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Journal ArticleDOI

The climate signal in the stable isotopes of snow from Summit, Greenland: Results of comparisons with modern climate observations

30 Nov 1997-Journal of Geophysical Research (John Wiley & Sons, Ltd)-Vol. 102, pp 26425-26439
TL;DR: In this paper, the isotope composition of snow in Greenland with meteorological and climatic parameters has been linked with the past few hundred years measured in ice cores using a new record of isotope values from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Greenland Ice Core Project sites at Summit, Greenland.
Abstract: Recent efforts to link the isotopic composition of snow in Greenland with meteorological and climatic parameters have indicated that relatively local information such as observed annual temperatures from coastal Greenland sites, as well as more synoptic scale features such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the temperature seesaw between Jakobshaven, Greenland, and Oslo, Norway, are significantly correlated with δ18O and δD values from the past few hundred years measured in ice cores. In this study we review those efforts and then use a new record of isotope values from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Greenland Ice Core Project sites at Summit, Greenland, to compare with meteorological and climatic parameters. This new record consists of six individual annually resolved isotopic records which have been average to produce a Summit stacked isotope record. The stacked record is significantly correlated with local Greenland temperatures over the past century (r=0.471), as well as a number of other records including temperatures and pressures from specific locations as well as temperature and pressure patterns such as the temperature seesaw and the North Atlantic Oscillation. A multiple linear regression of the stacked isotope record with a number of meteorological and climatic parameters in the North Atlantic region reveals that five variables contribute significantly to the variance in the isotope record: winter NAO, solar irradiance (as recorded by sunspot numbers), average Greenland coastal temperature, sea surface temperature in the moisture source region for Summit (30°–20°N), and the annual temperature seesaw between Jakobshaven and Oslo. Combined, these variables yield a correlation coefficient of r=0.71, explaining half of the variance in the stacked isotope record.

Summary (1 min read)

Introduction

  • One of the great strengths of ice cores as proxies for past environmental conditions is that they can provide not only the long timescale necessary to view the large changes of the past glacial periods but also the high temporal resolution needed to look at socially relevant timescales, that is, subannual to decadal changes in climate and environmental conditions.
  • A total of six cores in the Summit region were drilled, sampled, and measured with sufficient temporal detail to calculate annual isotopic values.
  • The results of these studies are reviewed below.

3.2.1. Comparison with coastal temperatures. On the basis of both theoretical considerations and observations, stable

  • Isotope ratios of polar snows are commonly interpreted in terms of temperatures [Dansgaard, 1964] .
  • This approach depends on several key assumptions but is generally accepted as a very good first-order interpretation.
  • In all cases, except for the comparison with coastal temperatures mentioned earlier, the correlations with the stacked record were higher than the correlations with individual records.
  • Figure 6b shows the stacked isotopic record versus annual, winter (December-January-February.

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The climate signal in the stable isotopes of snow from
Summit, Greenland: Results of comparisons with
modern climate observations
J. White, L. Barlow, D. Fisher, P. Grootes, J. Jouzel, S. Johnsen, M. Stuiver,
H. Clausen
To cite this version:
J. White, L. Barlow, D. Fisher, P. Grootes, J. Jouzel, et al.. The climate signal in the stable
isotopes of snow from Summit, Greenland: Results of comparisons with modern climate observa-
tions. Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans, Wiley-Blackwell, 1997, 102 (C12), pp.26425-26439.
�10.1029/97JC00162�. �hal-03335034�

