Simulations of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones

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Simulations of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones

Simulations of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones

25 May 2000-

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors simulated the impact of the strength of the midlatitude circulation trough without changing its phasing with the tropical cyclone and found that the peak intensity of the extratropical cyclone following the extarropical transition is strongly dependent on the phasing, which leads to different degrees of interaction with the mid-latitude baroclinic zone.

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Abstract: Abstract Whether the tropical cyclone remnants will become a significant extratropical cyclone during the reintensification stage of extratropical transition is a complex problem because of the uncertainty in the tropical cyclone, the midlatitude circulation, the subtropical anticyclone, and the nonlinear interactions among these systems. In a previous study, the authors simulated the impact of the strength of the midlatitude circulation trough without changing its phasing with the tropical cyclone. In this study, the impact of phasing is simulated by fixing the initial position and amplitude of the midlatitude trough and varying the initial position of the tropical cyclone. The peak intensity of the extratropical cyclone following the extratropical transition is strongly dependent on the phasing, which leads to different degrees of interaction with the midlatitude baroclinic zone. Many aspects of the simulated circulation, temperature, and precipitation fields appear quite realistic for the reintensifyin...

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Journal Article•DOI•

Rossby Wave Packets on the Midlatitude Waveguide—A Review

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Volkmar Wirth¹, Michael Riemer¹, Edmund K. M. Chang², Olivia Martius³•Institutions (3)

University of Mainz¹, State University of New York System², Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research³

01 Jul 2018-Monthly Weather Review

TL;DR: In this paper, a review of the literature on upper-tropospheric transient wave packets along the midlatitude jet stream is presented, with an emphasis on developments during the last 15 years.

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Abstract: Rossby wave packets (RWPs) are Rossby waves for which the amplitude has a local maximum and decays to smaller values at larger distances. This review focuses on upper-tropospheric transient RWPs along the midlatitude jet stream. Their central characteristic is the propagation in the zonal direction as well as the transfer of wave energy from one individual trough or ridge to its downstream neighbor, a process called “downstream development.” These RWPs sometimes act as long-range precursors to extreme weather and presumably have an influence on the predictability of midlatitude weather systems. The paper reviews research progress in this area with an emphasis on developments during the last 15 years. The current state of knowledge is summarized including a discussion of the RWP life cycle as well as Rossby waveguides. Recent progress in the dynamical understanding of RWPs has been based, in part, on the development of diagnostic methods. These methods include algorithms to identify and track RWPs ...

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137 citations

Journal Article•DOI•

100 Years of Progress in Tropical Cyclone Research

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Kerry Emanuel¹•Institutions (1)

Massachusetts Institute of Technology¹

01 Jan 2018-Meteorological Monographs

TL;DR: A century ago, meteorologists regarded tropical cyclones as shallow vortices, extending upward only a few kilometers into the troposphere, and nothing was known about their physics save for the physics as discussed by the authors.

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Abstract: A century ago, meteorologists regarded tropical cyclones as shallow vortices, extending upward only a few kilometers into the troposphere, and nothing was known about their physics save tha...

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132 citations

Journal Article•DOI•

The impact of extratropical transition on the downstream flow: An idealized modelling study with a straight jet

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Michael Riemer¹, Sarah C. Jones¹, Christopher A. Davis²•Institutions (2)

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology¹, National Center for Atmospheric Research²

01 Jan 2008-Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

TL;DR: In this paper, the impact of a tropical cyclone undergoing extratropical transition (ET) with the midlatitude synoptic-scale flow is investigated using full-physics numerical experiments with idealized initial conditions.

