Species' traits as predictors of range shifts under contemporary climate change: A review and meta-analysis.
TL;DR: The first comprehensive review of species' traits as predictors of range shifts is conducted, collecting results from 51 studies across multiple taxa encompassing over 11,000 species' responses for 54 assemblages of taxonomically related species occurring together in space.
Abstract: A growing body of literature seeks to explain variation in range shifts using species’ ecological and life-history traits, with expectations that shifts should be greater in species with greater dispersal ability, reproductive potential, and ecological generalization. Despite strong theoretical support for species’ traits as predictors of range shifts, empirical evidence from contemporary range shift studies remains limited in extent and consensus. We conducted the first comprehensive review of species’ traits as predictors of range shifts, collecting results from 51 studies across multiple taxa encompassing over 11,000 species’ responses for 54 assemblages of taxonomically related species occurring together in space. We used studies of assemblages that directly compared geographic distributions sampled in the 20th century prior to climate change with resurveys of distributions after contemporary climate change and then tested whether species traits accounted for heterogeneity in range shifts. We performed a formal meta-analysis on study-level effects of body size, fecundity, diet breadth, habitat breadth, and historic range limit as predictors of range shifts for a subset of 21 studies of 26 assemblages with sufficient data. Range shifts were consistent with predictions based on habitat breadth and historic range limit. However, body size, fecundity, and diet breadth showed no significant effect on range shifts across studies, and multiple studies reported significant relationships that contradicted predictions. Current understanding of species’ traits as predictors of range shifts is limited, and standardized study is needed for traits to be valid indicators of vulnerability in assessments of climate change impacts.
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TL;DR: It is shown that lowland bird species at the study site are expanding in range size as they shift their upper limits upslope and may benefit from climate change, and support projections that warming will likely drive widespread extirpations and extinctions of high-elevation taxa in the tropical Andes.
Abstract: Montane species worldwide are shifting upslope in response to recent temperature increases. These upslope shifts are predicted to lead to mountaintop extinctions of species that live only near mountain summits, but empirical examples of populations that have disappeared are sparse. We show that recent warming constitutes an “escalator to extinction” for birds on a remote Peruvian mountain—high-elevation species have declined in both range size and abundance, and several previously common mountaintop residents have disappeared from the local community. Our findings support projections that warming will likely drive widespread extirpations and extinctions of high-elevation taxa in the tropical Andes. Such climate change-driven mountaintop extirpations may be more likely in the tropics, where temperature seems to exert a stronger control on species’ range limits than in the temperate zone. In contrast, we show that lowland bird species at our study site are expanding in range size as they shift their upper limits upslope and may thus benefit from climate change.
244 citations
Cites background from "Species' traits as predictors of ra..."
...Functional traits associated with greater dispersal may explain why some species undergo large shifts at their leading range margins while others do not (18, 19)....
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United States Geological Survey1, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration2, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution3, National Marine Fisheries Service4, University of Washington5, United States Department of the Interior6, Gulf of Maine Research Institute7, Silver Spring Networks8, University of Maryland, College Park9, United States Forest Service10, Michigan State University11
TL;DR: It is found that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses.
234 citations
TL;DR: It is demonstrated that, over recent decades, increases in abundance were more pronounced than range shifts, suggesting an in-filling process which decreases in intensity with increasing elevation.
Abstract: Many studies report that mountain plant species are shifting upward in elevation. However, the majority of these reports focus on shifts of upper limits. Here, we expand the focus and simultaneously analyze changes of both range limits, optima, and abundances of 183 mountain plant species. We therefore resurveyed 1,576 vegetation plots first recorded before 1970 in the European Alps. We found that both range limits and optima shifted upward in elevation, but the most pronounced trend was a mean increase in species abundance. Despite huge species-specific variation, range dynamics showed a consistent trend along the elevational gradient: Both range limits and optima shifted upslope faster the lower they were situated historically, and species' abundance increased more for species from lower elevations. Traits affecting the species' dispersal and persistence capacity were not related to their range dynamics. Using indicator values to stratify species by their thermal and nutrient demands revealed that elevational ranges of thermophilic species tended to expand, while those of cold-adapted species tended to contract. Abundance increases were strongest for nutriphilous species. These results suggest that recent climate warming interacted with airborne nitrogen deposition in driving the observed dynamics. So far, the majority of species appear as "winners" of recent changes, yet "losers" are overrepresented among high-elevation, cold-adapted species with low nutrient demands. In the decades to come, high-alpine species may hence face the double pressure of climatic changes and novel, superior competitors that move up faster than they themselves can escape to even higher elevations.
