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Journal ArticleDOI

Test sensitivity is secondary to frequency and turnaround time for COVID-19 screening.

TL;DR: It is demonstrated that effective screening depends largely on frequency of testing and speed of reporting and is only marginally improved by high test sensitivity, and should prioritize accessibility, frequency, and sample-to-answer time.
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has created a public health crisis. Because SARS-CoV-2 can spread from individuals with presymptomatic, symptomatic, and asymptomatic infections, the reopening of societies and the control of virus spread will be facilitated by robust population screening, for which virus testing will often be central. After infection, individuals undergo a period of incubation during which viral titers are too low to detect, followed by exponential viral growth, leading to peak viral load and infectiousness and ending with declining titers and clearance. Given the pattern of viral load kinetics, we model the effectiveness of repeated population screening considering test sensitivities, frequency, and sample-to-answer reporting time. These results demonstrate that effective screening depends largely on frequency of testing and speed of reporting and is only marginally improved by high test sensitivity. We therefore conclude that screening should prioritize accessibility, frequency, and sample-to-answer time; analytical limits of detection should be secondary.
Citations
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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The crucial role of diagnostic tests during the first global wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the technical and implementation problems encountered during the early phase of the pandemic are explored and future directions for the progressive and better use of diagnostics during a possible resurgence of CO VID-19 in future global waves or regional outbreaks are defined.
Abstract: During the early phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, design, development, validation, verification and implementation of diagnostic tests were actively addressed by a large number of diagnostic test manufacturers. Hundreds of molecular tests and immunoassays were rapidly developed, albeit many still await clinical validation and formal approval. In this Review, we summarize the crucial role of diagnostic tests during the first global wave of COVID-19. We explore the technical and implementation problems encountered during this early phase in the pandemic, and try to define future directions for the progressive and better use of (syndromic) diagnostics during a possible resurgence of COVID-19 in future global waves or regional outbreaks. Continuous global improvement in diagnostic test preparedness is essential for more rapid detection of patients, possibly at the point of care, and for optimized prevention and treatment, in both industrialized countries and low-resource settings.

544 citations

Journal Article
TL;DR: In this article, the authors deal with two exact mathematical models of study: a borrowed model with constant intensity of study and an amodel with variable intensity of studying derived by the authors using data acquired in real pedagogical research.
Abstract: The paper deals with two exact mathematical models of study: A borrowed model with constant intensity of study and amodel with variable intensity of study derived by the authors are presented using data acquired in real pedagogical research. Thebounding of study performance is proved and precisely determined in dependence on personal (group) parameters of study andintensity of forgetting. The parameter of forgetting has decisive influence on total performance.

294 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The first local transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant was reported in mainland China in early 2019 as mentioned in this paper , where all 167 infections could be traced back to the first index case.
Abstract: Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has spread rapidly worldwide. To provide data on its virological profile, we here report the first local transmission of Delta in mainland China. All 167 infections could be traced back to the first index case. Daily sequential PCR testing of quarantined individuals indicated that the viral loads of Delta infections, when they first become PCR-positive, were on average ~1000 times greater compared to lineage A/B infections during the first epidemic wave in China in early 2020, suggesting potentially faster viral replication and greater infectiousness of Delta during early infection. The estimated transmission bottleneck size of the Delta variant was generally narrow, with 1-3 virions in 29 donor-recipient transmission pairs. However, the transmission of minor iSNVs resulted in at least 3 of the 34 substitutions that were identified in the outbreak, highlighting the contribution of intra-host variants to population-level viral diversity during rapid spread.

251 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a minimum of 80% sensitivity and 97% specificity for antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs), which can be used for patients with symptoms consistent with COVID-19, are recommended.
Abstract: WHO recommends a minimum of 80% sensitivity and 97% specificity for antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs), which can be used for patients with symptoms consistent with COVID-19. However, after the acute phase when viral load decreases, use of Ag-RDTs might lead to high rates of false negatives, suggesting that the tests should be replaced by a combination of molecular and serological tests. When the likelihood of having COVID-19 is low, such as for asymptomatic individuals in low prevalence settings, for travel, return to schools, workplaces, and mass gatherings, Ag-RDTs with high negative predictive values can be used with confidence to rule out infection. For those who test positive in low prevalence settings, the high false positive rate means that mitigation strategies, such as molecular testing to confirm positive results, are needed. Ag-RDTs, when used appropriately, are promising tools for scaling up testing and ensuring that patient management and public health measures can be implemented without delay.