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Abstract: The interaction of a tropical cyclone undergoing extratropical transition (ET) with the midlatitude synoptic-scale flow is investigated using full-physics numerical experiments with idealized initial conditions. The emphasis is on the impact on the midlatitude flow downstream of the ET event. The midlatitude flow is represented by a balanced straight jet stream. As the tropical cyclone approaches the jet, a ridge–trough couplet and a distinct jet streak form in the upper-level flow. A midlatitude cyclone develops rapidly downstream of the ET system and the further evolution is characterized by downstream baroclinic development. Based on Hovmoller diagrams, the upper-level development is interpreted as the excitation and subsequent dispersion of a Rossby wave train on the potential vorticity gradient associated with the jet. The characteristics of this wave train are sensitive to the structure of the jet and to moist processes in the midlatitudes. The tropical cyclone undergoing ET acts as a sustained forcing for the wave train and the structure of the ET system impacts the development most significantly one to two wavelengths downstream of ET. Piecewise inversion of potential vorticity, complemented by the partitioning of the flow into its rotational and divergent parts, is applied to assess the impact of the ET system quantitatively. Both the cyclonic circulation and the outflow of the tropical cyclone are important contributors to the formation and amplification of the ridge–trough couplet. The outflow anomaly reduces the eastward motion of the ridge–trough couplet significantly and thus promotes phase-locking between the tropical cyclone and the upper-level pattern. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

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118 citations

Journal Article•DOI•

A Climatological Analysis of the Extratropical Flow Response to Recurving Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

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Heather M. Archambault¹, Lance F. Bosart², Daniel Keyser², Jason M. Cordeira•Institutions (2)

Naval Postgraduate School¹, State University of New York System²

09 Jul 2013-Monthly Weather Review

TL;DR: A climatology of the extratropical flow response to recurving tropical cyclones (TCs) is constructed from 292 cases of TC recurvature during 1979-2009.

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Abstract: Although prior studies have established that the extratropical flow pattern often amplifies downstream of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs), the extratropical flow response to recurving TCs has not to the authors' knowledge been systematically examined from a climatological perspective. In this study, a climatology of the extratropical flow response to recurving western North Pacific TCs is constructed from 292 cases of TC recurvature during 1979–2009. The extratropical flow response to TC recurvature is evaluated based on a time-lagged composite time series of an index of the North Pacific meridional flow surrounding TC recurvature. Similar time series are constructed for recurving TCs stratified by characteristics of the large-scale flow pattern, the TC, and the phasing between the TC and the extratropical flow to assess factors influencing the extratropical flow response to TC recurvature. Results reveal that following TC recurvature, significantly amplified flow develops over the North Pacific...

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116 citations

Journal Article•DOI•

Predictability Associated with the Downstream Impacts of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Case Studies

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Doris Anwender¹, Patrick A. Harr², Sarah C. Jones¹•Institutions (2)

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology¹, Naval Postgraduate School²

01 Sep 2008-Monthly Weather Review

TL;DR: In this article, the predictability of five extratropical transition cases of different intensities in the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific is investigated using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system.

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Abstract: The extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones often has a negative impact on the predictability of the atmospheric situation both around the ET event and farther downstream. The predictability of five ET cases of different intensities in the North Atlantic and the western North Pacific is investigated using the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. The variability in the ensemble members is regarded as a measure of the predictability. Plumes of forecast uncertainty spread downstream of each ET event. Initialization times closer to the ET events yield higher predictability of the downstream flow independent of forecast lead time. Principal component analysis and fuzzy clustering is used to assess the variability in the ensemble members and to identify groupings of the members that contribute in a similar way to the variability patterns. Applying the method to the potential temperature on the dynamic tropopause reveals a characteristic variability pattern in all five cases that is closely rela...

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115 citations

Cites background from "Simulations of the Extratropical Tr..."

...On the one hand, ET is very sensitive to the phasing between the tropical cyclone (TC) and an approaching midlatitude trough (Klein et al. 2002; Ritchie and Elsberry 2007); on the other hand, the structure of the downstream flow can influence reintensification during ET (McTaggart-Cowan et al....
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...On the one hand, ET is very sensitive to the phasing between the tropical cyclone (TC) and an approaching midlatitude trough (Klein et al. 2002; Ritchie and Elsberry 2007); on the other hand, the structure of the downstream flow can influence reintensification during ET (McTaggart-Cowan et al.…...
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References

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Open Access

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Journal Article•DOI•

A parametric model of vertical eddy fluxes in the atmosphere

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Jean-François Louis¹•Institutions (1)

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts¹

01 Sep 1979-Boundary-Layer Meteorology

TL;DR: In this paper, a model for the representation of vertical eddy fluxes of heat, momentum and water vapour in a forecast model is presented, and two tests are presented, using the scheme in a one-dimensional model: the simulation of the diurnal cycle and the transformation of a polar air mass moving over the warm sea.

