Structural characteristics of fixed-odds sports betting products.
TL;DR: Structural characteristics of payout interval and potential betting frequency, multiplier potential, win probability and payout ratio, bettor involvement, and near-misses were all identified in modern fixed-odds sports betting products, which have increasingly incorporated structural characteristics previously found in EGMs.
Abstract: Background and aims A literature exists on the structural characteristics of electronic gambling machines (EGMs), which are design innovations that can promote spending excessive time and money on these games. Fixed-odds sports betting products, where bettors place sports bets against a bookmaker, have also seen significant innovations in recent years. Despite some differences between these gambling products, similar structural characteristics could also be relevant to sports betting. The aim was to review previous research on contemporary fixed-odds sports betting products, and to identify whether structural characteristics from the EGM literature are also relevant to sports betting. Methods Structural characteristics uncovered by two influential reviews of EGMs were identified, and their relevance to fixed-odds sports betting products discussed via a narrative review. Results Structural characteristics of payout interval and potential betting frequency (in-play betting), multiplier potential (accumulators, complex bets, multis), win probability and payout ratio (all bets), bettor involvement (custom sports betting products, cash out), skill required (all bets), and near-misses (accumulators, complex bets, multis) were all identified in modern fixed-odds sports betting products. Discussion and conclusions Fixed-odds sports betting products have increasingly incorporated structural characteristics previously found in EGMs. Future research could further assess the extent to which these structural characteristics contribute to fixed-odds sports bettors spending excessive amounts of time and money while betting. These findings can help guide further sports betting research, contribute to an improved understanding of the potential universality of gambling product design, and inform policy.
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Posted Content•
01 Jan 2008
TL;DR: In horse-race betting, the odds on the various horses in any race are a functioning of the proportion of the total money that is bet on each and hence are socially determined.
Abstract: In horse-race betting, the odds on the various horses in any race are a functioning of the proportion of the total money that is bet on each and hence are socially determined. On the other hand, the objective probability for winners from any group of horses is given a posteriori by the percentage of winners. Thus the odds express (reciprocally) a psychological probability while the percentage of winners at any odds group measures the true probability; any consistent discrepancy between the two may cast light not only on the specific topics of horse-race betting and gambling but on the more general field of the psychology of probabilities…
267 citations
TL;DR: The authors defines a gamblified investment product as one that leads most investors to lose, that attracts people at risk of experiencing gambling-related harm, and that utilizes product design principles from gambling (either by encouraging a high frequency of use or by providing the allure of big lottery-like wins).
Abstract: Investing and gambling share key features, in that both involve risk, the coming together of two or more people, and both are voluntary activities. However, investing is generally a much better way than gambling for the average person to make long-run profits. This paper reviews evidence on two types of “gamblified” investment products where this advantage does not hold for investing: high-frequency stock trading and high-risk derivatives. This review defines a gamblified investment product as one that leads most investors to lose, that attracts people at risk of experiencing gambling-related harm, and that utilizes product design principles from gambling (either by encouraging a high frequency of use or by providing the allure of big lottery-like wins). The gamblification of investing produces novel challenges for the regulation of both financial markets and gambling.
5 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the influence of two potential risk-factors on sports betting behavior and problems: erroneous beliefs and athletes' emotional involvement, was examined, and they found that emotional involvement was strongly associated with betting problems whereas erroneous beliefs were not.
Abstract: Background and aims The sports betting market has been growing rapidly over the last years, as have reports of problematic gambling behavior associated with betting. Due to the well-documented gambling problems of famous athletes and the betting supportive nature of many sports-related environments, athletes have been highlighted as a potential group at-risk for problematic sports betting. However, there currently remains a lack of research on individual-level athlete-specific risk-factors or mechanisms that might contribute to the development and perpetuation of betting-related problems. Here, we examine the influence of two potential risk-factors on sports betting behavior and problems: erroneous beliefs and athletes' emotional involvement. Methods 201 athletes with different levels of expertise completed a newly developed scale to assess both factors. Participants were sampled from the general German population, predominantly male (83.08%) and on average 29.52 (SD = 11.05) years old. We use principal components analysis to detect patterns of covariation, potentially due to the proposed underlying latent factors, and regression analyses to test associations of these factors with betting behavior and problems. Results We find that athletes' emotional involvement was strongly associated with betting problems whereas erroneous beliefs were not. However, distorted cognitions/beliefs were associated with higher volumes and more frequent betting activities. Discussion and conclusions This might contribute to betting problems in the long run. These results highlight athletes' emotional involvement and erroneous beliefs as potential targets for future intervention and prevention efforts.
2 citations
TL;DR: In this article , a study aimed to adapt and investigate the concept of tilting amongst sport bettors in order to provide preliminary insight regarding previously unexplored instances of maladaptive sports betting.
