Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a model of staggered prices along the lines of Phelps (1978) and Taylor (1979, 1980), but utilizing an analytically more tractable price-setting technology.
About: This article is published in Journal of Monetary Economics.The article was published on 1983-09-01. It has received 8580 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Nominal rigidity & Taylor rule.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed and estimated a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to set prices, and they concluded that the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good first approximation to the dynamics of inflation.
Abstract: We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to set prices. The model nests the purely forward looking New Keynesian Phillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap. Real marginal costs are a significant and quantitatively important determinant of inflation. Backward looking price setting, while statistically significant, is not quantitatively important. Thus, we conclude that the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good first approximation to the dynamics of inflation.
2,644 citations
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TL;DR: The authors present a model embodying moderate amounts of nominal rigidities which accounts for the observed inertia in inflation and persistence in output, and the key features of their model are those that prevent a sharp rise in marginal costs after an expansionary shock to monetary policy.
Abstract: We present a model embodying moderate amounts of nominal rigidities which accounts for the observed inertia in inflation and persistence in output. The key features of our model are those that prevent a sharp rise in marginal costs after an expansionary shock to monetary policy. Of these features, the most important are staggered wage contracts of average duration three quarters, and variable capital utilization.
2,580 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed and estimated a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward-looking rule to set prices, and the model nests the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve as a particular case.
2,514 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a simple quantitative model of output, interest rate and inflation determination in the United States, and uses it to evaluate alternative rules by which the Fed may set interest rates.
Abstract: This paper considers a simple quantitative model of output, interest rate and inflation determination in the United States, and uses it to evaluate alternative rules by which the Fed may set interest rates. The model is derived from optimizing behavior under rational expectations, both on the part of the purchasers of goods (who choose quantities to purchase given the expected path of real interest rates), and upon that of the sellers of goods (who set prices on the basis of the expected evolution of demand). Numerical parameter values are obtained in part by seeking to match the actual responses of the economy to a monetary shock to the responses predicted by the model. The resulting model matches the empirical responses quite well and, once due account is taken of its structural disturbances, can account for our data nearly as well as an unrestricted VAR. The monetary policy rule that most reduces inflation variability (and is best on this account) requires very variable interest rates, which in turn is...
2,210 citations
Cites background or methods from "Staggered prices in a utility-maxim..."
...It is also able to match the negative correlation of output with lagged nominal interest rates that King and Watson (1996) find cannot be explained by an optimizing model with Calvo-style staggered price setting similar to our own. Fuhrer (1997b) also draws attention to this correlation and suggests that a "backwards looking" IS curve is needed to explain it....
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...supply equation obtained from models such as those of Rotemberg (1982) and Calvo (1983), called by Roberts (1995) "the New Keynesian Phillips Curve....
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...Following Calvo (1983), we assume that prices are changed at exogenous random intervals....
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TL;DR: The authors analyzed the behavior of exchange rates, reserves, monetary aggregates, interest rates, and commodity prices across 154 exchange rate arrangements to assess whether official labels provide an adequate representation of actual country practice.
Abstract: In recent years, many countries have suffered severe financial crises, producing a staggering toll on their economies, particularly in emerging markets. One view blames fixed exchange rates“soft pegs”--for these meltdowns. Adherents to that view advise countries to allow their currency to float. We analyze the behavior of exchange rates, reserves, the monetary aggregates, interest rates, and commodity prices across 154 exchange rate arrangements to assess whether “official labels” provide an adequate representation of actual country practice. We find that, countries that say they allow their exchange rate to float mostly do not--there seems to be an epidemic case of “fear of floating.” Since countries that are classified as having a free or a managed float mostly resemble noncredible pegs--the so-called “demise of fixed exchange rates” is a myth--the fear of floating is pervasive, even among some of the developed countries. We present an analytical framework that helps to understand why there is fear of floating.
2,189 citations
References
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Book•
01 Jun 1984
TL;DR: In this article, the Routh-Hurwitz problem of singular pencils of matrices has been studied in the context of systems of linear differential equations with variable coefficients, and its applications to the analysis of complex matrices have been discussed.
