Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in a warming world
TL;DR: The authors showed that the rate of sea-level rise has been growing over at least the past two decades at a rate of 0.28 to 0.56 mm/yr −1.
Abstract: (equivalent to 0.28 to 0.56 mm yr −1 sea-level rise), with the rate growing over at least the past two decades 1–4 . These observations intensify concerns about the ice sheet’s stability that were first raised more than four decades ago 5
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01 Jan 2013
TL;DR: In this article, the causes of observed changes assessed in Chapters 2 to 5 and uses understanding of physical processes, climate models and statistical approaches are used to assess the extent to which atmospheric and oceanic changes influence ecosystems, infrastructure, human health and activities in economic sectors.
Abstract: This chapter assesses the causes of observed changes assessed in Chapters 2 to 5 and uses understanding of physical processes, climate models and statistical approaches. The chapter adopts the terminology for detection and attribution proposed by the IPCC good practice guidance paper on detection and attribution (Hegerl et al., 2010) and for uncertainty Mastrandrea et al. (2011). Detection and attribution of impacts of climate changes are assessed by Working Group II, where Chapter 18 assesses the extent to which atmospheric and oceanic changes influence ecosystems, infrastructure, human health and activities in economic sectors.
720 citations
TL;DR: Satellite data is presented showing that ice shelves in many regions around the edge of Antarctica are losing mass, which increases concern about how fast sea level might rise as climate continues to warm.
Abstract: The floating ice shelves surrounding the Antarctic Ice Sheet restrain the grounded ice-sheet flow. Thinning of an ice shelf reduces this effect, leading to an increase in ice discharge to the ocean. Using 18 years of continuous satellite radar altimeter observations, we have computed decadal-scale changes in ice-shelf thickness around the Antarctic continent. Overall, average ice-shelf volume change accelerated from negligible loss at 25 ± 64 cubic kilometers per year for 1994–2003 to rapid loss of 310 ± 74 cubic kilometers per year for 2003–2012. West Antarctic losses increased by ~70% in the past decade, and earlier volume gain by East Antarctic ice shelves ceased. In the Amundsen and Bellingshausen regions, some ice shelves have lost up to 18% of their thickness in less than two decades.
598 citations
TL;DR: A complete temperature record for Byrd Station in central West Antarctica, spanning from 1958 to 2010, establishes West Antarctica as one of the fastest-warming regions globally as mentioned in this paper, but temperature trends in the region have remained uncertain.
Abstract: The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is contributing to sea-level rise, but temperature trends in the region have remained uncertain. A complete temperature record for Byrd Station in central West Antarctica, spanning from 1958 to 2010, establishes West Antarctica as one of the fastest-warming regions globally.
352 citations
TL;DR: A coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model is used to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment to sea-level rise.
Abstract: Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.
326 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models, combined with model and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution.
Abstract: We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21st century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with model- and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution. A moderate and a warmer climate change scenario are considered, yielding a global mean sea-level rise of 0.54 ±0.19 m and 0.71 ±0.28 m respectively (mean ±1σ). Regionally however, changes reach up to 30 % higher in coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and up to 20 % higher in the subtropical and equatorial regions, confirming patterns found in previous studies. Only 50 % of the global mean value is projected for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and off the western Antarctic coast. Uncertainty estimates for each component demonstrate that the land ice contribution dominates the total uncertainty.
324 citations
Cites background from "Stability of the West Antarctic ice..."
...This scenario does not include a possible collapse of the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet (Bamber et al. 2009; Joughin and Alley 2011)....
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...The bounds are chosen to represent the most plausible range of changes, and therefore do not include high-end values associated with a West-Antarctic ice sheet collapse, since timing, speed and magnitude of this event are still highly uncertain (Bamber et al. 2009; Joughin and Alley 2011)....
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References
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Abstract: This report is the first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. It covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
32,826 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a consistent record of mass balance for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets over the past two decades, validated by the comparison of two independent techniques over the last 8 years: one differencing perimeter loss from net accumulation, and one using a dense time series of time-variable gravity.
Abstract: [1] Ice sheet mass balance estimates have improved substantially in recent years using a variety of techniques, over different time periods, and at various levels of spatial detail. Considerable disparity remains between these estimates due to the inherent uncertainties of each method, the lack of detailed comparison between independent estimates, and the effect of temporal modulations in ice sheet surface mass balance. Here, we present a consistent record of mass balance for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets over the past two decades, validated by the comparison of two independent techniques over the last 8 years: one differencing perimeter loss from net accumulation, and one using a dense time series of time-variable gravity. We find excellent agreement between the two techniques for absolute mass loss and acceleration of mass loss. In 2006, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets experienced a combined mass loss of 475 ± 158 Gt/yr, equivalent to 1.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr sea level rise. Notably, the acceleration in ice sheet loss over the last 18 years was 21.9 ± 1 Gt/yr2 for Greenland and 14.5 ± 2 Gt/yr2 for Antarctica, for a combined total of 36.3 ± 2 Gt/yr2. This acceleration is 3 times larger than for mountain glaciers and ice caps (12 ± 6 Gt/yr2). If this trend continues, ice sheets will be the dominant contributor to sea level rise in the 21st century.
1,091 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the results of boundary layer theory for ice flux in the transition zone against numerical solutions that are able to resolve the transition zones were verified. But the results were not applied to the large-scale dynamics of a marine ice sheet.
Abstract: [1] The ice sheet–ice shelf transition zone plays an important role in controlling marine ice sheet dynamics, as it determines the rate at which ice flows out of the grounded part of the ice sheet. Together with accumulation, this outflow is the main control on the mass balance of the grounded sheet. In this paper, we verify the results of a boundary layer theory for ice flux in the transition zone against numerical solutions that are able to resolve the transition zone. Very close agreement is obtained, and grid refinement in the transition zone is identified as a critical component in obtaining reliable numerical results. The boundary layer theory confirms that ice flux through the grounding line in a two-dimensional sheet-shelf system increases sharply with ice thickness at the grounding line. This result is then applied to the large-scale dynamics of a marine ice sheet. Our principal results are that (1) marine ice sheets do not exhibit neutral equilibrium but have well-defined, discrete equilibrium profiles; (2) steady grounding lines cannot be stable on reverse bed slopes; and (3) marine ice sheets with overdeepened beds can undergo hysteresis under variations in sea level, accumulation rate, basal slipperiness, and ice viscosity. This hysteretic behavior can in principle explain the retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet following the Last Glacial Maximum and may play a role in the dynamics of Heinrich events.
1,021 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors estimate that East Antarctica is close to a balanced mass budget, but large losses of ice occur in the narrow outlet channels of West Antarctic glaciers and at the northern tip of the Antarctic peninsula.
Abstract: Observed estimates of ice losses in Antarctica combined with regional modelling of ice accumulation in the interior suggest that East Antarctica is close to a balanced mass budget, but large losses of ice occur in the narrow outlet channels of West Antarctic glaciers and at the northern tip of the Antarctic peninsula.
952 citations