244 citations

References
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Journal ArticleDOI
01 Apr 2020-Nature
TL;DR: Detailed virological analysis of nine cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) provides proof of active replication of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in tissues of the upper respiratory tract.
Abstract: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an acute infection of the respiratory tract that emerged in late 20191,2. Initial outbreaks in China involved 13.8% of cases with severe courses, and 6.1% of cases with critical courses3. This severe presentation may result from the virus using a virus receptor that is expressed predominantly in the lung2,4; the same receptor tropism is thought to have determined the pathogenicity—but also aided in the control—of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 20035. However, there are reports of cases of COVID-19 in which the patient shows mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, which suggests the potential for pre- or oligosymptomatic transmission6–8. There is an urgent need for information on virus replication, immunity and infectivity in specific sites of the body. Here we report a detailed virological analysis of nine cases of COVID-19 that provides proof of active virus replication in tissues of the upper respiratory tract. Pharyngeal virus shedding was very high during the first week of symptoms, with a peak at 7.11 × 108 RNA copies per throat swab on day 4. Infectious virus was readily isolated from samples derived from the throat or lung, but not from stool samples—in spite of high concentrations of virus RNA. Blood and urine samples never yielded virus. Active replication in the throat was confirmed by the presence of viral replicative RNA intermediates in the throat samples. We consistently detected sequence-distinct virus populations in throat and lung samples from one patient, proving independent replication. The shedding of viral RNA from sputum outlasted the end of symptoms. Seroconversion occurred after 7 days in 50% of patients (and by day 14 in all patients), but was not followed by a rapid decline in viral load. COVID-19 can present as a mild illness of the upper respiratory tract. The confirmation of active virus replication in the upper respiratory tract has implications for the containment of COVID-19. Detailed virological analysis of nine cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) provides proof of active replication of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in tissues of the upper respiratory tract.

5,840 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The results support current proposals for the length of quarantine or active monitoring of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2, although longer monitoring periods might be justified in extreme cases.
Abstract: Using news reports and press releases from provinces, regions, and countries outside Wuhan, Hubei province, China, this analysis estimates the length of the incubation period of COVID-19 and its pu...

5,215 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: It is estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 25–69%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases’ presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home.
Abstract: We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and modeled COVID-19 infectiousness profiles from a separate sample of 77 infector–infectee transmission pairs. We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% (95% confidence interval, 30–57%) of secondary cases were infected during the index cases’ presymptomatic stage, in settings with substantial household clustering, active case finding and quarantine outside the home. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial presymptomatic transmission. Presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to account for a substantial proportion of COVID-19 cases.

3,943 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The serial respiratory viral load of SARS-CoV-2 in posterior oropharyngeal saliva samples from patients with COVID-19, and serum antibody responses from patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 are ascertained.
Abstract: Summary Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes severe community and nosocomial outbreaks. Comprehensive data for serial respiratory viral load and serum antibody responses from patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are not yet available. Nasopharyngeal and throat swabs are usually obtained for serial viral load monitoring of respiratory infections but gathering these specimens can cause discomfort for patients and put health-care workers at risk. We aimed to ascertain the serial respiratory viral load of SARS-CoV-2 in posterior oropharyngeal (deep throat) saliva samples from patients with COVID-19, and serum antibody responses. Methods We did a cohort study at two hospitals in Hong Kong. We included patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. We obtained samples of blood, urine, posterior oropharyngeal saliva, and rectal swabs. Serial viral load was ascertained by reverse transcriptase quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR). Antibody levels against the SARS-CoV-2 internal nucleoprotein (NP) and surface spike protein receptor binding domain (RBD) were measured using EIA. Whole-genome sequencing was done to identify possible mutations arising during infection. Findings Between Jan 22, 2020, and Feb 12, 2020, 30 patients were screened for inclusion, of whom 23 were included (median age 62 years [range 37–75]). The median viral load in posterior oropharyngeal saliva or other respiratory specimens at presentation was 5·2 log10 copies per mL (IQR 4·1–7·0). Salivary viral load was highest during the first week after symptom onset and subsequently declined with time (slope −0·15, 95% CI −0·19 to −0·11; R2=0·71). In one patient, viral RNA was detected 25 days after symptom onset. Older age was correlated with higher viral load (Spearman's ρ=0·48, 95% CI 0·074–0·75; p=0·020). For 16 patients with serum samples available 14 days or longer after symptom onset, rates of seropositivity were 94% for anti-NP IgG (n=15), 88% for anti-NP IgM (n=14), 100% for anti-RBD IgG (n=16), and 94% for anti-RBD IgM (n=15). Anti-SARS-CoV-2-NP or anti-SARS-CoV-2-RBD IgG levels correlated with virus neutralisation titre (R2>0·9). No genome mutations were detected on serial samples. Interpretation Posterior oropharyngeal saliva samples are a non-invasive specimen more acceptable to patients and health-care workers. Unlike severe acute respiratory syndrome, patients with COVID-19 had the highest viral load near presentation, which could account for the fast-spreading nature of this epidemic. This finding emphasises the importance of stringent infection control and early use of potent antiviral agents, alone or in combination, for high-risk individuals. Serological assay can complement RT-qPCR for diagnosis. Funding Richard and Carol Yu, May Tam Mak Mei Yin, The Shaw Foundation Hong Kong, Michael Tong, Marina Lee, Government Consultancy Service, and Sanming Project of Medicine.

2,778 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In a series of 51 patients with chest CT and real-time polymerase chain reaction assay (RT-PCR) performed within 3 days, the sensitivity of CT for 2019 novel coronavirus infection was 98% and that ...
Abstract: In a series of 51 patients with chest CT and real-time polymerase chain reaction assay (RT-PCR) performed within 3 days, the sensitivity of CT for 2019 novel coronavirus infection was 98% and that ...

2,714 citations

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