The changing geography of recession : analyses of local unemployment time series
01 Jan 1994-Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers (Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.)-Vol. 19, Iss: 2, pp 142
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the impact of recession at the local and regional scale at the labour market area scale and found that parts of southern England appeared to suffer earlier and more severely than some other parts of Britain.
Abstract: Unemployment in Great Britain rose again in the early 1990s. By contrast with previous experience, parts of southern England appeared to suffer earlier and more severely than some other parts of Britain. This reversal of traditional norms fuelled renewed interest in the impact of recession at the local and regional scale. Unemployment dynamics are examined over the period from June 1978 to December 1991 at the local labour market area scale. An analysis of turning points in local unemployment series confirms key differences in the timing of entry into the two recessions experienced during this period. Cluster analysis classification techniques are used to identify the shapes of typical local unemployment cycles and these typical unemployment cycles are shown to display distinctive spatial expressions.
Citations
More filters
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared three control groups, made up of growth-oriented SMEs in the South East, slow growth firms in the Periphery, and slow-growth firms in South East.
Abstract: VAESSEN P. and KEEBLE, D. (1995) Growth-oriented SMEs in unfavourable regional environments, Reg. Studies 29, 489–505. In this paper the research focus is on ‘counterfactual’ cases of growth-oriented SMEs in peripheral regions of Britain (Scotland, Northern England, Wales and Merseyside). These firms are systematically compared to three control groups, made up of growth-oriented SMEs in the South East, slow-growth firms in the Periphery, and slow-growth firms in the South East. Apart from some performance measures such as profits and exports, three key characteristics of the firms are analysed. These are the extent of competition in the markets served, levels of innovation and R & D, and work force and labour market characteristics. The analysis is conducted for manufacturing firms and professional and business services separately. Firms of the research group stand out against the other firms in the sample as businesses with a very favourable R & D input–output ratio and greater propensity for providing a...
173 citations
TL;DR: This article investigated the impact of the 2008-2009 recession on unemployment in the sixty largest cities in Great Britain and found that the key determinant of changes in unemployment was the skills of the population, with highly skilled cities experiencing smaller increases.
Abstract: Lee N. Grim down South? The determinants of unemployment increases in British cities in the 2008–2009 recession, Regional Studies. This paper investigates the impact of the 2008–2009 recession on unemployment in the sixty largest cities in Great Britain. The key determinant of changes in unemployment was the skills of the population, with highly skilled cities experiencing smaller increases. Cities with employment in financial services or manufacturing sectors experienced larger increases in unemployment. Whether a city has a specialized or a diverse economy appears less important than the industries in which the city is specialized. The results highlight a problem as the largest unemployment increases were in cities seen as having least potential for future growth.
78 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used cluster analysis to construct homogeneous groups from 157 UK local markets, by means of commercial property returns, and used these clusters to derive efficient investment frontiers and compared with frontiers based on conventional heuristic groupings.
Abstract: Property portfolios are traditionally constructed by diversifying across geographical areas, property types, or a combination of both. In the United Kingdom it is normal practice to use regions rather than towns or local market areas as the geographical divisions. The authors use cluster analysis to construct homogeneous groups from 157 UK local markets, by means of commercial property returns. The results show strong property-type dimensions and only very broad geographical dimensions in the clusters. These clusters are found, in general, to have temporal stability with changes in cluster membership being explained by the changing economic geography of the United Kingdom. The cluster-derived groupings are used to derive efficient investment frontiers and are compared with frontiers based on conventional heuristic groupings. It is shown that strategies based on parsimonious cluster-based groupings, appropriate for smaller investors, generate results that are comparable with those of conventional groupings...
69 citations
Cites background from "The changing geography of recession..."
...Green et al (1994) note that the timing of entry into the 1979/80 recession (measured by unemployment change) varied by urban function as much as by geography....
[...]
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyse regional variations in the characteristics, performance, and growth of small and medium-sized manufacturing and business service enterprises in Britain, with particular reference to their impact on the "North-South divide" in British regional economic development.
Abstract: In this paper we analyse regional variations in the characteristics, performance, and growth of small and medium-sized manufacturing and business service enterprises in Britain, with particular reference to their impact on the ‘North—South divide’ in British regional economic development. Using a unique national survey of nearly 2000 smaller businesses, we identify regional differences in enterprise growth rates, market specialisation, innovation rates and research and development intensity, occupational structures, and labour-market problems. We also reveal differences in the frequency of use of government advisory agencies, and in the rating by firms in different regions of key competitive advantages and constraints on growth. These differences do not however conform to simple traditional stereotypes suggested by images of a declining North and a growing South. The implications of these findings both for understanding recent regional economic development in Britain and for policies such as those of loca...
55 citations
TL;DR: Specific sociocultural features of areas (including the political, economic, ethnic and religious characteristics of their population) may also be protective, and areas with similar adverse economic histories do not all have similarly high mortality rates.
