Statistical methods and scientific inference (3rd edition), by R. A. Fisher. Pp viii, 182. £4·95. 1973. SBN 0 02 844740 9 (Collier-Macmillan)
About: This article is published in The Mathematical Gazette.The article was published on 1974-12-01. It has received 38 citations till now.
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01 Jan 2001
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors consider four features of experimentation in economics, namely, script enactment, repeated trials, performance-based monetary payments, and the proscription against deception, and compare them to experimental practices in psychology, primarily in the area of behavioral decision making.
Abstract: This target article is concerned with the implications of the surprisingly different experimental practices in economics and in areas of psychology relevant to both economists and psychologists, such as behavioral decision making. We consider four features of experimentation in economics, namely, script enactment, repeated trials, performance-based monetary payments, and the proscription against deception, and compare them to experimental practices in psychology, primarily in the area of behavioral decision making. Whereas economists bring a precisely defined “script” to experiments for participants to enact, psychologists often do not provide such a script, leaving participants to infer what choices the situation affords. By often using repeated experimental trials, economists allow participants to learn about the task and the environment; psychologists typically do not. Economists generally pay participants on the basis of clearly defined performance criteria; psychologists usually pay a flat fee or grant a fixed amount of course credit. Economists virtually never deceive participants; psychologists, especially in some areas of inquiry, often do. We argue that experimental standards in economics are regulatory in that they allow for little variation between the experimental practices of individual researchers. The experimental standards in psychology, by contrast, are comparatively laissez-faire. We believe that the wider range of experimental practices in psychology reflects a lack of procedural regularity that may contribute to the variability of empirical findings in the research fields under consideration. We conclude with a call for more research on the consequences of methodological preferences, such as the use on monetary payments, and propose a “do-it-both-ways” rule regarding the enactment of scripts, repetition of trials, and performance-based monetary payments. We also argue, on pragmatic grounds, that the default practice should be not to deceive participants.
44 citations
Dissertation•
01 Jan 2005
TL;DR: In this paper, the role of statistical significance testing (SST) in education has been discussed and a thorough discussion of common misconceptions associated with SST and the major arguments for and against SST is presented.
Abstract: This study analyzes the role of statistical significance testing (SST) in education. Although the basic logic underlying SST 一 a hypothesis is rejected because the observed data would be very unlikely if the hypothesis is true 一 appears so obvious that many people are tempted to accept it, it is in fact fallacious. In the light of its historical background and conceptual development, discussed in Chapter 2, the Fisher’s significance testing, Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing and their hybrids are clearly distinguished. We argue that the probability of obtaining the observed or more extreme outcomes (p value) can hardly act as a measure of the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis. After discussing the five major interpretations of probability, we conclude that if we do not accept the subjective theory of probability, talking about the probability of a hypothesis that is not the outcome of a chance process is unintelligible. But the subjective theory itself has many intractable difficulties that can hardly be resolved. If we insist on assigning a probability value to a hypothesis in the same way as we assign one to a chance event, we have to accept that it is the hypothesis with low probability, rather than high probability, that we should aim at when conducting scientific research. More important, the inferences behind SST are shown to be fallacious from three different perspectives. The attempt to invoke the likelihood ratio with the observed or more extreme data instead of the probability of a hypothesis in defending the use of р value as a measure of the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis is also shown to be misleading because it can be demonstrated that the use of tail region to represent a result that is actually on the border would overstate the evidence against the ทน11 hypothesis.Although Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing does not involve the concept of the probability of a hypothesis, it does have some other serious problems that can hardly be resolved. We show that it cannot address researchers' genuine concerns. By explaining why the level of significance must be specified or fixed prior to the analysis of data and why a blurring of the distinction between the р value and the significance level would lead to undesirable consequences, we conclude that the Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing cannot provide an effective means for rejecting false hypotheses. After a thorough discussion of common misconceptions associated with SST and the major arguments for and against SST, we conclude that SST has insurmountable problems that could misguide the research paradigm although some other criticisms on SST are not really as justified. We also analyze various proposed alternatives to SST and conclude that confidence intervals (CIs) are no better than SST for the purpose of testing hypotheses and it is unreasonable to expect the existence of a statistical test that could provide researchers with algorithms or rigid rules by conforming to which all problems about testing hypotheses could be solved. Finally, we argue that falsificationism could eschew the disadvantages of SST and other similar statistical inductive inferences and we discuss how it could bring education research into a more fruitful situation in which to their practices. Although we pay special attention to mathematics education, the core of the discussion in the thesis might apply equally to other educational contexts.
18 citations
01 Jan 2008
17 citations
04 Nov 2016
TL;DR: In this paper, a qualitative analysis detects supplier characteristics for module developments by looking at three cases from different four wheel vehicle industries, and the identified supplier characteristics are tested empirically in regards to joint developments between buyers-suppliers (grey-box) and self-conducted supplier developments (black-box).
