The abuse of probability in political analysis: the robinson crusoe fallacy
01 Mar 1989-American Political Science Review (Cambridge University Press)-Vol. 83, Iss: 1, pp 77-91
TL;DR: The Robinson Crusoe Fallacy as discussed by the authors is a common error in decision theory, and it stems from inappropriate use of the concept of probability in regulation, international economic sanctions, and organization theory.
Abstract: The decision to stay at home when you have no umbrella and rain is probable is an appropriate problem for decision theory. The decision to speed when you are in a hurry and the police might be patrolling is a game against a rational opponent. Treating the latter like a problem for decision theory is what I call the Robinson Crusoe fallacy. It is quite common and leads to incorrect conclusions. If the game has no pure strategy equilibrium, changes in the payoffs to a player affect not that player's strategy but the strategy of the opponent in equilibrium. For example, modifying the size of the penalty does not affect the frequency of crime commitment at equilibrium, but rather the frequency of law enforcement. I provide examples of this fallacy in regulation, international economic sanctions, and organization theory and argue that it stems from inappropriate use of the concept of probability.
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References
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TL;DR: In fact, some common properties are shared by practically all legislation, and these properties form the subject matter of this essay as discussed by the authors, which is the basis for this essay. But, in spite of such diversity, some commonsense properties are not shared.
Abstract: Since the turn of the twentieth century, legislation in Western countries has expanded rapidly to reverse the brief dominance of laissez faire during the nineteenth century. The state no longer merely protects against violations of person and property through murder, rape, or burglary but also restricts ‘discrimination’ against certain minorities, collusive business arrangements, ‘jaywalking’, travel, the materials used in construction, and thousands of other activities. The activities restricted not only are numerous but also range widely, affecting persons in very different pursuits and of diverse social backgrounds, education levels, ages, races, etc. Moreover, the likelihood that an offender will be discovered and convicted and the nature and extent of punishments differ greatly from person to person and activity to activity. Yet, in spite of such diversity, some common properties are shared by practically all legislation, and these properties form the subject matter of this essay.
9,613 citations
Book•
01 May 2014
TL;DR: A collection of classic essays written throughout Popper's illustrious career, expounding and defending his 'fallibilist' theory of knowledge and scientific discovery.
Abstract: A collection of classic essays written throughout Popper's illustrious career, expounding and defending his 'fallibilist' theory of knowledge and scientific discovery. He applies his thinking not only to the philosophy of science, but also to a range of other concerns, from political theory to the mind-body problem.
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TL;DR: The concept of perfect equilibrium point has been introduced in order to exclude the possibility that disequilibrium behavior is prescribed on unreached subgames [Selten 1965 and 1973]. Unfortunately this definition of perfectness does not remove all difficulties which may arise with respect to unreached parts of the game.
Abstract: The concept of a perfect equilibrium point has been introduced in order to exclude the possibility that disequilibrium behavior is prescribed on unreached subgames [Selten 1965 and 1973]. Unfortunately this definition of perfectness does not remove all difficulties which may arise with respect to unreached parts of the game. It is necessary to reexamine the problem of defining a satisfactory non-cooperative equilibrium concept for games in extensive form. Therefore a new concept of a perfect equilibrium point will be introduced in this paper2).
3,220 citations