Abstract: Objectives: To identify areas of Britain whose residents have relatively low age specific mortality, despite experiencing long-term economic adversity. Methods: Longitudinal, ecological study of all residents of Britain from 1971 to 2001. Results: 54 of Britain’s 641 parliamentary constituencies were identified as having been persistently economically disadvantaged in the period 1971–2001. Within this group, there was marked variation in age group specific mortality and in the age ranges with relatively high or low mortality. A systematic scoring process identified 18 constituencies as providing strong and consistent evidence of low mortality across a range of age groups, relative to the 54 constituencies as a whole. These 18 were labelled “resilient”. Among age groups >24 years, mortality rates in the resilient areas were significantly lower than in the other economically disadvantaged areas. For example, at ages 45–59 years, the average all cause mortality rate in the resilient constituencies was 607 per 100 000 population (95% CI 574 to 641) and 728 (670 to 787) in the non-resilient constituencies (p = 0.013). Conclusions: Areas with similar adverse economic histories do not all have similarly high mortality rates. It is unlikely that a single factor explains these results. Selective migration cannot be discounted as an explanation, but particular sociocultural features of areas (including the political, economic, ethnic and religious characteristics of their population) may also be protective.
37 citations
References
More filters
01 Mar 1967
137 citations
"The changing geography of recession..." refers methods in this paper
...Economic geographers and regional scientists have attempted to identify the existence of timing differences and sensitivity of responses of local and regional economic cycles through the application of models proposed by Thirlwall (1966) and (particularly) Brechling (1967). From the 1960s to the early 1980s a number of studies in regional economics and quantitative economic geography of the dynamics of local unemployment series were undertaken in Britain, North America and Australia....
[...]
Book•
01 Jan 1986TL;DR: In this paper, a theory of regional adjustment is presented, and a model of regional production and capital is proposed to deal with the adjustment problem in the context of local labour markets.
Abstract: Preface Part 1: A Theory of Regional Adjustment 1. The Adjustment Problem 2. Contemporary Regional Economic Structure 3. An Adjustment Model of Regional Production Part 2: Local Employment Profiles and Labour Demand 4. Fluctuations and Rigidities in Local Labour Markets 5. Regional Demand for Labour 6. The Risks of Local Adjustment Part 3: Regional Wages and Prices 7. Does Inflations Vary Between Cities? 8. Components of Local Inflation 9. Regional Wage Indexation Part 4: Interregional Labour Migration 10. Dynamics of Inter-State Labour Migration 11. Migration and Capital 12. Labour Migration and Uncertainty Part 5: Regional Capital Dynamics 13. Regional Capital Theory 14. Dynamics of Regional Investment 15. Capital, Labour, and Regional Dynamics
68 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, Taylor et al. explored the reasons for spatial variations in cyclical and non-cyclical unemployment and concluded that cyclical variations in the unemployment rate have been severely exacerbated by national recessions and that there is considerable scope for public policy in rectifying the persistent structural weaknesses in certain groups of Travel-to-Work Areas in North West England.
Abstract: Taylor J. and Bradley S. (1983) Spatial variations in the unemployment rate: a case study of North West England, Reg. Studies 17, 113–124. This paper extends earlier work on the categorization of unemployment by exploring the reasons for spatial variations in cyclical unemployment and non-cyclical unemployment. Regression analysis is used to divide total unemployment into a cyclical category and a non-cyclical category in twenty-eight Travel-to-Work Areas in North West England during 1969–80. The spatial patterns of these two categories of unemployment are examined and an attemptis made to explain them. The main conclusions are: that spatial variations in the unemployment rate have been severely exacerbated by national recessions; that the spatial patterns of cyclical unemployment and non-cyclical unemployment are not random; and that there is considerable scope for public policy in rectifying the persistent structural weaknesses in certain groups of Travel-to-Work Areas in the NW region.
33 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined direct and indirect relationships between housing market activity and consumer durables spending and concluded that this is further evidence of the important role of the housing market in the U.K. macroeconomy.
Abstract: Recent British experience suggests important relationships between housing market activity and consumer durables spending. This paper examines direct and indirect relationships; the former through the complementarity of housing and durable goods, the latter through housing equity withdrawal effects. Aggregate U.K. time-series econometric evidence is presented that finds significant evidence for both effects. An estimate of the elasticity of durables spending with respect to house prices of 0.4 is obtained for 1988. The authors conclude that this is further evidence of the important role of the housing market in the U.K. macroeconomy. Copyright 1992 by Scottish Economic Society.
23 citations
"The changing geography of recession..." refers background in this paper
...region (after East Anglia) to experience an upturn in unemployment in the second recession after a trough in December 1989, as the bubble of rising house prices, cheap credit and service expansion burst (Carruth and Henley 1992)....
[...]
Book•
01 Jan 1991
TL;DR: The issue of regional inequality in the UK has gradually come to the forefront over the last decade, the north-south divide being the most obvious example of the economic and other disparities which are seemingly governed by geography as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The issue of regional inequality in the UK has gradually come to the forefront over the last decade, the north-south divide being the most obvious example of the economic and other disparities which are seemingly governed by geography. These not only create discord within society as a whole, but cause instability in the UK economy, seriously affecting its status and competitiveness in an increasingly globalized market. This book constitutes a collection of authoritative articles, based on papers presented at the National Economic Development Office Policy Seminar held in March 1990. Each examines in detail the causes and consequences of regional inequality in different areas of activity, and suggests how the attendant problems can be tackled and inequalities reduced. Topics covered include: employment and earnings; education; housing; regional policy; migration; transport; industry and trade unions.
14 citations
"The changing geography of recession..." refers background in this paper
...paradoxical that, as mass unemployment once again became established in the British economy, academic interest in local unemployment dynamics diminished, perhaps as a result of the gradual erosion of regional policy during the 1980s (Townsend 1987; Chisholm 1987; Balchin 1990; Bowen and Mayhew 1991) and concerns about the statistical crudity and lack of theoretical foundation of some previous studies (Clark 1980)....
[...]