Abstract: Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) increasingly integrate supplier resources in new product developments (NPD) to overcome bottlenecks of resource and to create competitive advantages. At the same time, OEMs react to the new market challenges by implementing modular product designs. Despite the significant relevance, the area of supplier integration in NPD has not received as much attention as the analysis of customer integration in the NPD process. In view of that, this dissertation looks at antecedents like supplier characteristics that facilitate the integration of suppliers in NPD with special emphasize on modular product designs. In detail, five research papers are presented which are connected by a strong scientific relation. Each paper takes a different angle on the topic supplier integration while relational view represent the main theoretical lense (Dyer & Singh, 1998). The first paper examines the positive relation between supplier integration in NPD and performance of the buying firm. The second paper investigates sub-supplier integration by first-tier suppliers and the resulting effects on supplier innovativeness in buyer-supplier collaborations with the help of dyadic data from suppliers and buyers. Third, a qualitative analysis detects supplier characteristics for module developments by looking at three cases from different four wheel vehicle industries. In the following, the identified supplier characteristics are tested empirically in regards to joint developments between buyers-suppliers (grey-box) and self-conducted supplier developments (black-box). The last paper of this dissertation sheds light on the interplay of product modularity and technical knowledge in relation to interfirm collaborations between suppliers and buyers. Over-all, this dissertation enhances current knowledge concerning successful supplier-buyer collaborations by providing insights about organizational aspects to facilitate supplier integration, the role of sub-suppliers for supplier innovativeness and essential supplier characteristics for module developments in accordance to different supplier integration approaches.
17 citations
01 Jan 2004
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the nature du "test de signification d'une hypothese nulle" (NHST) presente peu de ressemblance avec le modele propose par Fisher il y a quelque quatre-vingts years.
Abstract: De nos jours la nature du «test de signification d'une hypothese nulle» (NHST) presente peu de ressemblance avec le modele propose par Fisher il y a quelque quatre-vingts ans. Au-dela de certains malentendus, le modele actuel incorpore des aspects que Fisher rejetait fermement. Le but de cet article est de mettre en evidence la facon dont le NHST differe du modele propose par Fisher en 1925 et, ce faisant, de resituer le modele initial par rapport aux methodes hybrides actuelles. On montre qu'associer le nom de Fisher a ces dernieres non seulement est incorrect, mais encore adresse a Fisher des reproches injustifies au sujet des profondes faiblesses methodologiques et philosophiques du NHST. On essaie de distinguer entre la methodologie originale de Fisher et l'hybride actuelle, et une approche generalement mal comprise de l'inference statistique. On montre que les chercheurs en sciences sociales utilisent aujourd'hui un defectueux et deplaisant melange des ingredients dus a Fisher, Neyman-Pearson et Bayes.
9 citations
References
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TL;DR: In this article, the first derivative of an estimator viewed as functional and the ways in which it can be used to study local robustness properties are discussed, and a theory of robust estimation "near" strict parametric models is briefly sketched and applied to some classical situations.
Abstract: This paper treats essentially the first derivative of an estimator viewed as functional and the ways in which it can be used to study local robustness properties. A theory of robust estimation “near” strict parametric models is briefly sketched and applied to some classical situations. Relations between von Mises functionals, the jackknife and U-statistics are indicated. A number of classical and new estimators are discussed, including trimmed and Winsorized means, Huber-estimators, and more generally maximum likelihood and M-estimators. Finally, a table with some numerical robustness properties is given.
2,410 citations
TL;DR: For example, the authors used consistency tests of a conjectural taxometric model with 94% success with zero false negatives to estimate numerical point values, even if approximate with rough tolerances; and lacking this, ranges, orderings, secondorder differences, curve peaks and valleys, and function forms should be used.
Abstract: Theories in “soft” areas of psychology lack the cumulative character of scientific knowledge. They tend neither to be refuted nor corroborated, but instead merely fade away as people lose interest. Even though intrinsic subject matter difficulties (20 listed) contribute to this, the excessive reliance on significance testing is partly responsible, being a poor way of doing science. Karl Popper’s approach, with modifications, would be prophylactic. Since the null hypothesis is quasi-always false, tables summarizing research in terms of patterns of “significant differences” are little more than complex, causally uninterpretable outcomes of statistical power functions. Multiple paths to estimating numerical point values (“consistency tests”) are better, even if approximate with rough tolerances; and lacking this, ranges, orderings, second-order differences, curve peaks and valleys, and function forms should be used. Such methods are usual in developed sciences that seldom report statistical significance. Consistency tests of a conjectural taxometric model yielded 94% success with zero false negatives.
1,669 citations
TL;DR: The necessarily curvilinear relationship between the finite range of recorded FIM raw scores and the conceptually infinite range of additive disability measures is resolved through Rasch analysis.
1,105 citations
TL;DR: The concluding opinion is that NHST is easily misunderstood and misused but that when applied with good judgment it can be an effective aid to the interpretation of experimental data.
Abstract: Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is arguably the most widely used approach to hypothesis evaluation among behavioral and social scientists. It is also very controversial. A major concern expressed by critics is that such testing is misunderstood by many of those who use it. Several other objections to its use have also been raised. In this article the author reviews and comments on the claimed misunderstandings as well as on other criticisms of the approach, and he notes arguments that have been advanced in support of NHST. Alternatives and supplements to NHST are considered, as are several related recommendations regarding the interpretation of experimental data. The concluding opinion is that NHST is easily misunderstood and misused but that when applied with good judgment it can be an effective aid to the interpretation of experimental data.
987 citations
TL;DR: The duality between the maximum entropy method (MEM) and the autoregressive representation of the data allows the application of recent advances in AR analysis to MEM in an attempt to obviate some shortcomings in this method of spectral decomposition as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: The duality between the maximum entropy method (MEM) of spectral analysis and the autoregressive (AR) representation of the data allows the application of recent advances in AR analysis to MEM in an attempt to obviate some shortcomings in this method of spectral decomposition. Specifically, this paper investigates the work of Akaike (1969a, b) on a criterion for choosing the length of the required prediction error filter and compares two methods of determining the filter coefficients. Recent work by Kromer (1970) on asymptotic properties of the AR spectral estimator is also of importance. Some preliminary results of the splitting of the normal modes of the earth are presented as an illustration of the application of MEM to geophysics.
920 citations