 citations


Cites background from "Rule and utility based evidential r..."

  • ...Moreover, Yang and Xu [36, 37] considered partial ignorance as well (in which the probabilistic information is interpreted as the degrees of belief) under the framework of evidential reasoning....

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  • ...This information can be interpreted as probabilistic distribution [7, 29, 40], importance [19], degree of belief [36, 37] and so on....

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  • ...Moreover, it is usually hard to obtain the complete information of probabilistic distribution [25, 36], as seen in Examples 1 and 2....

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  • ...Similarly, some other approaches, such as the evidential reasoning approach [36], can be used to demonstrate the necessity of considering the probabilistic information....

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Journal ArticleDOI
01 Mar 2006
TL;DR: A generic rule-base inference methodology using the evidential reasoning (RIMER) approach is proposed, capable of capturing vagueness, incompleteness, and nonlinear causal relationships, while traditional if-then rules can be represented as a special case.
Abstract: In this paper, a generic rule-base inference methodology using the evidential reasoning (RIMER) approach is proposed. Existing knowledge-base structures are first examined, and knowledge representation schemes under uncertainty are then briefly analyzed. Based on this analysis, a new knowledge representation scheme in a rule base is proposed using a belief structure. In this scheme, a rule base is designed with belief degrees embedded in all possible consequents of a rule. Such a rule base is capable of capturing vagueness, incompleteness, and nonlinear causal relationships, while traditional if-then rules can be represented as a special case. Other knowledge representation parameters such as the weights of both attributes and rules are also investigated in the scheme. In an established rule base, an input to an antecedent attribute is transformed into a belief distribution. Subsequently, inference in such a rule base is implemented using the evidential reasoning (ER) approach. The scheme is further extended to inference in hierarchical rule bases. A numerical study is provided to illustrate the potential applications of the proposed methodology.

606 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The ER rule completes and enhances [email protected]?s rule by identifying how to combine pieces of fully reliable evidence that are highly or completely conflicting through a new reliability perturbation analysis.

508 citations


Cites methods from "Rule and utility based evidential r..."

  • ...This research is also motivated to investigate the rationale and foundation of the ER approach, which was developed to support MCDA of a quantitative and qualitative nature under uncertainty by applying D–S theory [38,40,41,43], to generalise it for evidence combination in general....

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  • ...These attractive features have motivated the use of D–S theory in many areas like knowledge-based system [22,8], pattern recognition [6], information fusion [21,30,14], Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and risk analysis [38,40,2,41, 37,33,42]....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The ER approach will be used to aggregate multiple environmental factors, resulting in an aggregated distributed assessment for each alternative policy, and a new analytical ER algorithm will be investigated which provides a means for using the ER approach in decision situations where an explicit ER aggregation function is needed.

468 citations

References
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Book ChapterDOI
01 Jan 1985
TL;DR: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as mentioned in this paper is a systematic procedure for representing the elements of any problem hierarchically, which organizes the basic rationality by breaking down a problem into its smaller constituent parts and then guides decision makers through a series of pairwise comparison judgments to express the relative strength or intensity of impact of the elements in the hierarchy.
Abstract: This chapter provides an overview of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is a systematic procedure for representing the elements of any problem hierarchically. It organizes the basic rationality by breaking down a problem into its smaller constituent parts and then guides decision makers through a series of pair-wise comparison judgments to express the relative strength or intensity of impact of the elements in the hierarchy. These judgments are then translated to numbers. The AHP includes procedures and principles used to synthesize the many judgments to derive priorities among criteria and subsequently for alternative solutions. It is useful to note that the numbers thus obtained are ratio scale estimates and correspond to so-called hard numbers. Problem solving is a process of setting priorities in steps. One step decides on the most important elements of a problem, another on how best to repair, replace, test, and evaluate the elements, and another on how to implement the solution and measure performance.

16,547 citations

Book
01 Jan 1976
TL;DR: In this article, a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe his true feelings in order to make those critically important, vexing trade-offs between incommensurable objectives.
Abstract: Many of the complex problems faced by decision makers involve multiple conflicting objectives. This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe his true feelings in order to make those critically important, vexing trade-offs between incommensurable objectives. The theory is illustrated by many real concrete examples taken from a host of disciplinary settings. The standard approach in decision theory or decision analysis specifies a simplified single objective like monetary return to maximise. By generalising from the single objective case to the multiple objective case, this book considerably widens the range of applicability of decision analysis.

