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The causal effect of education on earnings
TL;DR: This paper surveys the recent literature on the causal relationship between education and earnings and concludes that the average (or average marginal) return to education is not much below the estimate that emerges from a standard human capital earnings function fit by OLS.
Abstract: This paper surveys the recent literature on the causal relationship between education and earnings. I focus on four areas of work: theoretical and econometric advances in modelling the causal effect of education in the presence of heterogeneous returns to schooling; recent studies that use institutional aspects of the education system to form instrumental variables estimates of the return to schooling; recent studies of the earnings and schooling of twins; and recent attempts to explicitly model sources of heterogeneity in the returns to education. Consistent with earlier surveys of the literature, I conclude that the average (or average marginal) return to education is not much below the estimate that emerges from a standard human capital earnings function fit by OLS. Evidence from the latest studies of identical twins suggests a small upward "ability" bias -- on the order of 10%. A consistent finding among studies using instrumental variables based on institutional changes in the education system is that the estimated returns to schooling are 20-40% above the corresponding OLS estimates. Part of the explanation for this finding may be that marginal returns to schooling for certain subgroups -- particularly relatively disadvantaged groups with low education outcomes -- are higher than the average marginal returns to education in the population as a whole.
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TL;DR: In this paper, an approach to Bayesian semiparametric regression in multiple equation models which can be used to carry out inference in seemingly unrelated regressions or simultaneous equations models with nonparametric components is presented.
Abstract: This paper outlines an approach to Bayesian semiparametric regression in multiple equation models which can be used to carry out inference in seemingly unrelated regressions or simultaneous equations models with nonparametric components. The approach treats the points on each nonparametric regression line as unknown parameters and uses a prior on the degree of smoothness of each line to ensure valid posterior inference despite the fact that the number of parameters is greater than the number of observations. We develop an empirical Bayesian approach that allows us to estimate the prior smoothing hyperparameters from the data. An advantage of our semiparametric model is that it is written as a seemingly unrelated regressions model with independent normal-Wishart prior. Since this model is a common one, textbook results for posterior inference, model comparison, prediction and posterior computation are immediately available. We use this model in an application involving a two-equation structural model drawn from the labour and returns to schooling literatures.
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TL;DR: In this article, an instrumental variable approach with distance to local advisory office and a policy change chosen as instruments for extension participation was applied to investigate the impact of agricultural extension on farm income.
Abstract: Agricultural extension is an important policy instrument utilized to diffuse knowledge and increase profitability among farmers. However, analyses on impact are subject to endogeneity concerns, causing multiple biases. Failure to combat endogeneity can lead to false inferences on impact. This article addresses this issue by applying an instrumental variable approach with distance to local advisory office and a policy change chosen as instruments for extension participation. The results show that participation significantly increased farm income and that OLS estimates underestimated the impact. Therefore, a superior estimate of impact is achieved which can be leveraged to better support accurate policy making.
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TL;DR: The first-ever field experiment involving the random provision of free computers to low-income community college students for home use was conducted by as discussed by the authors, who found that minority students receiving free computers achieved better educational outcomes than the control group that did not receive free computers.
31 citations
TL;DR: This paper explored whether an intergenerational relationship exists between the reading and mathematics test scores, taken at age 7, of a cohort of individuals born in 1958 and the equivalent test scores of their offspring measured in 1991.
Abstract: In this article, we explore whether an intergenerational relationship exists between the reading and mathematics test scores, taken at age 7, of a cohort of individuals born in 1958 and the equivalent test scores of their offspring measured in 1991. Our results suggest that how the parent performs in reading and mathematics during their childhood is positively related to the corresponding test scores of their offspring as measured at a similar age. The results further suggest that the effect of upbringing is mainly responsible for the intergenerational relationship in literacy, although genetic effects seem more relevant with respect to numeracy.
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TL;DR: This article applied a semi-parametric latent variable model to estimate selection and sorting effects on the evolution of private returns to schooling for college graduates during China's reform between 1988 and 2002, finding that there were substantial sorting gains under the traditional system, but they have decreased drastically and are negligible in the most recent data.
Abstract: We apply a semi-parametric latent variable model to estimate selection and sorting effects on the evolution of private returns to schooling for college graduates during China's reform between 1988 and 2002. We find that there were substantial sorting gains under the traditional system, but they have decreased drastically and are negligible in the most recent data. We take this as evidence of growing influence of private financial constraints on decisions to attend college as tuition costs have risen and the relative importance of government subsidies has declined. The main policy implication of our results is that labor and education reform without concomitant capital market reform and government support for the financially disadvantaged exacerbates increases in inequality inherent in elimination of the traditional "wage-grid."
31 citations