The Applicability of Bipartite Graph Model for Thunderstorms Forecast over Kolkata
TL;DR: In this article, a single spectrum bipartite graph connectivity model was developed to forecast thunderstorms over Kolkata during the premonsoon season (April-May) and the statistical distribution of normal probability was observed for temperature, relative humidity, convective available potential energy (CAPE), and convective inhibition energy (CIN) to quantify the threshold values of the parameters for the prevalence of thunderstorms.
Abstract: Single Spectrum Bipartite Graph (SSBG) model is developed to forecast thunderstorms over Kolkata during the premonsoon season (April-May). The statistical distribution of normal probability is observed for temperature, relative humidity, convective available potential energy (CAPE), and convective inhibition energy (CIN) to quantify the threshold values of the parameters for the prevalence of thunderstorms. Method of conditional probability is implemented to ascertain the possibilities of the occurrence of thunderstorms within the ranges of the threshold values. The single spectrum bipartite graph connectivity model developed in this study consists of two sets of vertices; one set includes two time vertices (00UTC, 12UTC) and the other includes four meteorological parameters: temperature, relative humidity, CAPE, and CIN. Three distinct ranges of maximal eigen values are obtained for the three categories of thunderstorms. Maximal eigenvalues for severe, ordinary, and no thunderstorm events are observed to be , , and , respectively. The ranges of the threshold values obtained using ten year data (1997–2006) are considered as the reference range and the result is validated with the IMD (India Meteorological Department) observation, Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) Products, and satellite images of 2007. The result reveals that the model provides 12- to 6-hour forecast (nowcasting) of thunderstorms with 96% to 98% accuracy.
Citations
More filters
TL;DR: In this paper, a new thermodynamic index over a tropical station Kolkata during pre-monsoon season of 2016-2019 has been proposed to distinguish convective events day using cloud base height (CBH) and equivalent potential temperature (θe).
12 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors identify the physical characteristics of the tropical and mid-latitude thunderstorms is the main objective of the present study, which reveals that the average storm relative helicity (SRH) and the lapse rate between 700 and 500 hPa level is much higher over Denver compared to Kolkata during thunderstorm days.
Abstract: Thunderstorms prevailing over tropics and midlatitudes depict dissimilar features relating to the thermodynamic and dynamic aspects. The identification of the physical characteristics of the tropical and midlatitude thunderstorms is the main objective of the present study. The stations Kolkata (22.6°N, 88.4°E) and Denver (39.47°N, 104.32°W) are selected from the tropics and midlatitudes for the comparative analyses. The study reveals that the average storm relative helicity (SRH) and the lapse rate between 700 and 500 hPa level is much higher over Denver compared to Kolkata during thunderstorm days. The study further reveals that the surface to mid troposphere (upto 500 hPa) become drier (∼2 times) over Denver than Kolkata prior to the occurrence of thunderstorms while the upper tropospheric (300–100 hPa) humidity remains comparable for both the locations.
12 citations
Cites methods from "The Applicability of Bipartite Grap..."
...Bipartite Graph Model is developed for thunderstorm forecast over Kolkata and the nowcasting of severe thunderstorms is made using graph spectral distance and entropy estimation (Chaudhuri and Middey, 2009, 2011)....
[...]
TL;DR: In this paper, the meta-heuristic ant colony optimization (ACO) technique is implemented to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall for the next day over Kolkata (22.6°N, 88.4°E), India.
Abstract: Forecasting summer monsoon rainfall with precision becomes crucial for the farmers to plan for harvesting in a country like India where the national economy is mostly based on regional agriculture. The forecast of monsoon rainfall based on artificial neural network is a well-researched problem. In the present study, the meta-heuristic ant colony optimization (ACO) technique is implemented to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall for the next day over Kolkata (22.6°N, 88.4°E), India. The ACO technique belongs to swarm intelligence and simulates the decision-making processes of ant colony similar to other adaptive learning techniques. ACO technique takes inspiration from the foraging behaviour of some ant species. The ants deposit pheromone on the ground in order to mark a favourable path that should be followed by other members of the colony. A range of rainfall amount replicating the pheromone concentration is evaluated during the summer monsoon season. The maximum amount of rainfall during summer monsoon season (June—September) is observed to be within the range of 7.5–35 mm during the period from 1998 to 2007, which is in the range 4 category set by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The result reveals that the accuracy in forecasting the amount of rainfall for the next day during the summer monsoon season using ACO technique is 95 % where as the forecast accuracy is 83 % with Markov chain model (MCM). The forecast through ACO and MCM are compared with other existing models and validated with IMD observations from 2008 to 2012.
11 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a multi-layer perceptron MLP model is developed to forecast the lightning flash rate and peak wind gusts which accompany severe thunderstorms in Kolkata.