8,895 citations

Book
01 Mar 1981
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a classification of MADM methods by data type and propose a ranking method based on the degree of similarity of the MADM method to the original MADM algorithm.
Abstract: I. Introduction.- II. Multiple Attribute Decision Making - An Overview.- 2.1 Basics and Concepts.- 2.2 Classifications of MADM Methods.- 2.2.1 Classification by Information.- 2.2.2 Classification by Solution Aimed At.- 2.2.3 Classification by Data Type.- 2.3 Description of MADM Methods.- Method (1): DOMINANCE.- Method (2): MAXIMIN.- Method (3): MAXIMAX.- Method (4): CONJUNCTIVE METHOD.- Method (5): DISJUNCTIVE METHOD.- Method (6): LEXICOGRAPHIC METHOD.- Method (7): LEXICOGRAPHIC SEMIORDER METHOD.- Method (8): ELIMINATION BY ASPECTS (EBA).- Method (9): LINEAR ASSIGNMENT METHOD (LAM).- Method (10): SIMPLE ADDITIVE WEIGHTING METHOD (SAW).- Method (11): ELECTRE (Elimination et Choice Translating Reality).- Method (12): TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution).- Method (13): WEIGHTED PRODUCT METHOD.- Method (14): DISTANCE FROM TARGET METHOD.- III. Fuzzy Sets and their Operations.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Basics of Fuzzy Sets.- 3.2.1 Definition of a Fuzzy Set.- 3.2.2 Basic Concepts of Fuzzy Sets.- 3.2.2.1 Complement of a Fuzzy Set.- 3.2.2.2 Support of a Fuzzy Set.- 3.2.2.3 ?-cut of a Fuzzy Set.- 3.2.2.4 Convexity of a Fuzzy Set.- 3.2.2.5 Normality of a Fuzzy Set.- 3.2.2.6 Cardinality of a Fuzzy Set.- 3.2.2.7 The mth Power of a Fuzzy Set.- 3.3 Set-Theoretic Operations with Fuzzy Sets.- 3.3.1 No Compensation Operators.- 3.3.1.1 The Min Operator.- 3.3.2 Compensation-Min Operators.- 3.3.2.1 Algebraic Product.- 3.3.2.2 Bounded Product.- 3.3.2.3 Hamacher's Min Operator.- 3.3.2.4 Yager's Min Operator.- 3.3.2.5 Dubois and Prade's Min Operator.- 3.3.3 Full Compensation Operators.- 3.3.3.1 The Max Operator.- 3.3.4 Compensation-Max Operators.- 3.3.4.1 Algebraic Sum.- 3.3.4.2 Bounded Sum.- 3.3.4.3 Hamacher's Max Operator.- 3.3.4.4 Yager's Max Operator.- 3.3.4.5 Dubois and Prade's Max Operator.- 3.3.5 General Compensation Operators.- 3.3.5.1 Zimmermann and Zysno's ? Operator.- 3.3.6 Selecting Appropriate Operators.- 3.4 The Extension Principle and Fuzzy Arithmetics.- 3.4.1 The Extension Principle.- 3.4.2 Fuzzy Arithmetics.- 3.4.2.1 Fuzzy Number.- 3.4.2.2 Addition of Fuzzy Numbers.- 3.4.2.3 Subtraction of Fuzzy Numbers.- 3.4.2.4 Multiplication of Fuzzy Numbers.- 3.4.2.5 Division of Fuzzy Numbers.- 3.4.2.6 Fuzzy Max and Fuzzy Min.- 3.4.3 Special Fuzzy Numbers.- 3.4.3.1 L-R Fuzzy Number.- 3.4.3.2 Triangular (or Trapezoidal) Fuzzy Number.- 3.4.3.3 Proof of Formulas.- 3.4.3.3.1 The Image of Fuzzy Number N.- 3.4.3.3.2 The Inverse of Fuzzy Number N.- 3.4.3.3.3 Addition and Subtraction.- 3.4.3.3.4 Multiplication and Division.- 3.5 Conclusions.- IV. Fuzzy Ranking Methods.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 Ranking Using Degree of Optimality.- 4.2.1 Baas and Kwakernaak's Approach.- 4.2.2 Watson et al.'s Approach.