Posted Content•
The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets:Too Much of a Good Thing?
01 Jan 2008-
TL;DR: In this paper, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission makes available the positions held by index funds and other large traders in their Commitment of Traders reports, and the results suggest that after an initial surge from early 2004 through mid-2005, index fund positions have stabilized as a percent of total open interest.
Abstract: The objective of this report is to re-visit the “adequacy of speculation” debate in agricultural futures markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission makes available the positions held by index funds and other large traders in their Commitment of Traders reports. The results suggest that after an initial surge from early 2004 through mid-2005, index fund positions have stabilized as a percent of total open interest. Traditional speculative measures do not show any material changes or shifts over the sample period. In most markets, the increase in long speculative positions was equaled or surpassed by an increase in short hedging. So, even after adjusting speculative indices for index fund positions, values are within the historical ranges reported in prior research. One implication is that long-only index funds may be beneficial in markets traditionally dominated by short hedging. Attempts to curb speculation through regulatory means should be weighed carefully against the potential benefits provided by this class of speculators.
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TL;DR: The authors assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets, finding evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil, corn, and wheat markets after the fall of 2006.
485 citations
TL;DR: This article used a non-public dataset of individual trader positions in 17 U.S. commodity futures markets to provide novel evidence on those markets' financialization in the past decade and found that the correlation between the rates of return on commodities and equities rises with greater participation by speculators generally, hedge funds especially, and funds that trade in both equity and commodity markets in particular.
Abstract: We use a unique, non-public dataset of individual trader positions in 17 U.S. commodity futures markets to provide novel evidence on those markets’ financialization in the past decade. We then show that the correlation between the rates of return on commodities and equities rises amid greater participation by speculators generally, hedge funds especially, and funds that trade in both equity and commodity markets in particular. We find no such relationship for other kinds of commodity futures traders. The predictive power of hedge fund positions is weaker in periods of generalized financial market stress. Our results indicate that who trades helps predict the joint distribution of commodity and equity returns.
444 citations
TL;DR: The lack of a direct empirical link between index fund trading and commodity futures prices casts considerable doubt on the belief that index funds fueled a price bubble as mentioned in this paper. But, the data and methods used in these studies are subject to criticisms that limit the confidence one can place in their results.
Abstract: Some market participants and policy-makers believe that index fund investment was a major driver of the 2007-2008 spike in commodity futures prices. One group of empirical studies does find evidence that commodity index investment had an impact on the level of futures prices. However, the data and methods used in these studies are subject to criticisms that limit the confidence one can place in their results. Moreover, another group of studies provides no systematic evidence of a relationship between positions of index funds and the level of commodity futures prices. The lack of a direct empirical link between index fund trading and commodity futures prices casts considerable doubt on the belief that index funds fueled a price bubble. Copyright 2011, Oxford University Press.
434 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: This article found that the existing evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003, and there is strong evidence that the co-movement between spot and futures prices reflects common economic fundamentals rather than the financialization of oil futures markets.
Abstract: A popular view is that the surge in the price of oil during 2003-08 cannot be explained by economic fundamentals, but was caused by the increased financialization of oil futures markets, which in turn allowed speculation to become a major determinant of the spot price of oil. This interpretation has been driving policy efforts to regulate oil futures markets. This survey reviews the evidence supporting this view. We identify six strands in the literature corresponding to different empirical methodologies and discuss to what extent each approach sheds light on the role of speculation. We find that the existing evidence is not supportive of an important role of speculation in driving the spot price of oil after 2003. Instead, there is strong evidence that the co-movement between spot and futures prices reflects common economic fundamentals rather than the financialization of oil futures markets.
391 citations
TL;DR: The authors show that speculative buying by index funds in commodity futures and over-the-counter derivatives markets created a "bubble" in commodity prices, with the result that prices, and crude oil prices, in particular, far exceeded fundamental values at the peak.
Abstract: It is commonly asserted that speculative buying by index funds in commodity futures and over-the–counter derivatives markets created a “bubble“ in commodity prices, with the result that prices, and crude oil prices, in particular, far exceeded fundamental values at the peak. The purpose of this paper is to show that the bubble argument simply does not withstand close scrutiny. Four main points are explored. First, the arguments of bubble proponents are conceptually flawed and reflect fundamental and basic misunderstandings of how commodity futures markets actually work. Second, a number of facts about the situation in commodity markets are inconsistent with the existence of a substantial bubble in commodity prices. Third, available statistical evidence does not indicate that positions for any group in commodity futures markets, including long-only index funds, consistently lead futures price changes. Fourth, there is a historical pattern of attacks upon speculation during periods of extreme market volatility.