229 citations
Cites background from "Species' traits as predictors of ra..."
...However, the only two available metaanalyses on the issue demonstrated that such relationships are often weak or completely lacking (14, 20)....
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...Possible reasons include variation in species-specific traits (14, 20), interference with other environmental drivers such as land use change (21) or airborne nitrogen deposition (22), buffering of species against climate warming in microrefugia (23), or cascading indirect effects of these drivers via biotic interactions (12)....
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...Hence, it seems that a trait-based explanation probably underestimates the complexity of elevational range shifts (20) as well as the stochasticity of key processes like seed dispersal (38)....
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TL;DR: This review shows that, apart from the stress response mediated by heat shock proteins, the physiological mechanisms of heat tolerance in insects remain poorly studied, and emphasizes the importance of incorporating physiological information for modelling species distributions and ecological interactions under global warming scenarios.
Abstract: Surviving changing climate conditions is particularly difficult for organisms such as insects that depend on environmental temperature to regulate their physiological functions. Insects are extremely threatened by global warming, since many do not have enough physiological tolerance even to survive continuous exposure to the current maximum temperatures experienced in their habitats. Here, we review literature on the physiological mechanisms that regulate responses to heat and provide heat tolerance in insects: (i) neuronal mechanisms to detect and respond to heat; (ii) metabolic responses to heat; (iii) thermoregulation; (iv) stress responses to tolerate heat; and (v) hormones that coordinate developmental and behavioural responses at warm temperatures. Our review shows that, apart from the stress response mediated by heat shock proteins, the physiological mechanisms of heat tolerance in insects remain poorly studied. Based on life-history theory, we discuss the costs of heat tolerance and the potential evolutionary mechanisms driving insect adaptations to high temperatures. Some insects may deal with ongoing global warming by the joint action of phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation. Plastic responses are limited and may not be by themselves enough to withstand ongoing warming trends. Although the evidence is still scarce and deserves further research in different insect taxa, genetic adaptation to high temperatures may result from rapid evolution. Finally, we emphasize the importance of incorporating physiological information for modelling species distributions and ecological interactions under global warming scenarios. This review identifies several open questions to improve our understanding of how insects respond physiologically to heat and the evolutionary and ecological consequences of those responses. Further lines of research are suggested at the species, order and class levels, with experimental and analytical approaches such as artificial selection, quantitative genetics and comparative analyses.
182 citations
Cites background from "Species' traits as predictors of ra..."
...Still, particularly for insects, it remains to be determined whether thermal tolerance is a better predictor of climate-driven range shifts than other life-history traits (Table 1;MacLean & Beissinger, 2017)....
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a survey of the work of the University of British Columbia's Department of Zoology and its colleagues in the field of marine and environmental sciences. But their focus is on the effects of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems.
Abstract: 1Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada 2Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada 3Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada 4School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle 5Department of Biology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
173 citations
Cites background from "Species' traits as predictors of ra..."
...Although previous syntheses have addressed variation in range shifts among species (Angert et al., 2011; MacLean & Beissinger, 2017; Sunday et al., 2015), variation in range shifts within species – how shifts differ between species’ warm (low elevation/latitude) and cool (high elevation/latitude)…...
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References
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas (excluding Antarctica) at a spatial resolution of 30 arc s (often referred to as 1-km spatial resolution).
Abstract: We developed interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas (excluding Antarctica) at a spatial resolution of 30 arc s (often referred to as 1-km spatial resolution). The climate elements considered were monthly precipitation and mean, minimum, and maximum temperature. Input data were gathered from a variety of sources and, where possible, were restricted to records from the 1950–2000 period. We used the thin-plate smoothing spline algorithm implemented in the ANUSPLIN package for interpolation, using latitude, longitude, and elevation as independent variables. We quantified uncertainty arising from the input data and the interpolation by mapping weather station density, elevation bias in the weather stations, and elevation variation within grid cells and through data partitioning and cross validation. Elevation bias tended to be negative (stations lower than expected) at high latitudes but positive in the tropics. Uncertainty is highest in mountainous and in poorly sampled areas. Data partitioning showed high uncertainty of the surfaces on isolated islands, e.g. in the Pacific. Aggregating the elevation and climate data to 10 arc min resolution showed an enormous variation within grid cells, illustrating the value of high-resolution surfaces. A comparison with an existing data set at 10 arc min resolution showed overall agreement, but with significant variation in some regions. A comparison with two high-resolution data sets for the United States also identified areas with large local differences, particularly in mountainous areas. Compared to previous global climatologies, ours has the following advantages: the data are at a higher spatial resolution (400 times greater or more); more weather station records were used; improved elevation data were used; and more information about spatial patterns of uncertainty in the data is available. Owing to the overall low density of available climate stations, our surfaces do not capture of all variation that may occur at a resolution of 1 km, particularly of precipitation in mountainous areas. In future work, such variation might be captured through knowledgebased methods and inclusion of additional co-variates, particularly layers obtained through remote sensing. Copyright 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.