Abstract: The momentous weather hazards during the pre-monsoon season April–May over Kolkata 22° 32′ N, 88° 20′ E, India, is mostly due to lightning flashes and surface wind gusts associated with severe thunderstorms. A multi-layer perceptron MLP model is developed to forecast the lightning flash rate and peak wind gusts which accompany severe thunderstorms. Meteorological parameters derived from radiosonde weather observations from 1998 to 2009 are taken as input whereas lightning data from the Lightning Imaging Sensor LIS and wind gusts from a ground-based observatory are taken as the target output parameters. The skill of the MLP model is compared with the multiple linear regression MLR analysis method, and it is observed that the MLP model provides better and more accurate forecasts than the MLR analysis method. The results also reveal that the forecast accuracy is more for surface wind gusts than for the lightning flash rate, both during training and validation of the model. The MLP model forecast is validated with the India Meteorological Department IMD weather observations as well as Doppler weather radar and satellite imagery of 2008 and 2009 thunderstorms.
8 citations
Cites methods from "The Applicability of Bipartite Grap..."
...…in forecasting high-frequency and spatially small-scale weather phenomena through conventional methods (Gardner and Dorling 1998; Ghosh, Sen, and De 1999; Abraham, Philip, and Joseph 2001; Marzban and Witt 2001; Chaudhuri 2006, 2007, 2008a, 2008b; Chaudhuri and Middey 2009; Chaudhuri 2010a, 2010b)....
[...]
01 Mar 2017
5 citations
References
More filters
TL;DR: In this article, statistical methods in the Atmospheric Sciences are used to estimate the probability of a given event to be a hurricane or tropical cyclone, and the probability is determined by statistical methods.
Abstract: (2007). Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Journal of the American Statistical Association: Vol. 102, No. 477, pp. 380-380.
7,052 citations
"The Applicability of Bipartite Grap..." refers methods in this paper
...The normal probability distribution function [23] is used as the statistical tool to identify the most probable range of values of the selected input parameters (T , Rh, CAPE, CIN) for the occurrence of thunderstorms (Table 1)....
[...]
Book•
03 Dec 1996TL;DR: Eigenvalues and the Laplacian of a graph Isoperimetric problems Diameters and eigenvalues Paths, flows, and routing Eigen values and quasi-randomness
Abstract: Eigenvalues and the Laplacian of a graph Isoperimetric problems Diameters and eigenvalues Paths, flows, and routing Eigenvalues and quasi-randomness Expanders and explicit constructions Eigenvalues of symmetrical graphs Eigenvalues of subgraphs with boundary conditions Harnack inequalities Heat kernels Sobolev inequalities Advanced techniques for random walks on graphs Bibliography Index.
6,948 citations
"The Applicability of Bipartite Grap..." refers background in this paper
...Some eigenvalues have been referred to as the algebraic connection patterns of a graph [25]....
[...]
Book•
[...]
01 May 1997
TL;DR: Gaph Teory Fourth Edition is standard textbook of modern graph theory which covers the core material of the subject with concise yet reliably complete proofs, while offering glimpses of more advanced methods in each chapter by one or two deeper results.
Abstract: Gaph Teory Fourth Edition Th is standard textbook of modern graph theory, now in its fourth edition, combines the authority of a classic with the engaging freshness of style that is the hallmark of active mathematics. It covers the core material of the subject with concise yet reliably complete proofs, while offering glimpses of more advanced methods in each fi eld by one or two deeper results, again with proofs given in full detail.
6,255 citations
"The Applicability of Bipartite Grap..." refers background in this paper
...There are different lemmas and propositions of spectral graph theory to study the variation characterization of Eigen values, their bounds, and orientations [26]....
[...]
TL;DR: This paper presents a general introduction and discussion of recent applications of the multilayer perceptron, one type of artificial neural network, in the atmospheric sciences.
2,389 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the preconvective environment on thunderstorm days in Switzerland north of the Alps has been investigated during a 5-yr period (1985-89) using thermodynamic and kinematic parameters calculated from the radiosounding in Payerne (started at 0000 and 1200 UTC) were used to characterize the initiation of convection.
Abstract: The preconvective environment on thunderstorm days in Switzerland north of the Alps has been investigated during a 5-yr period (1985–89). Thermodynamic and kinematic parameters calculated from the radiosounding in Payerne (started at 0000 and 1200 UTC) were used to characterize the initiation of convection. The best parameters were evaluated by using three methods: 1) skill scores, 2) probability distributions, and 3) mean temperature soundings and hodographs. For the decision whether a thunderstorm day was expected or not, the best results were obtained at 0000 UTC with the original Showalter index and at 1200 UTC with the SWEAT index. In addition, to decide whether an isolated or widespread thunderstorm day was expected, the most successful parameter was the modified CAPECCL. Furthermore, the best thermodynamic and kinematic parameters were combined to create new thunderstorm indices, similar to the calculations of the SWEAT index in the United States. The new thunderstorm indices especially de...
130 citations