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Abstract: A scheme for the representation of the vertical eddy fluxes of heat, momentum and water vapour in a forecast model is presented. An important feature of the scheme is the dependence of the diffusion coefficients on the static stability of the atmosphere. Two tests are presented, using the scheme in a one-dimensional model: the simulation of the diurnal cycle, and the transformation of a polar air mass moving over the warm sea.

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2,357 citations

"Simulations of the Extratropical Tr..." refers background or methods in this paper

...Additional parameterizations include subgridscale mixing (Deardorff 1980), surface fluxes (Louis 1979), and a radiation scheme that includes both shortwave and longwave radiative transfer calculations considering both cumulus and stratiform cloud types (Harshvardhan et al. 1987)....
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...In these idealized simulations, the different evolutions must be due to differences in the interaction between the midlatitude trough and the tropical cyclone arising only from the relative positions in Fig....
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Book Chapter•DOI•

Convective parameterization for mesoscale models : The Kain-Fritsch Scheme

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John S. Kain¹, J. Michael Fritsch¹•Institutions (1)

Pennsylvania State University¹

01 Jan 1993

TL;DR: The Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme (CPS) is based on the same fundamental closure assumption as the Fritsch-Chappell (FC) (1980) scheme as mentioned in this paper.

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Abstract: The Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme (CPS) is based on the same fundamental closure assumption as the Fritsch-Chappell (FC) (1980) scheme—convective effects are assumed to remove convective available potential energy in a grid element within an advective time period. Its development was motivated by ongoing observational and numerical investigations of mesoscale convective systems that have revealed the potentially significant impact of certain physical processes that were not represented in the FC scheme. For example, in the FC scheme, detrainment from convective clouds to their environment occurs over a limited vertical depth near cloud top. Yet, it has become evident from diagnostic studies (e.g., Leary and Houze 1980; Gamache and Houze 1983) that midlevel detrainment of mass and moisture from deep convective clouds plays an important role in the development of some mesoscale convective systems.

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1,789 citations

"Simulations of the Extratropical Tr..." refers background in this paper

...The system is nonhydrostatic, has multiple nested grids, and includes a Kain–Fritsch (Kain and Fritsch 1993) representation of convection, and single-moment prediction of the mixing ratio of vapor, pristine ice, snow, rain, and cloud water for grid-scale saturation (Rutledge and Hobbs 1983)....
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...The final pressures can be clustered into three reintensification groups that are similar to those defined by Klein et al. (2000): non/weak (NW: SLP 1000 mb), moderate (M: 975 mb SLP 999 mb), and strong (S: SLP 975 mb) intensifiers....
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Journal Article•DOI•

Stratocumulus-capped mixed layers derived from a three-dimensional model

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James W. Deardorff¹•Institutions (1)

Oregon State University¹

01 Jun 1980-Boundary-Layer Meteorology

TL;DR: In this article, a three-dimensional numerical model was used to study turbulence and entrainment within mixed layers containing stratocumulus with or without parameterized cloud-top radiative cooling.

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Abstract: Results of a three-dimensional numerical model are analysed in a study of turbulence and entrainment within mixed layers containing stratocumulus with or without parameterized cloud-top radiative cooling. The model eliminates most of the assumptions invoked in theories of cloud-capped mixed layers, but suffers disadvantages which include poor resolution and large truncation errors in and above the capping inversion. For relatively thick mixed layers with relatively thick capping inversions, the cloud-top radiative cooling is found to be lodged mostly within the capping inversion when the cooling is confined locally to the upper 50 m or less of the cloud. It does not then contribute substantially towards increased buoyancy flux and turbulence within the well mixed layer just below. The optimal means of correlating the entrainment rate, or mixed-layer growth rate, for mixed layers of variable amounts of stratocumulus is found to be through functional dependence upon an overall jump Richardson number, utilizing as scaling velocity the standard deviation of vertical velocity existing at the top of the mixed layer (near the center of the capping inversion). This velocity is found to be a fraction of the generalized convective velocity for the mixed layer as a whole which is greater for cloud-capped mixed layers than for clear mixed layers.

