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Journal ArticleDOI

Spatial reconstruction of summer temperatures in Central Europe for the last 500 years using annually resolved proxy records: problems and opportunities

Rob Wilson1, David Frank, John Topham, Kurt Nicolussi, Jan Esper1 
01 Nov 2005-Boreas (Blackwell Publishing Ltd)-Vol. 34, Iss: 4, pp 490-497
TL;DR: In this paper, a network of tree-ring chronologies which have been processed in a consistent way would allow the robust reconstruction of spatial summer temperature variability for high elevations in Central Europe.
Abstract: Most palaeoclimate studies in Central Europe, utilizing annually resolved proxies such as tree-ring and documentary sources to reconstruct past temperatures, have focused mainly upon single sites or regional studies. The combined information of published summer temperature reconstructions from the Alpine region show a generally coherent picture of cool conditions for the periods c. 1450–1475, 1575–1610, 1660–1710, 1800–1850 and 1875–1925. These reconstructed cool periods can be partly explained by external forcing (e.g. low solar activity and volcanic events). However, these reconstructions, in their present form, cannot be used to comparatively assess spatial summer temperature variability through the region due to methodological differences in their development and the fact that many of them were not originally developed to emphasize spatial patterns. We propose that a network of tree-ring chronologies which have been processed in a consistent way would allow the robust reconstruction of spatial summer temperature variability for high elevations in Central Europe. Unfortunately, most living tree-ring chronologies only go back into the 18th century — so restricting the length of reconstruction. As a possible solution, we introduce a historical database of ring-width series, measured from string instruments, that could be used to extend high elevation spruce chronologies in Central Europe back for at least 500 years.

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Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a reconstruction of the European Alps for the a.d. 755-2004 period is presented, based on 180 recent and historic larch [Larix decidua mill] density series.
Abstract: Annually resolved summer temperatures for the European Alps are described. The reconstruction covers the a.d. 755–2004 period and is based on 180 recent and historic larch [Larix decidua Mill.] density series. The regional curve standardization method was applied to preserve interannual to multicentennial variations in this high-elevation proxy dataset. Instrumental measurements from high- (low-) elevation grid boxes back to 1818 (1760) reveal strongest growth response to current-year June–September mean temperatures. The reconstruction correlates at 0.7 with high-elevation temperatures back to 1818, with a greater signal in the higher-frequency domain (r = 0.8). Low-elevation instrumental data back to 1760 agree with the reconstruction’s interannual variation, although a decoupling between (warmer) instrumental and (cooler) proxy data before ∼1840 is noted. This offset is larger than during any period of overlap with more recent high-elevation instrumental data, even though the proxy time series...

398 citations


Cites background from "Spatial reconstruction of summer te..."

  • ...…Chuine et al. 2004; Glaser 2001; Le Roy Ladurie 2005; Menzel 2005; Pfister 1999), tree-ring data (Frank and Esper 2005b; Frank et al. 2005; Wilson and Topham 2004; Wilson et al. 2005), and multiproxy compilations (Casty et al. 2005c; Guiot et al. 2005; Luterbacher et al. 2004; Xoplaki et al. 2005)....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a network of 124 larch and spruce sites across the European Alpine arc were selected based on their correlation with early (1864−1933) instrumental temperatures to assess their ability of tracking recent (1934−2003) temperature variations.
Abstract: Evidence for reduced sensitivity of tree growth to temperature has been reported from multiple forests along the high northern latitudes. This alleged circumpolar phenomenon described the apparent inability of temperature-sensitive tree-ring width and density chronologies to parallel increasing instrumental temperature measurements since the mid-20th century. In addition to such low-frequency trend offset, the inability of formerly temperature-sensitive tree growth to reflect high-frequency temperature signals in a warming world is indicated at some boreal sites, mainly in Alaska, the Yukon and Siberia. Here, we refer to both of these findings as the ‘divergence problem’ (DP), with their causes and scale being debated. If DP is widespread and the result of climatic forcing, the overall reliability of tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions should be questioned. Testing for DP benefits from well-replicated tree-ring and instrumental data spanning from the 19th to the 21st century. Here, we present a network of 124 larch and spruce sites across the European Alpine arc. Tree-ring width chronologies from 40 larch and 24 spruce sites were selected based on their correlation with early (1864‐1933) instrumental temperatures to assess their ability of tracking recent (1934‐2003) temperature variations. After the tree-ring series of both species were detrended in a manner that allows low-frequency variations to be preserved and scaled against summer temperatures, no unusual late 20th century DP is found. Independent tree-ring width and density evidence for unprecedented late 20th century temperatures with respect to the past millennium further reinforces our results.