- 4.2.3 Baldwin and Guild's Approach.- 4.3 Ranking Using Hamming Distance.- 4.3.1 Yager's Approach.- 4.3.2 Kerre's Approach.- 4.3.3 Nakamura's Approach.- 4.3.4 Kolodziejczyk's Approach.- 4.4 Ranking Using ?-Cuts.- 4.4.1 Adamo's Approach.- 4.4.2 Buckley and Chanas' Approach.- 4.4.3 Mabuchi's Approach.- 4.5 Ranking Using Comparison Function.- 4.5.1 Dubois and Prade's Approach.- 4.5.2 Tsukamoto et al.'s Approach.- 4.5.3 Delgado et al.'s Approach.- 4.6 Ranking Using Fuzzy Mean and Spread.- 4.6.1 Lee and Li's Approach.- 4.7 Ranking Using Proportion to The Ideal.- 4.7.1 McCahone's Approach.- 4.8 Ranking Using Left and Right Scores.- 4.8.1 Jain's Approach.- 4.8.2 Chen's Approach.- 4.8.3 Chen and Hwang's Approach.- 4.9 Ranking with Centroid Index.- 4.9.1 Yager's Centroid Index.- 4.9.2 Murakami et al.'s Approach.- 4.10 Ranking Using Area Measurement.- 4.10.1 Yager's Approach.- 4.11 Linguistic Ranking Methods.- 4.11.1 Efstathiou and Tong's Approach.- 4.11.2 Tong and Bonissone's Approach.- V. Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making Methods.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 Fuzzy Simple Additive Weighting Methods.- 5.2.1 Baas and Kwakernaak's Approach.- 5.2.2 Kwakernaak's Approach.- 5.2.3 Dubois and Prade's Approach.- 5.2.4 Cheng and McInnis's Approach.- 5.2.5 Bonissone's Approach.- 5.3 Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) Methods.- 5.3.1 Saaty's AHP Approach.- 5.3.2 Laarhoven and Pedrycz's Approach.- 5.3.3 Buckley's Approach.- 5.4 Fuzzy Conjunctive/Disjunctive Method.- 5.4.1 Dubois, Prade, and Testemale's Approach.- 5.5 Heuristic MAUF Approach.- 5.6 Negi's Approach.- 5.7 Fuzzy Outranking Methods.- 5.7.1 Roy's Approach.- 5.7.2 Siskos et al.'s Approach.- 5.7.3 Brans et al.'s Approach.- 5.7.4 Takeda's Approach.- 5.8 Maximin Methods.- 5.8.1 Gellman and Zadeh's Approach.- 5.8.2 Yager's Approach.- 5.9 A New Approach to Fuzzy MADM Problems.- 5.9.1 Converting Linguistic Terms to Fuzzy Numbers.- 5.9.2 Converting Fuzzy Numbers to Crisp Scores.- 5.9.3 The Algorithm.- VI. Concluding Remarks.- 6.1 MADM Problems and Fuzzy Sets.- 6.2 On Existing MADM Solution Methods.- 6.2.1 Classical Methods for MADM Problems.- 6.2.2 Fuzzy Methods for MADM Problems.- 6.2.2.1 Fuzzy Ranking Methods.- 6.2.2.2 Fuzzy MADM Methods.- 6.3 Critiques of the Existing Fuzzy Methods.- 6.3.1 Size of Problem.- 6.3.2 Fuzzy vs. Crisp Data.- 6.4 A New Approach to Fuzzy MADM Problem Solving.- 6.4.1 Semantic Modeling of Linguistic Terms.- 6.4.2 Fuzzy Scoring System.- 6.4.3 The Solution.- 6.4.4 The Advantages of the New Approach.- 6.5 Other Multiple Criteria Decision Making Methods.- 6.5.1 Multiple Objective Decision Making Methods.- 6.5.2 Methods of Group Decision Making under Multiple Criteria.- 6.5.2.1 Social Choice Theory.- 6.5.2.2 Experts Judgement/Group Participation.- 6.5.2.3 Game Theory.- 6.6 On Future Studies.- 6.6.1 Semantics of Linguistic Terms.- 6.6.2 Fuzzy Ranking Methods.- 6.6.3 Fuzzy MADM Methods.- 6.6.4 MADM Expert Decision Support Systems.- VII. Bibliography.