Abstract: Volume 2: XI. Complex symmetric, skew-symmetric, and orthogonal matrices: 1. Some formulas for complex orthogonal and unitary matrices 2. Polar decomposition of a complex matrix 3. The normal form of a complex symmetric matrix 4. The normal form of a complex skew-symmetric matrix 5. The normal form of a complex orthogonal matrix XII. Singular pencils of matrices: 1. Introduction 2. Regular pencils of matrices 3. Singular pencils. The reduction theorem 4. The canonical form of a singular pencil of matrices 5. The minimal indices of a pencil. Criterion for strong equivalence of pencils 6. Singular pencils of quadratic forms 7. Application to differential equations XIII. Matrices with non-negative elements: 1. General properties 2. Spectral properties of irreducible non-negative matrices 3. Reducible matrices 4. The normal form of a reducible matrix 5. Primitive and imprimitive matrices 6. Stochastic matrices 7. Limiting probabilities for a homogeneous Markov chain with a finite number of states 8. Totally non-negative matrices 9. Oscillatory matrices XIV. Applications of the theory of matrices to the investigation of systems of linear differential equations: 1. Systems of linear differential equations with variable coefficients. General concepts 2. Lyapunov transformations 3. Reducible systems 4. The canonical form of a reducible system. Erugin's theorem 5. The matricant 6. The multiplicative integral. The infinitesimal calculus of Volterra 7. Differential systems in a complex domain. General properties 8. The multiplicative integral in a complex domain 9. Isolated singular points 10. Regular singularities 11. Reducible analytic systems 12. Analytic functions of several matrices and their application to the investigation of differential systems. The papers of Lappo-Danilevskii XV. The problem of Routh-Hurwitz and related questions: 1. Introduction 2. Cauchy indices 3. Routh's algorithm 4. The singular case. Examples 5. Lyapunov's theorem 6. The theorem of Routh-Hurwitz 7. Orlando's formula 8. Singular cases in the Routh-Hurwitz theorem 9. The method of quadratic forms. Determination of the number of distinct real roots of a polynomial 10. Infinite Hankel matrices of finite rank 11. Determination of the index of an arbitrary rational fraction by the coefficients of numerator and denominator 12. Another proof of the Routh-Hurwitz theorem 13. Some supplements to the Routh-Hurwitz theorem. Stability criterion of Lienard and Chipart 14. Some properties of Hurwitz polynomials. Stieltjes' theorem. Representation of Hurwitz polynomials by continued fractions 15. Domain of stability. Markov parameters 16. Connection with the problem of moments 17. Theorems of Markov and Chebyshev 18. The generalized Routh-Hurwitz problem Bibliography Index.
9,334 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that staggered wage contracts as short as 1 year are capable of generating the type of unemployment persistence which has been observed during postwar business cycles in the United States.
Abstract: Staggered wage contracts as short as 1 year are shown to be capable of generating the type of unemployment persistence which has been observed during postwar business cycles in the United States. A...
2,525 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, alternative monetary policies are analyzed in an ad hoc macroeconomic model in which the public's expectations about prices are rational, and it turns out that the probility distribution of output is independent of the particular deterministic money supply rule in effect.
Abstract: Alternative monetary policies are analyzed in an ad hoc macroeconomic model in which the public's expectations about prices are rational. The ad hoc model is one in which there is long-run neutrality, since it incorporates the aggregate supply schedule proposed by Lucas. Following Poole, the paper studies whether pegging the interest rate or pegging the money supply period by period minimizes an ad hoc quadratic loss function. It turns out that the probility distribution of output--dispersion as well as mean--is independent of the particular deterministic money supply rule in effect, and that under an interest rate rule the price level is indeterminate.
1,888 citations
Book•
01 Jul 1970TL;DR: In this paper, a theory of "controllability" is developed and injected into public economics and growth models to analyze optimal public expenditures in the context of modern growth theory, and a model of optimal growth with public capital is proposed.
Abstract: This book, co-authored by the Nobel-prized economist, Kenneth Arrow, considers public expenditures in the context of modern growth theory. It analyzes optimal growth with public capital. A theory of 'controllability' is developed and injected into public economics and growth models.
Originally published in 1970
1,006 citations
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910 citations