156 citations


Cites result from "Spatial reconstruction of summer te..."

  • ...Because of the overall lower temperature response of spruce, the remaining limitation of this species is a poorer estimation of temperature fluctuations, in line with previous results from Europe (Frank & Esper, 2005a; Wilson et al., 2005; Büntgen et al., 2006c) and the boreal forest (Lloyd & Bunn, 2007)....

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  • ...Here, we present a network of 124 larch and spruce sites across the European Alpine arc....

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  • ...Both conditions, as well as an unprecedented warming trend since the past 150 years (Auer et al., 2007), exist for the European Alps....

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  • ...We compiled 124 larch and spruce TRW site chronologies from the European Alps....

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  • ...…of the overall lower temperature response of spruce, the remaining limitation of this species is a poorer estimation of temperature fluctuations, in line with previous results from Europe (Frank & Esper, 2005a; Wilson et al., 2005; Büntgen et al., 2006c) and the boreal forest (Lloyd & Bunn, 2007)....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, a ring-width chronology of Picea abies (L.) Karst was developed to explore growth/climate responses in stands along an altitudinal gradient ranging from 839 to 1468m a.s.
Abstract: Ring-width chronologies of Picea abies (L.) Karst. from ten sites in the Tatra Mountains, Poland, were developed to explore growth/climate responses in stands along an altitudinal gradient ranging from 839 to 1468 m a.s.l. There were positive relationships between current-year radial growth and mean monthly temperatures in March, April, June and July, but with increasing elevation, the strength of this correlation declined for March–April and increased for June–July temperatures. The mean monthly temperature in October of the previous year positively influenced radial growth of trees at all sites. Lower mean temperatures in January negatively affected growth of trees at the high-elevation sites. Trees at the low-elevation sites responded positively to a warm early spring, whereas trees at the high-elevation sites showed positive growth responses to higher summer temperatures. Growth of trees at the high-elevation sites was better explained by the temperature regime than was growth at the lower-elevation sites. Therefore, it is likely that these sites may be particularly sensitive to potential effects of temperature change.

126 citations


Cites background or methods from "Spatial reconstruction of summer te..."

  • ...Dendroclimatic reconstruction of spring–summer precipitation and summer temperature using tree-ring data has been carried out for Bavarian Forest region and Central Europe (Wilson et al. 2005a,b)....

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  • ...For example, in mountainous regions in Europe, tree-ring growth at high-elevation sites was correlated with temperature, whereas growth at low-elevation sites was correlated with precipitation (Slåstad 1957; Dittmar and Elling 1999; Mäkinen et al. 2002b; Wilson et al. 2005a)....