8,629 citations

BookDOI
01 Jan 1981

6,268 citations

Book
01 Aug 1991
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a model-based approach to solving linear programming problems, which is based on the Gauss-Jordan method for solving systems of linear equations, and the Branch-and-Bound method for solving mixed integer programming problems.
Abstract: 1. INTRODUCTION TO MODEL BUILDING. An Introduction to Modeling. The Seven-Step Model-Building Process. Examples. 2. BASIC LINEAR ALGEBRA. Matrices and Vectors. Matrices and Systems of Linear Equations. The Gauss-Jordan Method for Solving Systems of Linear Equations. Linear Independence and Linear Dependence. The Inverse of a Matrix. Determinants. 3. INTRODUCTION TO LINEAR PROGRAMMING. What is a Linear Programming Problem? The Graphical Solution of Two-Variable Linear Programming Problems. Special Cases. A Diet Problem. A Work-Scheduling Problem. A Capital Budgeting Problem. Short-term Financial Planning. Blending Problems. Production Process Models. Using Linear Programming to Solve Multiperiod Decision Problems: An Inventory Model. Multiperiod Financial Models. Multiperiod Work Scheduling. 4. THE SIMPLEX ALGORITHM AND GOAL PROGRAMMING. How to Convert an LP to Standard Form. Preview of the Simplex Algorithm. The Simplex Algorithm. Using the Simplex Algorithm to Solve Minimization Problems. Alternative Optimal Solutions. Unbounded LPs. The LINDO Computer Package. Matrix Generators, LINGO, and Scaling of LPs. Degeneracy and the Convergence of the Simplex Algorithm. The Big M Method. The Two-Phase Simplex Method. Unrestricted-in-Sign Variables. Karmarkar"s Method for Solving LPs. Multiattribute Decision-Making in the Absence of Uncertainty: Goal Programming. Solving LPs with Spreadsheets. 5. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: AN APPLIED APPROACH. A Graphical Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis. The Computer and Sensitivity Analysis. Managerial Use of Shadow Prices. What Happens to the Optimal z-value if the Current Basis is No Longer Optimal? 6. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AND DUALITY. A Graphical Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis. Some Important Formulas. Sensitivity Analysis. Sensitivity Analysis When More Than One Parameter is Changed: The 100% Rule. Finding the Dual of an LP. Economic Interpretation of the Dual Problem. The Dual Theorem and Its Consequences. Shadow Prices. Duality and Sensitivity Analysis. 7. TRANSPORTATION, ASSIGNMENT, AND TRANSSHIPMENT PROBLEMS. Formulating Transportation Problems. Finding Basic Feasible Solutions for Transportation Problems. The Transportation Simplex Method. Sensitivity Analysis for Transportation Problems. Assignment Problems. Transshipment Problems. 8. NETWORK MODELS. Basic Definitions. Shortest Path Problems. Maximum Flow Problems. CPM and PERT. Minimum Cost Network Flow Problems. Minimum Spanning Tree Problems. The Network Simplex Method. 9. INTEGER PROGRAMMING. Introduction to Integer Programming. Formulation Integer Programming Problems. The Branch-and-Bound Method for Solving Pure Integer Programming Problems. The Branch-and-Bound Method for Solving Mixed Integer Programming Problems. Solving Knapsack Problems by the Branch-and-Bound Method. Solving Combinatorial Optimization Problems by the Branch-and-Bound Method. Implicit Enumeration. The Cutting Plane Algorithm. 10. ADVANCED TOPICS IN LINEAR PROGRAMMING. The Revised Simplex Algorithm. The Product Form of the Inverse. Using Column Generation to Solve Large-Scale LPs. The Dantzig-Wolfe Decomposition Algorithm. The Simplex Methods for Upper-Bounded Variables. Karmarkar"s Method for Solving LPs. 11. NONLINEAR PROGRAMMING. Review of Differential Calculus. Introductory Concepts. Convex and Concave Functions. Solving NLPs with One Variable. Golden Section Search. Unconstrained Maximization and Minimization with Several Variables. The Method of Steepest Ascent. Lagrange Multiples. The Kuhn-Tucker Conditions. Quadratic Programming. Separable Programming. The Method of Feasible Directions. Pareto Optimality and Tradeoff Curves. 12. REVIEW OF CALCULUS AND PROBABILITY. Review of Integral Calculus. Differentiation of Integrals. Basic Rules of Probability. Bayes" Rule. Random Variables. Mean Variance and Covariance. The Normal Distribution. Z-Transforms. Review Problems. 13. DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY. Decision Criteria. Utility Theory. Flaws in Expected Utility Maximization: Prospect Theory and Framing Effects. Decision Trees. Bayes" Rule and Decision Trees. Decision Making with Multiple Objectives. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. Review Problems. 14. GAME THEORY. Two-Person Zero-Sum and Constant-Sum Games: Saddle Points. Two-Person Zero-Sum Games: Randomized Strategies, Domination, and Graphical Solution. Linear Programming and Zero-Sum Games. Two-Person Nonconstant-Sum Games. Introduction to n-Person Game Theory. The Core of an n-Person Game. The Shapley Value. 15. DETERMINISTIC EOQ INVENTORY MODELS. Introduction to Basic Inventory Models. The Basic Economic Order Quantity Model. Computing the Optimal Order Quantity When Quantity Discounts Are Allowed. The Continuous Rate EOQ Model. The EOQ Model with Back Orders Allowed. Multiple Product Economic Order Quantity Models. Review Problems. 16. PROBABILISTIC INVENTORY MODELS. Single Period Decision Models. The Concept of Marginal Analysis. The News Vendor Problem: Discrete Demand. The News Vendor Problem: Continuous Demand. Other One-Period Models. The EOQ with Uncertain Demand: the (r, q) and (s,S models). The EOQ with Uncertain Demand: the Service Level Approach to Determining Safety Stock Level. Periodic Review Policy. The ABC Inventory Classification System. Exchange Curves. Review Problems. 17. MARKOV CHAINS. What is a Stochastic Process. What is a Markov Chain? N-Step Transition Probabilities. Classification of States in a Markov Chain. Steady-State Probabilities and Mean First Passage Times. Absorbing Chains. Work-Force Planning Models. 18.DETERMINISTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING. Two Puzzles. A Network Problem. An Inventory Problem. Resource Allocation Problems. Equipment Replacement Problems. Formulating Dynamic Programming Recursions. The Wagner-Whitin Algorithm and the Silver-Meal Heuristic. Forward Recursions. Using Spreadsheets to Solve Dynamic Programming Problems. Review Problems. 19. PROBABILISTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING. When Current Stage Costs are Uncertain but the Next Period"s State is Certain. A Probabilistic Inventory Model. How to Maximize the Probability of a Favorable Event Occurring. Further Examples of Probabilistic Dynamic Programming Formulations. Markov Decision Processes. Review Problems. 20. QUEUING THEORY. Some Queuing Terminology. Modeling Arrival and Service Processes. Birth-Death Processes. M/M/1/GD/o/o Queuing System and the Queuing Formula L=o W, The M/M/1/GD/o Queuing System. The M/M/S/ GD/o/o Queuing System. The M/G/ o/GD/oo and GI/G/o/GD/o/oModels. The M/ G/1/GD/o/o Queuing System. Finite Source Models: The Machine Repair Model. Exponential Queues in Series and Opening Queuing Networks. How to Tell whether Inter-arrival Times and Service Times Are Exponential. The M/G/S/GD/S/o System (Blocked Customers Cleared). Closed Queuing Networks. An Approximation for the G/G/M Queuing System. Priority Queuing Models. Transient Behavior of Queuing Systems. Review Problems. 21.SIMULATION. Basic Terminology. An Example of a Discrete Event Simulation. Random Numbers and Monte Carlo Simulation. An Example of Monte Carlo Simulation. Simulations with Continuous Random Variables. An Example of a Stochastic Simulation. Statistical Analysis in Simulations. Simulation Languages. The Simulation Process. 22.SIMULATION WITH PROCESS MODEL. Simulating an M/M/1 Queuing System. Simulating an M/M/2 System. A Series System. Simulating Open Queuing Networks. Simulating Erlang Service Times. What Else Can Process Models Do? 23. SPREADSHEET SIMULATION WITH @RISK. Introduction to @RISK: The Newsperson Problem. Modeling Cash Flows From A New Product. Bidding Models. Reliability and Warranty Modeling. Risk General Function. Risk Cumulative Function. Risktrigen Function. Creating a Distribution Based on a Point Forecast. Forecasting Income of a Major Corporation. Using Data to Obtain Inputs For New Product Simulations. Playing Craps with @RISK. Project Management. Simulating the NBA Finals. 24. FORECASTING. Moving Average Forecasting Methods. Simple Exponential Smoothing. Holt"s Method: Exponential Smoothing with Trend. Winter"s Method: Exponential Smoothing with Seasonality. Ad Hoc Forecasting, Simple Linear Regression. Fitting Non-Linear Relationships. Multiple Regression. Answers to Selected Problems. Index.

1,790 citations