Stochastic Models for Social Processes.
About: This article is published in Journal of the American Statistical Association.The article was published on 1970-03-01. It has received 129 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Stochastic modelling.
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TL;DR: The authors found that the long-run factors associated with parental background and family environment, and not credit constraints facing prospective students in the college-going years, account for most of the racial and ethnic disparities in college attendance.
Abstract: This paper estimates a dynamic model of schooling attainment to investigate the sources of racial and ethnic disparity in college attendance. Parental income in the child’s adolescent years is a strong predictor of this disparity. This is widely interpreted to mean that credit constraints facing families during the college‐going years are important. Using NLSY data, we find that it is the long‐run factors associated with parental background and family environment, and not credit constraints facing prospective students in the college‐going years, that account for most of the racial‐ethnic college‐going differential. Policies aimed at improving these long‐term family and environmental factors are more likely to be successful in eliminating college attendance differentials than short‐term tuition reduction and family income supplement policies aimed at families with college age children.
1,004 citations
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27 Sep 1990
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigate how the expansion of the educational system affects productivity and the growth and distribution of income in Kenya and Tanzania, and investigate the effects of country differences in the quantity and quality education on output.
Abstract: Drawing on the experiences of Kenya and Tanzania, investigates how the expansion of the educational system affects productivity and the growth and distribution of income. Explains that Kenya and Tanzania, with their similar colonial background, natural resources, and economic structure, but markedly divergent educational policies, constitute a "natural experiment." Obtains measures of both reasoning ability and cognitive skill from surveys of representative samples of urban wage employees, allowing the development of a model to evaluate the human capital, screening, and credentialist interpretations of the link between educational attainment and earnings. Evaluates competing explanations for the steeper earnings-experience profile of the more educated. Estimates the effects of country differences in the quantity and quality education on output. Analyzes occupation as an important intermediary between education and earnings. Isolates the effect that institutional intervention by the government has on the wage structure. Measures the responsiveness of the wages of secondary and primary leavers to changes in their relative supply. Examines how levels of inequality change in response to changes in the composition of the workforce that result from educational expansion. Considers the equality of the distribution of school places in Kenya and Tanzania. Explores whether the expansion of secondary enrollment in Kenya, and the contrasting situation in Tanzania, have affected the degree of intergenerational mobility and the process of class formation. Examines methodological and policy issues in the cost-benefit analysis and in the financing of secondary education. Considers the implications of the findings for future research and the extent to which the results can be generalized to other countries and situations. A companion volume, Education, Work and Pay in East Africa, describes the economies and education systems of Kenya and Tanzania, and contains an annotated set of cross-tabulations and other summary statistics based on East African surveys. Knight is a Senior member of the research staff at the Institute of Economics and Statistics. Sabot is Professor of Economics at Williams College. Index.
272 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present conceptual and methodological implications of vacancy competition for research on the labor market and on allocation to instructional groups in schools, and propose a mechanism of allocation in closed position systems, called vacancy competition.
Abstract: Abstract This paper analyses mechanisms of allocation to closed positions in social structure. Closed positions are characterized by only being available when vacated by the previous incumbent, so that new allocations resulting in new matches between people and persons cannot be linked to changes in performance or the availability of more qualified candidates. The mechanism of allocation in closed position systems, called vacancy competition, is contrasted to the allocated mechanism operating in open position systems that are competitive markets. The paper presents conceptual and methodological implications of vacancy competition for research on the labor market and on allocation to instructional groups in schools.
189 citations
TL;DR: An overview of such modelling techniques is provided, with particular attention to their impact and suitability in managing a hospital service.
Abstract: Modelling patient flow in health care systems is vital in understanding the system activity and may therefore prove to be useful in improving their functionality. An extensively used measure is the average length of stay which, although easy to calculate and quantify, is not considered appropriate when the distribution is very long-tailed. In fact, simple deterministic models are generally considered inadequate because of the necessity for models to reflect the complex, variable, dynamic and multidimensional nature of the systems. This paper focuses on modelling length of stay and flow of patients. An overview of such modelling techniques is provided, with particular attention to their impact and suitability in managing a hospital service.
166 citations
TL;DR: The findings indicate that educational data for learning analytics is context specific and variables carry different meanings and can have different implications across educational institutions and area of studies.
Abstract: Interest in collecting and mining large sets of educational data on student background and performance to conduct research on learning and instruction has developed as an area generally referred to as learning analytics. Higher education leaders are recognizing the value of learning analytics for improving not only learning and teaching but also the entire educational arena. However, theoretical concepts and empirical evidence need to be generated within the fast evolving field of learning analytics. The purpose of the two reported cases studies is to identify alternative approaches to data analysis and to determine the validity and accuracy of a learning analytics framework and its corresponding student and learning profiles. The findings indicate that educational data for learning analytics is context specific and variables carry different meanings and can have different implications across educational institutions and area of studies. Benefits, concerns, and challenges of learning analytics are critically reflected, indicating that learning analytics frameworks need to be sensitive to idiosyncrasies of the educational institution and its stakeholders.
164 citations