The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950–1985
01 Jun 1997-International Studies Quarterly (Blackwell Publishers, Inc.)-Vol. 41, Iss: 2, pp 267-293
TL;DR: This paper found that the pacific benefits of trade, both total and dyadic, have not been sufficiently appreciated and that democracies are relatively unlikely to become involved in militarized disputes with other democracies, while autocracies and democracies are prone to conflict with each other.
Abstract: The liberals believed that economic interdependence, as well as democracy, would reduce the incidence of interstate conflict. In this article, we test both their economic and their political prescriptions for peace, using pooled-regression analyses of politically relevant dyads for the Cold War era. We find that the pacific benefits of trade, both total and dyadic, have not been sufficiently appreciated. We also offer clear evidence that democracies are relatively unlikely to become involved in militarized disputes with other democracies, while autocracies and democracies are prone to conflict with each other. Since democratic dyads are more peaceful than autocratic dyads, it follows that democracies are more peaceful than autocratic states generally, ceteris paribus. Previous research at the national level of analysis, which led most to conclude that democracies have been no more peaceful than other states, did not consider that the incidence of conflict depends importantly upon the number of contiguous states, the character of their political regimes, and other factors. In addition, we find no evidence that states that have recently undergone regime changes, whether in the democratic or autocratic direction, are particularly conflict prone. Our results suggest the basis for a broader formulation of expected–utility theories of interstate conflict.
Citations
More filters
TL;DR: The authors argue that norms evolve in a three-stage "life cycle" of emergence, cascades, and internalization, and that each stage is governed by different motives, mechanisms, and behavioral logics.
Abstract: Norms have never been absent from the study of international politics, but the sweeping “ideational turn” in the 1980s and 1990s brought them back as a central theoretical concern in the field. Much theorizing about norms has focused on how they create social structure, standards of appropriateness, and stability in international politics. Recent empirical research on norms, in contrast, has examined their role in creating political change, but change processes have been less well-theorized. We induce from this research a variety of theoretical arguments and testable hypotheses about the role of norms in political change. We argue that norms evolve in a three-stage “life cycle” of emergence, “norm cascades,” and internalization, and that each stage is governed by different motives, mechanisms, and behavioral logics. We also highlight the rational and strategic nature of many social construction processes and argue that theoretical progress will only be made by placing attention on the connections between norms and rationality rather than by opposing the two.
5,761 citations
TL;DR: The authors argue that the tendency of students of international political order to emphasize efficient histories and consequential bases for action leads them to underestimate the significance of rule-and identity-based action and inefficient histories.
Abstract: The history of international political orders is written in terms of continuity and change in domestic and international political relations. As a step toward understanding such continuity and change, we explore some ideas drawn from an institutional perspective. An institutional perspective is characterized in terms of two grand issues that divide students of international relations and other organized systems. The first issue concerns the basic logic of action by which human behavior is shaped. On the one side are those who see action as driven by a logic of anticipated consequences and prior preferences. On the other side are those who see action as driven by a logic of appropriateness and a sense of identity. The second issue concerns the efficiency of history. On the one side are those who see history as efficient in the sense that it follows a course leading to a unique equilibrium dictated by exogenously determined interests, identities, and resources. On the other side are those who see history as inefficient in the sense that it follows a meandering, path-dependent course distinguished by multiple equilibria and endogenous transformations of interests, identities, and resources. We argue that the tendency of students of international political order to emphasize efficient histories and consequential bases for action leads them to underestimate the significance of rule- and identity-based action and inefficient histories. We illustrate such an institutional perspective by considering some features of the coevolution of politics and institutions, particularly the ways in which engagement in political activities affects the definition and elaboration of political identities and the development of competence in politics and the capabilities of political institutions.
2,078 citations
TL;DR: Monte Carlo analysis demonstrates that, for the types of hazards one often sees in substantive research, the polynomial approximation always outperforms time dummies and generally performs as well as splines or even more flexible autosmoothing procedures.
Abstract: Since Beck, Katz, and Tucker (1998), the standard method for modeling time dependence in binary data has been to incorporate time dummies or splined time in logistic regressions. Although we agree with the need for modeling time dependence, we demonstrate that time dummies can induce estimation problems due to separation. Splines do not suffer from these problems. However, the complexity of splines has led substantive researchers (1) to use knot values that may be inappropriate for their data and (2) to ignore any substantive discussion concerning temporal dependence. We propose a relatively simple alternative: including t, t 2 , and t 3 in the regression. This cubic polynomial approximation is trivial to implement—and, therefore, interpret—and it avoids problems such as quasi-complete separation. Monte Carlo analysis demonstrates that, for the types of hazards one often sees in substantive research, the polynomial approximation always outperforms time dummies and generally performs as well as splines or even more flexible autosmoothing procedures. Due to its simplicity, this method also accommodates nonproportional hazards in a straightforward way. We reanalyze Crowley and Skocpol (2001) using nonproportional hazards and find new empirical support for the historical-institutionalist perspective.
1,314 citations
TL;DR: Social constructivism addresses many of the same issues addressed by neo-utilitarianism, though from a different vantage and, therefore, with different effect as discussed by the authors. But it also concerns itself with issues that neo-UTilitarianism treats by assumption, discounts, ignores, or simply cannot apprehend within its characteristic ontology and/or epistemology.