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  • ...Several studies have suggested that if possible climate warming is not accompanied by increased precipitation, rising temperatures could have a detrimental effect on forest ecosystems in Central Europe, arising from increased evapotranspiration and water deficits (Mäkinen et al. 2002b)....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The southernmost glaciers in Europe are located on the Iberian, Apennine and Balkan Peninsulas in mid-latitudes between 41 � � N and 44 � N at altitudes ranging from 2000 to 3000 m a.s as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The southernmost glaciers in Europe are located on the Iberian, Apennine and Balkan Peninsulas in mid-latitudes between 41 � � N and 44 � N at altitudes ranging from 2000 to 3000 m a.s.l. All these glaciers are a legacy of the Little Ice Age (LIA). They survive in a relatively warm environment (mean annual temperature 0 � Ct o +1 � C) due to local topographic controls and high levels of accumulation as a result of avalanche and wind-blown snow. In the Pirin Mountains, Bulgaria, Snezhnika glacieret has been cored, providing an archive of recent climate change. Small glaciers such as this respond quickly to climatic extremes. Since the LIA maximum during the 19th century, all southern European glaciers have retreated, losing 30-100% of their volume. However, despite the trend towards warmer years since the late 1970s, some glaciers still survive, even after some of the hottest summers on record. Predicted future warming, especially in summer, and drier conditions in the Mediterranean basin may result in the disappearance of all glacier features at these latitudes in Europe within the next few decades.

121 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the influence of tree-ring standardization and calibration period on the divergence phenomenon was explored by employing both adjusted and non-adjusted temperature data to assess growth-climate agreement, and the results indicated that common methodological and data usage decisions alter 20th century growth and temperature trends in a way that can easily explain the post-1960 divergence.
Abstract: Estimates of past climate and future forest biomass dynamics are constrained by uncertainties in the relationships between growth and climatic variability and uncertainties in the instrumental data themselves. Of particular interest in this regard is the borealforest zone, where radial growth has historically been closely connected with temperature variability, but various lines of evidence have indicated a decoupling since about the 1960s. We here address this growth-vs.-temperature divergence by analyzing tree-ring width and density data from across Siberia, and comparing 20th century proxy trends with those derived from instrumental stations. We test the influence of approaches considered in the recent literature on the divergence phenomenon (DP), including effects of tree-ring standardization and calibration period, and explore instrumental uncertainties by employing both adjusted and nonadjusted temperature data to assess growth-climate agreement. Results indicate that common methodological and data usage decisions alter 20th century growth and temperature trends in a way that can easily explain the post-1960 DP. We show that (i) Siberian station temperature adjustments were up to 1.31C for decadal means before 1940, (ii) tree-ring detrending effects in the order of 0.6‐0.81C, and (iii) calibration uncertainties up to about 0.41C over the past 110 years. Despite these large uncertainties, instrumental and tree growth estimates for the entire 20th century warming interval match each other, to a degree previously not recognized, when care is taken to preserve long-term trends in the tree-ring data. We further show that careful examination of early temperature data and calibration of proxy timeseries over the full period of overlap with instrumental data are both necessary to properly estimate 20th century longterm changes and to avoid erroneous detection of post-1960 divergence.

105 citations


Cites background or methods from "Spatial reconstruction of summer te..."

  • ...These methods were chosen as they were either typically used (HUG, EXP) for detrending of high latitude TRW and MXD data (e.g., Schweingruber et al., 1979; Jacoby & D’Arrigo, 1989, 1995; Schweingruber & Briffa, 1995, 1996a; Briffa et al., 1998; Wilson et al., 2005; Helama et al., 2008), or represent techniques that preserve varying low frequency variability (RCS, SPL) in resulting tree-ring chronologies (e....

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  • ...…latitude TRW and MXD data (e.g., Schweingruber et al., 1979; Jacoby & D’Arrigo, 1989, 1995; Schweingruber & Briffa, 1995, 1996a; Briffa et al., 1998; Wilson et al., 2005; Helama et al., 2008), or represent techniques that preserve varying low frequency variability (RCS, SPL) in resulting tree-ring…...

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References
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The Scree Test for the Number Of Factors this paper was first proposed in 1966 and has been used extensively in the field of behavioral analysis since then, e.g., in this paper.
Abstract: (1966). The Scree Test For The Number Of Factors. Multivariate Behavioral Research: Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 245-276.