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1,614 citations

"Simulations of the Extratropical Tr..." refers background or methods in this paper

...Additional parameterizations include subgridscale mixing (Deardorff 1980), surface fluxes (Louis 1979), and a radiation scheme that includes both shortwave and longwave radiative transfer calculations considering both cumulus and stratiform cloud types (Harshvardhan et al. 1987)....
[...]
...In these idealized simulations, the different evolutions must be due to differences in the interaction between the midlatitude trough and the tropical cyclone arising only from the relative positions in Fig....
[...]

Journal Article•DOI•

The Naval Research Laboratory’s Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)

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Richard M. Hodur¹•Institutions (1)

United States Naval Research Laboratory¹

01 Jul 1997-Monthly Weather Review

TL;DR: The three-dimensional Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory COAMPS consists of an atmospheric data assimilation system comprising data quality control, analysis, initialization, and nonhydrostatic forecast model components, as well as a hydrostatic ocean model as mentioned in this paper.

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Abstract: The three-dimensional Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory COAMPS consists of an atmospheric data assimilation system comprising data quality control, analysis, initialization, and nonhydrostatic forecast model components, as well as a hydrostatic ocean model The models can be integrated simultaneously so that the surface fluxes of heat, momentum, and moisture are exchanged across the air–water interface every time step Optionally, either the atmospheric or ocean model can be used as a stand-alone system The atmospheric component of COAMPS was used for operational support for the America3 team in the 1995 America’s Cup races Results of these forecasts indicated the necessity of data assimilation to reduce model spinup in the first 6 h of the forecast Accurate forecasts of the low-level wind in the coastal race area was accomplished by utilizing triply nested grids to attain the necessary high resolution to resolve

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946 citations

"Simulations of the Extratropical Tr..." refers methods in this paper

...Following Ritchie and Elsberry (2003), a series of simulations are performed using the Navy’s Coupled Ocean– Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) to investigate how different phasing between a midlatitude upper-level trough and the tropical cyclone impact the subsequent reintensification of the extratropical cyclone....
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...High-resolution idealized simulations of ET will be studied here using only the atmospheric portion of COAMPS (Hodur 1997)....
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...The COAMPS model was made available by the Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA. Simulations were performed on computers at the Naval Postgraduate School....
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...The advantage of simulations using such a modeling system is that the varying atmospheric conditions among cases can be controlled. a. Model description The COAMPS model employed in the study is described in detail by Hodur (1997)....
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Journal Article•DOI•

The Mesoscale and Microscale Structure and Organization of Clouds and Precipitation in Midlatitude Cyclones. VIII: A Model for the “Seeder-Feeder” Process in Warm-Frontal Rainbands

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Steven A. Rutledge¹, Peterv Hobbs¹•Institutions (1)

University of Washington¹

01 May 1983-Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present results from a parameterized numerical model of the growth processes that can lead to the enhancement of precipitation in a "seeder-feeder" type situation.

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Abstract: Previous field studies have indicated that warm-frontal rainbands form when ice particles from a “seeder” cloud grow as they fall through a lower-level “feeder” cloud. In this paper we present results from a parameterized numerical model of the growth processes that can lead to the enhancement of precipitation in a “seeder-feeder” type situation. The model is applied to two types of warm-frontal rainbands. In the first (Type 1 situation) the vertical air motions are typical of those associated with slow, widespread lifting in the vicinity of warm fronts. In the second (Type 2 situation) the vertical air motions are stronger, and more characteristic of the mesoscale. The model simulations show that in the Type 1 situations the growth of the “seed” ice crystals within the feeder zone is due to vapor deposition. The feeder zone in this case is slightly sub-saturated with respect to water due to the presence of the seed crystals. In regions where the feeder zone is not “seeded” from aloft, snow cryst...

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727 citations

"Simulations of the Extratropical Tr..." refers background in this paper

...The system is nonhydrostatic, has multiple nested grids, and includes a Kain–Fritsch (Kain and Fritsch 1993) representation of convection, and single-moment prediction of the mixing ratio of vapor, pristine ice, snow, rain, and cloud water for grid-scale saturation (Rutledge and Hobbs 1983)....
[...]
...In these idealized simulations, the different evolutions must be due to differences in the interaction between the midlatitude trough and the tropical cyclone arising only from the relative positions in Fig....
[...]