17,977 citations
TL;DR: The metafor package provides functions for conducting meta-analyses in R and includes functions for fitting the meta-analytic fixed- and random-effects models and allows for the inclusion of moderators variables (study-level covariates) in these models.
Abstract: The metafor package provides functions for conducting meta-analyses in R. The package includes functions for fitting the meta-analytic fixed- and random-effects models and allows for the inclusion of moderators variables (study-level covariates) in these models. Meta-regression analyses with continuous and categorical moderators can be conducted in this way. Functions for the Mantel-Haenszel and Peto's one-step method for meta-analyses of 2 x 2 table data are also available. Finally, the package provides various plot functions (for example, for forest, funnel, and radial plots) and functions for assessing the model fit, for obtaining case diagnostics, and for tests of publication bias.
11,237 citations
"Species' traits as predictors of ra..." refers methods in this paper
...We analyzed effect sizes using the METAFOR package in R (Schmid, Stewart, Rothstein, Lajeunesse, & Gurevitch, 2013; Viechtbauer, 2010)....
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...We used RE models as opposed to fixed effects models, because the latter assume a single common effect size across studies and assume that any heterogeneity across studies is due to chance alone (Trikalinos, Salanti, Zintzaras, & Ioannidis, 2008; Viechtbauer, 2010)....
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TL;DR: A diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends is defined and generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
9,761 citations
"Species' traits as predictors of ra..." refers background in this paper
...For example, long-distant migrants often show high fidelity to breeding and overwintering sites (Bensch, 1999; Laube et al., 2013) and may be more likely to exhibit phenological shifts in response to climate change (Estrada et al., 2016; Parmesan & Yohe, 2003)....
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...Range shifts observed under recent climate change appear highly idiosyncratic (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003; 4094 | © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/gcb Glob Change Biol....
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...Numerous studies have documented species responding to changes in their environment through phenotypic plasticity, particularly shifts in phenology (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003)....
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University of Leeds1, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds2, University of Cambridge3, Macquarie University4, Durham University5, University of the Witwatersrand6, Conservation International7, Stellenbosch University8, World Conservation Monitoring Centre9, National Autonomous University of Mexico10, University of Kansas11, James Cook University12
TL;DR: Estimates of extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
Abstract: Climate change over the past approximately 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction ( approximately 18%) than mid-range ( approximately 24%) and maximum-change ( approximately 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
7,089 citations
"Species' traits as predictors of ra..." refers background in this paper
...…evidence-based tools for conservation and management that could increase the accuracy of extinction risk projections (La Sorte & Jetz, 2010; Thomas et al., 2004), vulnerability assessments (Foden & Young, 2016; Foden et al., 2013), and predictions of novel community assemblages (Stralberg…...
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...Therefore, traits could provide valuable evidence-based tools for conservation and management that could increase the accuracy of extinction risk projections (La Sorte & Jetz, 2010; Thomas et al., 2004), vulnerability assessments (Foden & Young, 2016; Foden et al....
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Book•
18 Aug 2000TL;DR: This paper presents a meta-analysis procedure called “Meta-Analysis Interpretation for Meta-Analysis Selecting, Computing and Coding the Effect Size Statistic and its applications to Data Management Analysis Issues and Strategies.
Abstract: Introduction Problem Specification and Study Retrieval Selecting, Computing and Coding the Effect Size Statistic Developing a Coding Scheme and Coding Study Reports Data Management Analysis Issues and Strategies Computational Techniques for Meta-Analysis Data Interpreting and Using Meta-Analysis Results
6,930 citations
"Species' traits as predictors of ra..." refers methods in this paper
...For categorical trait variables, we calculated the standardized mean difference in range shifts between two groups (e.g., omnivores vs. specialists) using Cohen’s D (Lipsey & Wilson, 2001; Rosenberg, Rothstein, & Gurevitch, 2013)....
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