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the authors derived formulas for the correlation coefficient between the average of a finite number of time series and the population average, where the subsample signal strength (SSS) and expressed population signal (EPS) were derived.
Abstract: In a number of areas of applied climatology, time series are either averaged to enhance a common underlying signal or combined to produce area averages. How well, then, does the average of a finite number (N) of time series represent the population average, and how well will a subset of series represent the N-series average? We have answered these questions by deriving formulas for 1) the correlation coefficient between the average of N time series and the average of n such series (where n is an arbitrary subset of N) and 2) the correlation between the N-series average and the population. We refer to these mean correlations as the subsample signal strength (SSS) and the expressed population signal (EPS). They may be expressed in terms of the mean inter-series correlation coefficient r as SSS ≡ (Rn,N)2 ≈ n(1 + (N − 1)r)/ N(1 + (N − 1)r), EPS ≡ RN)2 ≈ Nr/1 + (N − 1)r.Similar formulas are given relating these mean correlations to the fractional common variance which arises as a parameter in a...

2,949 citations


"Spatial reconstruction of summer te..." refers background in this paper

  • ...The problem that arises with existing living chronologies in the Alpine region, however, is that the usable length (i.e. the period where the signal-to-noise ratio is high (Wigley et al. 1984)) of some of the series is relatively short....

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Journal ArticleDOI
07 Dec 2001-Science
TL;DR: A solar forcing mechanism therefore may underlie at least the Holocene segment of the North Atlantic's “1500-year” cycle, potentially providing an additional mechanism for amplifying the solar signals and transmitting them globally.
Abstract: Surface winds and surface ocean hydrography in the subpolar North Atlantic appear to have been influenced by variations in solar output through the entire Holocene. The evidence comes from a close correlation between inferred changes in production rates of the cosmogenic nuclides carbon-14 and beryllium-10 and centennial to millennial time scale changes in proxies of drift ice measured in deep-sea sediment cores. A solar forcing mechanism therefore may underlie at least the Holocene segment of the North Atlantic's "1500-year" cycle. The surface hydrographic changes may have affected production of North Atlantic Deep Water, potentially providing an additional mechanism for amplifying the solar signals and transmitting them globally.

2,938 citations


"Spatial reconstruction of summer te..." refers background in this paper

  • ...…reconstruction time series, coincides with a period of low solar irradiance (the Dalton minimum; Stuiver 1961; Bard et al. 2000; Beer et al. 2000; Bond et al. 2001; Robertson et al. 2001) and high volcanic activity (e.g. Tambora 1815; Newhall & Self 1982; Briffa et al. 1998; Robertson et al.…...

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  • ...For example, the 1810– 1825 period, which is consistently cool in all the reconstruction time series, coincides with a period of low solar irradiance (the Dalton minimum; Stuiver 1961; Bard et al. 2000; Beer et al. 2000; Bond et al. 2001; Robertson et al. 2001) and high volcanic activity (e....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: A composite estimate of the magnitude of past explosive eruptions, referred to as the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), is proposed as a semiquantitative compromise between poor data and the need in various disciplines to evaluate the record of past volcanism as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: A composite estimate of the magnitude of past explosive eruptions, referred to as the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), is proposed as a semiquantitative compromise between poor data and the need in various disciplines to evaluate the record of past volcanism. The VEI is assigned to more than 8000 historic and prehistoric eruptions. It is shown that the VEI can help detect incompleteness and reporting biases and can help in selecting subsets of the historical record suitable for each study. The VEI is a composite estimate of Walkers (1980) magnitude and/or intensity and/or destructiveness and/or (less frequently) dispersive power, violence, and energy release rate, depending on the data that are available.

1,670 citations


"Spatial reconstruction of summer te..." refers background in this paper

  • ...…reconstruction time series, coincides with a period of low solar irradiance (the Dalton minimum; Stuiver 1961; Bard et al. 2000; Beer et al. 2000; Bond et al. 2001; Robertson et al. 2001) and high volcanic activity (e.g. Tambora 1815; Newhall & Self 1982; Briffa et al. 1998; Robertson et al. 2001)....

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