Posted Content•
The causal effect of education on earnings
TL;DR: This paper surveys the recent literature on the causal relationship between education and earnings and concludes that the average (or average marginal) return to education is not much below the estimate that emerges from a standard human capital earnings function fit by OLS.
Abstract: This paper surveys the recent literature on the causal relationship between education and earnings. I focus on four areas of work: theoretical and econometric advances in modelling the causal effect of education in the presence of heterogeneous returns to schooling; recent studies that use institutional aspects of the education system to form instrumental variables estimates of the return to schooling; recent studies of the earnings and schooling of twins; and recent attempts to explicitly model sources of heterogeneity in the returns to education. Consistent with earlier surveys of the literature, I conclude that the average (or average marginal) return to education is not much below the estimate that emerges from a standard human capital earnings function fit by OLS. Evidence from the latest studies of identical twins suggests a small upward "ability" bias -- on the order of 10%. A consistent finding among studies using instrumental variables based on institutional changes in the education system is that the estimated returns to schooling are 20-40% above the corresponding OLS estimates. Part of the explanation for this finding may be that marginal returns to schooling for certain subgroups -- particularly relatively disadvantaged groups with low education outcomes -- are higher than the average marginal returns to education in the population as a whole.
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Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this paper, a modelisation of rendements de l'education visant a enrichir le modele de Mincer [1974] is proposed, in which les revenus ne sont fonction que du niveau d’education and de l’experience professionnelle.
Abstract: Dans cet article, nous proposons une modelisation des rendements de l’education visant a enrichir le modele de Mincer [1974] selon lequel les revenus ne sont fonction que du niveau d’education et de l’experience professionnelle Nous considerons d’autres determinants des revenus dont le type d’education (public ou prive), tout en corrigeant le biais de selection sur le marche du travail et le biais d’endogeneite du niveau d’etudes Le taux de rendement de l’education se revele alors non significatif a Madagascar, que le marche du travail soit suppose concurrentiel ou segmente
3 citations
30 Nov 2004
TL;DR: In this article, the authors exploit a new source of variation in Head Start funding to identify the program's long-term effects, and show that discontinuity in head start funding and participation are associated with discontinuities in educational attainment.
Abstract: This paper exploits a new source of variation in Head Start funding to identify the program's long-term effects. In 1965 the Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO) provided technical assistance to the 300 poorest counties in the U.S. to develop Head Start funding proposals, but did not provide similar assistance to other counties. We show that the result is a substantial difference in Head Start funding and participation rates in those counties just above and below OEO's poverty-rate cutoff for technical assistance, differences that seem to have persisted through at least the 1970’s. This discontinuity in Head Start funding and participation are associated with discontinuities in educational attainment.
3 citations
18 Aug 2006
TL;DR: For instance, a taxa internas de retorno (TIR) estimada by Heckman, Lochner e Todd (2006) and Heckman et al. as discussed by the authors has been used as a model of taxa of retorno for education in Brazil.
Abstract: Na literatura empirica, varias estimativas de taxas de retorno para educacao tem sido reportadas, baseadas no modelo de Mincer (1958, 1974) No entanto, para que o coe
ciente dos anos de estudo, em uma regressao do logaritmo da renda contra educacao e experiencia, seja entendido como taxa de retorno diversas hipoteses devem ser validas Baseado em Heckman, Lochner e Todd (2006) e Heckman, Ichimura, Smith e Todd (1998), testamos algumas de tais hipoteses como: linearidade nos anos estudo e separabilidade entre educacao e experiencia (paralelismo) Para isso, utilizamos dados da PNAD (1992-2004) e do Censo (1970-2000) e lancamos mao de regressoes parametricas e nao-parametricas (regressao linear local); e acabamos rejeitando tanto linearidade como paralelismo Adicionalmente, relaxamos tais hipoteses e estimamos as taxas internas de retorno (TIRs), baseado em Becker (1993), para se medir a ordem do vies em relacao ao coe
ciente escolar do modelo original de MincerEsta medida permite mensurar o tamanho do erro em diversos estudos quando os mesmos utilizam o modelo de Mincer Obtemos vieses que chegaram a ordem de mais de 200%, como por exemplo a TIR em 2000 passando de 172% para todos niveis educacionais (retorno "minceriano") para 561% para mestrado/doutorado em relacao ao nivel superior, quando estimada nao parametricamente, relaxando linearidade e paralelismoAssim, diversos estudos no Brasil nao consideram tais hipoteses e, consequentemente suas estimativas estao erradas e mais ainda, a magnitude deste erro e grande, podendo levar a conclusoes distorcidas ou mal interpretadas Assim, provemos tambem novas estimativas das TIRs, as quais devem ser tomadas como referencia para a analise do comportamento dos agentes nos movimentos de demanda por educacao e oferta de mao-de-obra Por
m, corroboramos a evidencia da literatura que os retornos educacionais estao decaindo ao longo das decadas, com excecao do nivel superior que aponta para um crescimento nesta ultima decada, mas em magnitude menor das obtidas em diversos estudos recentes, que se baseiam no modelo de Mincer Palavras-Chave: retorno da educacao, regressao linear local Codigo JEL: I20, J24, C14
3 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this article, a latent index model is used to illustrate how the monotonicity assumption in this framework is violated if redshirting decisions are made in a setting of essential heterogeneity.
Abstract: A wide literature uses date of birth as an instrument to study the causal effects of educational attainment. This paper shows how parents delaying their children’s initial enrollment in kindergarten, a practice known as redshirting, can make estimates obtained through this identification framework all but impossible to interpret. A latent index model is used to illustrate how the monotonicity assumption in this framework is violated if redshirting decisions are made in a setting of essential heterogeneity. Empirical evidence is presented from the ECLS-K data set that favors this scenario; redshirting is common and heterogeneity in the treatment effect of educational attainment is likely a factor in parents’ redshirting decisions.
3 citations
01 Jan 2014
TL;DR: In this article, a non-invasive method was developed to detect and quantify contagion of semantic expression in massive online social networks, which can be used to measure the effect of an exogenous variable on an individual's expression and the influence of this change on the expression of others to whom that individual is socially connected.
Abstract: Does semantic expression spread online from person to person? And if so, what kinds of expression are most likely to spread? To address these questions, we developed a nonexperimental, noninvasive method to detect and quantify contagion of semantic expression in massive online social networks, which we review and discuss here. Using only observational data, the method avoids performing emotional experiments on users of online social networks, a research practice that recently became an object of criticism and concern. Our model combines geographic aggregation and instrumental variables regression to measure the effect of an exogenous variable on an individual's expression and the influence of this change on the expression of others to whom that individual is socially connected. In a previous work, we applied our method to the emotional content of posts generated by a large sample of users over a period of three years. Those results suggest that each post expressing a positive or negative emotion can cause friends to generate one to two additional posts expressing the same emotion, and it also inhibits their use of the opposite emotion. Here, we generalize our method so it can be applied to contexts different than emotional expression and to different forms of content generated by the users of online platforms. The method allows us to determine the usage of words in the same semantic category spread, and to estimate a signed relationship between different semantic categories, showing that an increase in the usage of one category alters the usage of another category in one's social contacts. Finally, it also allows us to estimate the total cumulative effect that a person has on all of her social contacts.
3 citations