347 citations
References
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Book•
01 Jan 1989
TL;DR: The Black-Scholes analysis of stock option prices was used in this paper to model the behavior of stock prices and the Yield Curve of stock options, as well as the Black's model for option pricing.
Abstract: Contents: Introduction. Futures Markets and the Use of Futures for Hedging. Forward and Futures Prices. Interest Rate Futures. Swaps. Options Markets. Properties of Stock Option Prices. Trading Strategies Involving Options. Introduction to Binomial Trees. Model of the Behavior of Stock Prices. The Black-Scholes Analysis. Options on Stock Indices, Currencies, and Futures Contracts. General Approach to Pricing Derivatives. The Management of Market Risk. Numerical Procedures. Interest Rate Derivatives and the Use of Black's Model. Interest Rate Derivatives and Models of the Yield Curve. Exotic Options. Alternatives to Black-Scholes for Option Pricing. Credit Risk and Regulatory Capital. Review of Key Concepts.
6,873 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a simple overlapping generations model of an asset market in which irrational noise traders with erroneous stochastic beliefs both affect prices and earn higher expected returns.
Abstract: We present a simple overlapping generations model of an asset market in which irrational noise traders with erroneous stochastic beliefs both affect prices and earn higher expected returns. The unpredictability of noise traders' beliefs creates a risk in the price of the asset that deters rational arbitrageurs from aggressively betting against them. As a result, prices can diverge significantly from fundamental values even in the absence of fundamental risk. Moreover, bearing a disproportionate amount of risk that they themselves create enables noise traders to earn a higher expected return than rational investors do. The model sheds light on a number of financial anomalies, including the excess volatility of asset prices, the mean reversion of stock returns, the underpricing of closed-end mutual funds, and the Mehra-Prescott equity premium puzzle.
5,703 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that some investors are not fully rational and their demand for risky assets is affected by their beliefs or sentiments that are not completely justified by fundamental news.
Abstract: This paper reviews an alternative to the efficient markets approach that we and others have recently pursued. Our approach rests on two assumptions. First, some investors are not fully rational and their demand for risky assets is affected by their beliefs or sentiments that are not fully justified by fundamental news. Second, arbitrage - defined as trading by fully rational investors not subject to such sentiment - is risky and therefore limited. The two assumption together imply that changes in investors sentiment are not fully countered by arbitrageurs and so affect security returns. We argue that this approach to financial markets is in many ways superior to the efficient markets paradigm. Our case for the noise trader approach is threefold. First, theoretical models with limited arbitrage are both tractable and more plausible than models with perfect arbitrage. The efficient markets hypithesis obtains only as an extreme case of perfect riskless arbitrage that unlikely to apply in practice. Second, the investors sentiment/ limited arbitrage approach yields a more accurate description of financial markets than the efficient markets paradigm. The approach not only explains the available anomalies, but also readly explains board features of financial markets such as trading volume and actual investment strategies. Third, and most importantly, this approach yields new and testable implications about asset prices, some of which have been proved to be consistent with the data. It is absolutely not true that introducing a degree of irrationality of some investors into models of financial markets "eliminates all discipline and can explain anything".
1,513 citations
TL;DR: The authors examines the factors responsible for changes in crude oil prices and concludes that although scarcity rent made a negligible contribution to the price of oil in 1997, it could now begin to play a role.
Abstract: This paper examines the factors responsible for changes in crude oil prices. The paper reviews the statistical behavior of oil prices, relates this to the predictions of theory, and looks in detail at key features of petroleum demand and supply. Topics discussed include the role of commodity speculation, OPEC, and resource depletion. The paper concludes that although scarcity rent made a negligible contribution to the price of oil in 1997, it could now begin to play a role.
1,120 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: This paper constructed an equally-weighted index of commodity futures monthly returns over the period between July of 1959 and December of 2004 in order to study simple properties of commodities as an asset class.
Abstract: We construct an equally-weighted index of commodity futures monthly returns over the period between July of 1959 and December of 2004 in order to study simple properties of commodity futures as an asset class. Fully-collateralized commodity futures have historically offered the same return and Sharpe ratio as equities. While the risk premium on commodity futures is essentially the same as equities, commodity futures returns are negatively correlated with equity returns and bond returns. The negative correlation between commodity futures and the other asset classes is due, in significant part, to different behavior over the business cycle. In addition, commodity futures are positively correlated with inflation, unexpected inflation, and changes in expected inflation.
930 citations