Abstract: Social constructivism in international relations has come into its own during the past decade, not only as a metatheoretical critique of currently dominant neo-utilitarian approaches (neo-realism and neoliberal institutionalism) but increasingly in the form of detailed empirical findings and theoretical insights. Constructivism addresses many of the same issues addressed by neo-utilitarianism, though from a different vantage and, therefore, with different effect. It also concerns itself with issues that neo-utilitarianism treats by assumption, discounts, ignores, or simply cannot apprehend within its characteristic ontology and/or epistemology. The constructivist project has sought to open up the relatively narrow theoretical confines of conventional approaches—by pushing them back to problematize the interests and identities of actors; deeper to incorporate the intersubjective bases of social action and social order; and into the dimensions of space and time to establish international structure as contingent practice, constraining social action but also being (re)created and, therefore, potentially transformed by it.
1,233 citations
References
More filters
TL;DR: The Elements of Econometrics as mentioned in this paper is a textbook for upper-level undergraduate and master's degree courses and may usefully serve as a supplement for traditional Ph.D. courses in economics.
Abstract: This classic text has proven its worth in university classrooms and as a tool kit in research--selling over 40,000 copies in the United States and abroad in its first edition alone. Users have included undergraduate and graduate students of economics and business, and students and researchers in political science, sociology, and other fields where regression models and their extensions are relevant. The book has also served as a handy reference in the "real world" for people who need a clear and accurate explanation of techniques that are used in empirical research.Throughout the book the emphasis is on simplification whenever possible, assuming the readers know college algebra and basic calculus. Jan Kmenta explains all methods within the simplest framework, and generalizations are presented as logical extensions of simple cases. And while a relatively high degree of rigor is preserved, every conflict between rigor and clarity is resolved in favor of the latter. Apart from its clear exposition, the book's strength lies in emphasizing the basic ideas rather than just presenting formulas to learn and rules to apply.The book consists of two parts, which could be considered jointly or separately. Part one covers the basic elements of the theory of statistics and provides readers with a good understanding of the process of scientific generalization from incomplete information. Part two contains a thorough exposition of all basic econometric methods and includes some of the more recent developments in several areas.As a textbook, "Elements of Econometrics" is intended for upper-level undergraduate and master's degree courses and may usefully serve as a supplement for traditional Ph.D. courses in econometrics. Researchers in the social sciences will find it an invaluable reference tool.A solutions manual is also available for teachers who adopt the text for coursework.Jan Kmenta is Professor Emeritus of Economics and Statistics, University of Michigan.
3,838 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: The Penn World Table as discussed by the authors is a set of national accounts economic time series covering many countries and its expenditure entries are denominated in common set of prices in a common currency so that real quantity comparisons can be made, both between countries and over time.
Abstract: The Penn World Table displays a set of national accounts economic time series covering many countries. Its expenditure entries are denominated in a common set of prices in a common currency so that real quantity comparisons can be made, both between countries and over time. It also provides information about relative prices within and between countries, as well as demographic data and capital stock estimates. This updated, revised, and expanded Mark 5 version of the table includes more countries, years, and variables of interest to economic researchers. The Table is available on personal computer diskettes and through BITNET.
3,160 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1971
TL;DR: The emphasis is on simplification whenever possible, assuming the readers know college algebra and basic calculus, and Jan Kmenta explains all methods within the simplest framework, and generalizations are presented as logical extensions of simple cases.
Abstract: This classic text has proven its worth in university classrooms and as a tool kit in research--selling over 40,000 copies in the United States and abroad in its first edition alone. Users have included undergraduate and graduate students of economics and business, and students and researchers in political science, sociology, and other fields where regression models and their extensions are relevant. The book has also served as a handy reference in the "real world" for people who need a clear and accurate explanation of techniques that are used in empirical research.Throughout the book the emphasis is on simplification whenever possible, assuming the readers know college algebra and basic calculus. Jan Kmenta explains all methods within the simplest framework, and generalizations are presented as logical extensions of simple cases. And while a relatively high degree of rigor is preserved, every conflict between rigor and clarity is resolved in favor of the latter. Apart from its clear exposition, the book's strength lies in emphasizing the basic ideas rather than just presenting formulas to learn and rules to apply.The book consists of two parts, which could be considered jointly or separately. Part one covers the basic elements of the theory of statistics and provides readers with a good understanding of the process of scientific generalization from incomplete information. Part two contains a thorough exposition of all basic econometric methods and includes some of the more recent developments in several areas.As a textbook, "Elements of Econometrics" is intended for upper-level undergraduate and master's degree courses and may usefully serve as a supplement for traditional Ph.D. courses in econometrics. Researchers in the social sciences will find it an invaluable reference tool.A solutions manual is also available for teachers who adopt the text for coursework.Jan Kmenta is Professor Emeritus of Economics and Statistics, University of Michigan.
3,096 citations
2,075 citations
Book•
01 Jan 1977
TL;DR: Keohene and Nye as mentioned in this paper apply the economic process model of regime change to oceans (the international regime of the sea) and money (international economic relations), predicting that regimes will be established by technological and economic change.
Abstract: In this chapter, Keohene & Nye begin by applying the economic process model of regime change to oceans (the international regime of the sea) and money (international economic relations). This model predicts that “regimes will be established by technological and economic change, and that regimes will be established or reestablished to ensure the welfare benefits of interdependence” (131). While such a model does not provide a “sufficient explanation of any change” and may both over and under predict change, it must at the very least be considered.
1,889 citations