Sustainable energy futures : Methodological challenges in combining scenarios and participatory multi-criteria analysis
TL;DR: The paper concludes that assessing scenarios with PMCA is resource intense, but this methodology captures successfully the context of technology deployment and allows decision-making based on a robust and democratic process, which addresses uncertainties, acknowledges multiple legitimate perspectives and encourages social learning.
About: This article is published in European Journal of Operational Research.The article was published on 2009-09-16. It has received 360 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Scenario analysis.
Citations
More filters
TL;DR: A review of the current state of the art in computational optimization methods applied to renewable and sustainable energy can be found in this article, which offers a clear vision of the latest research advances in this field.
Abstract: Energy is a vital input for social and economic development. As a result of the generalization of agricultural, industrial and domestic activities the demand for energy has increased remarkably, especially in emergent countries. This has meant rapid grower in the level of greenhouse gas emissions and the increase in fuel prices, which are the main driving forces behind efforts to utilize renewable energy sources more effectively, i.e. energy which comes from natural resources and is also naturally replenished. Despite the obvious advantages of renewable energy, it presents important drawbacks, such as the discontinuity of generation, as most renewable energy resources depend on the climate, which is why their use requires complex design, planning and control optimization methods. Fortunately, the continuous advances in computer hardware and software are allowing researchers to deal with these optimization problems using computational resources, as can be seen in the large number of optimization methods that have been applied to the renewable and sustainable energy field. This paper presents a review of the current state of the art in computational optimization methods applied to renewable and sustainable energy, offering a clear vision of the latest research advances in this field.
1,394 citations
Cites background from "Sustainable energy futures : Method..."
...[31] evaluated several renewable energy scenarios according to different sustainability criteria....
[...]
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a decision-support framework for assessing and identifying the most sustainable energy options for future electricity supply in Mexico by considering three sustainability dimensions: environmental, economic and social.
464 citations
340 citations
TL;DR: A review of the current state of the art in decision support methods applied to renewable and sustainable energy throughout the literature in the field of energy planning is presented in this article, where selected papers were classified by their year of publication, decision making technique, energy type, the criteria used, geographic distribution and the application areas.
Abstract: One of the problems facing researchers in the application of renewable energy systems is that the evaluation of the sustainability is extremely perplex. Decision making in energy projects requires consideration of technical, economic, environmental and social impacts and is often complicated. This paper presents a review of the current state of the art in decision support methods applied to renewable and sustainable energy throughout the literature in the field of energy planning. The selected papers were classified by their year of publication, decision making technique, energy type, the criteria used, geographic distribution and the application areas.
300 citations
TL;DR: A literature review that covers eight problem structuring approaches and seven MCDA methods, finding that AHP was by far the most commonly applied MCDA method and the three PSMs most commonly combined with MCDA are SWOT, Scenario Planning and DPSIR.
266 citations
Cites background or methods from "Sustainable energy futures : Method..."
...In five of the ten cases, an uncertainty analysis was performed to analyse how the rankings or priority values of alternatives varied across scenarios (e.g. Kowalski et al., 2009, Scholten et al., 2015)....
[...]
...The integration of MCDA and scenario analysis is promising, but methodologically challenging (e.g. Kowalski et al., 2009, Ram and Montibeller, 2013)....
[...]
...Others used a cost-equivalent technique to compare the performance across scenarios (Ram et al., 2011, Ram and Montibeller, 2013), or calculated aggregate rankings over the scenarios (e.g. Kowalski et al., 2009)....
[...]
...Stakeholder Analysis (Lienert et al., 2015), SWOT (Leskinen et al., 2006) and Value-Focused Thinking (Montibeller et al., 2006) were used to support the structuring phase, and MAVT (Ram and Montibeller, 2013, Scholten et al., 2015, Montibeller et al., 2006), AHP (Leskinen et al., 2006) and PROMETHEE (Kowalski et al., 2009) were used to evaluate the alternatives in different scenarios....
[...]
...In most cases the same criteria weights were used for all scenarios (Montibeller et al., 2006, e.g. Kowalski et al., 2009, Straton et al., 2011, Scholten et al., 2015)....
[...]
References
More filters
TL;DR: In this article, the Promethee methods, a new class of outranking methods in multicriteria analysis, have been proposed, whose main features are simplicity, clearness and stability.
1,996 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: The main features of the Promethee methods are simplicity, clearness and stability, a new class of outranking methods in multicriteria analysis, and some further problems are discussed.
Abstract: Abstract In this paper, we present the Promethee methods, a new class of outranking methods in multicriteria analysis. Their main features are simplicity, clearness and stability. The notion of generalized criterion is used to construct a valued outranking relation. All the parameters to be defined have an economic signification, so that the decision maker can easily fix them. Two ways of treatment are proposed: It is possible to obtain either a partial preorder ( Promethee I) or a complete one ( Promethee II), both on a finite set of feasible actions. A comparison is made with the Electre III method. The stability of the results given by the two methods is analysed. Numerical applications are given in order to illustrate the properties of the new methods and some further problems are discussed.
1,887 citations
TL;DR: The main argument developed here is the proposal of the concept of social multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) as a possible useful framework for the application of social choice to the difficult policy problems of the authors' millennium, where “facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent”.
653 citations
01 Jan 2004
TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose the concept of social multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) as a possible useful framework for the application of social choice to the difficult policy problems of our millennium, where, as stated by Funtowicz and Ravetz, facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent.
Abstract: In order to address contemporary issues economics and decision sciences need to expand their empirical relevance by introducing more and more realistic (thus more complex) assumptions in their models. One of the most interesting research directions in the field of public economics is the attempt to introduce political constraints, interest groups and collusion effects explicitly (J.J. Laffont, Incentives and Political Economy, 2000). The main argument developed here is the proposal of the concept of social multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) as a possible useful framework for the application of social choice to the difficult policy problems of our millennium, where, as stated by Funtowicz and Ravetz, ‘‘facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent’’. This paper starts from the following main questions: 1. Why ‘‘social’’ multi-criteria evaluation? 2. How should such an approach be developed?
613 citations
Book•
01 Oct 1998
TL;DR: The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the World Energy Council (WEC) present six alternative long-term energy futures as mentioned in this paper, covering a wide range from a tremendous expansion of coal production to strict limits, from a phaseout of nuclear energy to a substantial increase, from carbon emissions in 2100 that are only one-third of today's levels to increases by more than a factor of three.
Abstract: Global energy needs are expanding with economic development around the world and population growth. There is now strong evidence that growing energy use risks damaging the environment and changing global climate. Consumers want higher levels of more efficient, cleaner, and less obtrusive energy services. How of those needs will be met by fossil fuels, how much by alternative fuels, and how much by efficiency increases and expanded energy conservation is a crucial question and the focus of this book.
The International Institue for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the World Energy Council (WEC) present six alternative long-term energy futures. They cover a wide range -- from a tremendous expansion of coal production to strict limits, from a phaseout of nuclear energy to a substantial increase, from carbon emissions in 2100 that are only one-third of today's levels to increases by more than a factor of three. All allow significant economic growth without exhausting energy resources, but all require substantial, yet different, early investments. These early investments will determine which fuels, technologies, efficiency gains, conservation patterns, and pollution levels are most likely to characterize the 21st century.
This book addresses issues that are of central concern to a very wide audience, since the provision of adequate energy services is a prerequisite for human development. The primary audience includes researchers, educators, policymakers in private and public sectors, and other workers in the energy, technology, economics, and environmental areas, but the book will appeal to anyone interested in the future of energy production and the environment.
572 citations