Abstract: Tilting is a poker-related phenomenon that involves cognitive and emotional dysregulation in response to unfavourable gambling outcomes. Tilting is characterised by an increase in irrational, impulsive and strategically weak betting decisions. This study aimed to adapt and investigate the concept of tilting amongst sport bettors in order to provide preliminary insight regarding previously unexplored instances of maladaptive sports betting. The sample consisted of 225 sports bettors who completed an online questionnaire that investigated their reported tilting episodes, awareness of tilting, impulsivity, perceived skill, gambling severity, gambling frequency, and product preferences. Cluster analyses revealed three distinct groups of sports bettors based on their reported tilting episodes and their awareness of this phenomenon. The first group were labelled ‘Conscious tilters’ due to being cognizant of their own tilting occurrence which was significantly higher than the other two groups. These ‘Conscious tilters’ had the highest mean problem gambling severity that was indicative of the ‘problem gambler’ categorisation. The second group were labelled ‘Unconscious tilters’ due to their underestimation of their own tilting occurrence and were categorised as ‘moderate risk gamblers’. The third group were labelled ‘Non-tilters’ due to a relatively accurate perception of their low to non-existent tilting occurrence and were categorised as ‘low-risk gamblers’. Additionally, there were significant differences between these groups in relation to reported gambling frequency, impulsivity, and product preferences. There is evidence of various classifications of ‘tilters’ within sports betting. Specific sports betting product features may also facilitate tilting and therefore require further research in this context. It is important for this research area to develop in order to mitigate harms associated with the rapidly changing sport betting environment.
1 citations
TL;DR: In this article , the authors examined whether certain categories and subcategories of product are more strongly associated with behavioural markers of harm than others and highlighted the potential value of using measurable markers to differentiate the risk and potential harm associated with different online products.
Abstract: Abstract Many studies have been conducted to identify potentially useful behavioural markers of harmful behaviour using online gambling data sourced from operators. However, less is known about how such markers could be used to identify higher risk products. The study examined whether certain categories and subcategories of product are more strongly associated with behavioural markers of harm than others. Analyses were based on 6 months of data ( N = 100,000 individual gamblers) drawn from the population of UK users of an online gambling website in 2022. Measures included individual-level expenditure data across multiple forms of gambling and a series of literature-informed behavioural markers of harm including declined deposits, easing/removing responsible gambling settings, within-session repeat deposits (or ‘top-ups’), bonus-seeking behaviour and gambling at unusual hours. Negative binomial models examined how well the number of active days playing different products predicted behavioural markers of harm. All markers apart from easing/removing responsible gambling settings appeared to covary with the number of active days engaging in specific product types, most notably slots, in-playing betting and some most forms of combination bets on sports. These findings highlight the potential value of using measurable markers to differentiate the risk and potential harm associated with different online products.
1 citations
References
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Book•
01 Jan 1921
TL;DR: In Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Frank Knight explored the riddle of profitability in a competitive market profit should not be possible under competitive conditions, as the entry of new entrepreneurs would drive prices down and nullify margins, however evidence abounds of competitive yet profitable markets as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: In Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Frank Knight explored the riddle of profitability in a competitive market profit should not be possible under competitive conditions, as the entry of new entrepreneurs would drive prices down and nullify margins, however evidence abounds of competitive yet profitable markets. To explain this seeming paradox, Knight uncovers the distinction between calculable risk and essentially unknowable uncertainty. Knight argued that risk stems from repeated events, which therefore allow probabilities to be calculated and factored into decisions, as for instance insurers do. Uncertainty however, stems from events that are unpredictable and as such cannot be prepared against. According to Knight, it is the interplay between risk and uncertainty on the one hand and competition between incumbent and new entrepreneurs that accounts for the enormous variation in profitability across firms and, for the same firms, over time. His insights on the sources of profit have been instrumental in shaping modern economic theory and to the development of a useful understanding of probability. This New Edition has been typeset with modern techniques and contains a newly compiled Index of important topics. It has been painstakingly proofread to ensure that it is free from errors and that the content is faithful to the original.
10,309 citations
"Structural characteristics of fixed..." refers background in this paper
...Sports betting contrastingly involves “uncertainty” (Knight, 1921), as any given event can only be experienced once, and the true probabilities cannot be known with certainty....
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11 May 2014
TL;DR: In this article, an anthropologist describes how the mechanical rhythm of electronic gambling pulls players into a trancelike state they call the "machine zone," in which daily worries, social demands, and even bodily awareness fade away.
Abstract: Recent decades have seen a dramatic shift away from social forms of gambling played around roulette wheels and card tables to solitary gambling at electronic terminals. Slot machines, revamped by ever more compelling digital and video technology, have unseated traditional casino games as the gambling industry's revenue mainstay. Addiction by Design takes readers into the intriguing world of machine gambling, an increasingly popular and absorbing form of play that blurs the line between human and machine, compulsion and control, risk and reward. Drawing on fifteen years of field research in Las Vegas, anthropologist Natasha Dow Schll shows how the mechanical rhythm of electronic gambling pulls players into a trancelike state they call the "machine zone," in which daily worries, social demands, and even bodily awareness fade away. Once in the zone, gambling addicts play not to win but simply to keep playing, for as long as possible--even at the cost of physical and economic exhaustion. In continuous machine play, gamblers seek to lose themselves while the gambling industry seeks profit. Schll describes the strategic calculations behind game algorithms and machine ergonomics, casino architecture and "ambience management," player tracking and cash access systems--all designed to meet the market's desire for maximum "time on device." Her account moves from casino floors into gamblers' everyday lives, from gambling industry conventions and Gamblers Anonymous meetings to regulatory debates over whether addiction to gambling machines stems from the consumer, the product, or the interplay between the two. Addiction by Design is a compelling inquiry into the intensifying traffic between people and machines of chance, offering clues to some of the broader anxieties and predicaments of contemporary life. At stake in Schll's account of the intensifying traffic between people and machines of chance is a blurring of the line between design and experience, profit and loss, control and compulsion.
627 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: The literature on wagering, albeit contentious, has established the following: prices set in these markets, to a first approximation, are efficient forecasts of outcomes as discussed by the authors. But there are important departures from generic notions of market efficiency.
Abstract: Wagering markets provide a natural laboratory for testing models of market prices and behavior under uncertainty. The literature on wagering, albeit contentious, has established the following. First, prices set in these markets, to a first approximation, are efficient forecasts of outcomes. Second, price changes in these markets are driven by an informed class of bettors and improve prediction. Nevertheless, there are important departures from generic notions of market efficiency. Recent models focusing on diverse information, heterogeneous agents, and transaction costs help to explain these findings.
431 citations
"Structural characteristics of fixed..." refers background in this paper
...If the house-edge were constant across sports bets at different odds, then a comparison of odds would be sufficient to derive the relative win probability across different bets (Sauer, 1998)....
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TL;DR: It is demonstrated that the 23-item GRCS has good psychometric properties and thus is a useful instrument for identifying GRC among non-clinical gamblers and provides the first step towards devising/adapting similar tools for problem gamblers.
Abstract: Aims The aims of this study are to develop and validate a measure to screen for a range of gambling-related cognitions (GRC) in gamblers. Design and participants A total of 968 volunteers were recruited from a community-based population. They were divided randomly into two groups. Principal axis factoring with varimax rotation was performed on group one and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used on group two to confirm the best-fitted solution. Measurements The Gambling Related Cognition Scale (GRCS) was developed for this study and the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS), the Motivation Towards Gambling Scale (MTGS) and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS-2 1) were used for validation. Findings Exploratory factor analysis performed using half the sample indicated five factors, which included interpretative control/bias (GRCS-IB), illusion of control (GRCS-IC), predictive control (GRCS-PC), gambling-related expectancies (GRCS-GE) and a perceived inability to stop gambling (GRCS-IS). These accounted for 70% of the total variance. Using the other half of the sample, CFA confirmed that the five-factor solution fitted the data most effectively. Cronbach's alpha coefficients for the factors ranged from 0.77 to 0.91, and 0.93 for the overall scale. Conclusions This paper demonstrated that the 23-item GRCS has good psychometric properties and thus is a useful instrument for identifying GRC among non-clinical gamblers. It provides the first step towards devising/adapting similar tools for problem gamblers as well as developing more specialized instruments to assess particular domains of GRC.
427 citations
TL;DR: Delayed reward discounting is associated robustly with continuous measures of addiction severity and quantity-frequency and this relation is generally robust across type of addictive behavior and delayed Reward discounting assessment modality.
Abstract: Aims
To synthesize continuous associations between delayed reward discounting (DRD) and both addiction severity and quantity-frequency (QF); to examine moderators of these relationships; and to investigate publication bias.
Methods
Meta-analysis of published studies examining continuous associations between DRD and addictive behaviors. Published, peer-reviewed studies on addictive behaviors (alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, stimulants, opiates, and gambling) were identified via PubMed, MEDLINE, and PsycInfo. Studies were restricted to DRD measures of monetary gains. Random effects meta-analysis was conducted using Pearson's r as the effect size. Publication bias was evaluated using fail-safe N, Begg-Mazumdar and Egger's tests, meta-regression of publication year and effect size, and imputation of missing studies.
Results
The primary meta-analysis revealed a small magnitude effect size that was highly significant (r = 0.14, p < 10-14). Significantly larger effect sizes were observed for studies examining severity compared with QF (p = 0.01), but not between the type of addictive behavior (p = 0.30) or DRD assessment (p = 0.90). Indices of publication bias suggested a modest impact of unpublished findings.
Conclusions
Delayed reward discounting is robustly associated with continuous measures of addiction severity and quantity-frequency. This relation is generally robust across type of addictive behavior and delayed reward discounting assessment modality.
377 citations