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 102, NO. C12, PAGES 26,425-26,439, NOVEMBER 30, 1997
The climate signal in the stable isotopes of snow
from Summit, Greenland:
Results of comparisons with modern climate observations
J. W. C. White, •,2 L. K. Barlow, D. Fisher, 3 P. Grootes, 4,s
J. Jouzel, 6 S. J. Johnsen, ?,8 M. Stuiver, 4 and H. Clausen ?
Abstract. Recent efforts to link the isotopic composition of snow in Greenland with
meteorological and climatic parameters have indicated that relatively local information
such as observed annual temperatures from coastal Greenland sites, as well as more
synoptic scale features such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the temperature
seesaw between Jakobshaven, Greenland, and Oslo, Norway, are significantly correlated
with 8180 and 8D values from the past few hundred years measured in ice cores. In this
study we review those efforts and then use a new record of isotope values from the
Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Greenland Ice Core Project sites at Summit,
Greenland, to compare with meteorological and climatic parameters. This new record
consists of six individual annually resolved isotopic records which have been average to
produce a Summit stacked isotope record. The stacked record is significantly correlated
with local Greenland temperatures over the past century (r = 0.471), as well as a
number of other records including temperatures and pressures from specific locations as
well as temperature and pressure patterns such as the temperature seesaw and the North
Atlantic Oscillation. A multiple linear regression of the stacked isotope record with a
number of meteorological and climatic parameters in the North Atlantic region reveals
that five variables contribute significantly to the variance in the isotope record: winter
NAO, solar irradiance (as recorded by sunspot numbers), average Greenland coastal
temperature, sea surface temperature in the moisture source region for Summit
(30ø-20øN), and the annual temperature seesaw between Jakobshaven and Oslo.
Combined, these variables yield a correlation coefficient of r = 0.71, explaining half of
the variance in the stacked isotope record.
1. Introduction
One of the great strengths of ice cores as proxies for past
environmental conditions is that they can provide not only the
long timescale necessary to view the large changes of the past
glacial periods but also the high temporal resolution needed to
look at socially relevant timescales, that is, subannual to dec-
adal changes in climate and environmental conditions. In the
past the focus in ice-core research, particularly for stable iso-
topes, has been mostly on the long timescales, with less em-
1Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado,
Boulder.
2Also at Department of Geological Sciences, University of Colo-
rado, Boulder.
3Glaciology Section, Terrain Sciences Division, Geological Survey of
Canada, Ottawa, Ontario.
4Department of Geological Sciences and Quaternary Research Cen-
ter, University of Washington, Seattle.
SNow at Liebniz Laboratory, Christian Albrechts University, Kiel,
Germany.
6Laboratoire de Mod•lisation du Climat et de l'Environnement,
Centre d'Etudes de Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
7Department of Geophysics, University of Copenhagen, Copenha-
gen, Denmark.
8Also at Science Institute, University of Reykjavik, Reykjavik, Ice-
land.
Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.
Paper number 97JC00162.
0148-0227/97/97JC-00162509.00
phasis on the recent record and even less on the Holocene.
Given our growing understanding of human impact on the
global environment and climate system, one of the primary
goals of the new Summit cores from the Greenland Ice Core
Project (GRIP) and the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2
(GISP2) was to take fuller advantage of the rich density of
information available in the cores. In particular, there was an
emphasis on determining how the isotopic signal records the
recent climatic conditions of central Greenland and how those
climate conditions can be related to the climate of the North
Atlantic region. Despite the great potential for using isotopic
data from ice cores to look at climate changes of the past few
centuries, these data have been largely ignored and/or dis-
missed in studies of recent climate change. This is due in part
to a lack of high-resolution isotopic data from the upper parts
of cores and in part to a lack of emphasis on understanding the
nature of the isotopic signal and what it records. Recently,
several papers have addressed this issue, using data from the
new GISP2 and GRIP cores in the Summit region as well as
other isotopic data, mostly collected and analyzed by the Dan-
ish and Canadian groups, which have recently become avail-
able for public distribution via the World Data Centers A for
Paleoclimatology and Glaciology (Boulder, Colorado). In this
paper we will review those efforts, which uniformly point to-
ward the conclusion that annually resolved isotopic data from
Greenland ice cores do contain useful climatic information.
We will then take a first look at the climate signals found in the
26,425

26,426 WHITE ET AL.: CLIMATE FROM ISOTOPES IN GREENLAND SNOW
stacked isotopic record from the Summit region. A total of six
cores in the Summit region were drilled, sampled, and mea-
sured with sufficient temporal detail to calculate annual isoto-
pic values. We have for the first time the capability to stack
isotopic records and thus to greatly decrease the isotopic noise
which is present in a single record, focusing attention on the
common signal present in a suite of cores. The stacked record
is described in a companion paper by Johnsen et al. [this issue].
Here we will compare this record to records of climate change
in the region in order to determine what climatic signals are
present in the isotopic composition of Greenland snow from
the Summit region.
2. Stable Isotope Ratios of Greenland Snow
and Regional North Atlantic Climate:
An Overview of Recent Results
Several recent studies have linked the isotopic composition
of snow (•80/•60 and/or D/H, expressed as 8•80 and 8D) in
the Summit area with climatic indicators or climate proxies in
the North Atlantic region. These include the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO), which is the atmospheric pressure oscilla-
tion between Iceland and the Azores [Walker, 1924; van Loon
and Rogers, 1978; Moses et al., 1987; Rogers, 1984; Barlow et al.,
1993; White et al., 1996], regional Greenland temperatures
[Fisher et al., 1996], the temperature seesaw, which is an op-
position in atmospheric temperatures between western Green-
land (Jakobshaven) and western Scandinavia (Oslo) [van Loon
and Rogers, 1978; Barlow et al., 1993], and solar activity [Stuiver
et al., 1995]. The results of these studies are reviewed below.
Our focus here will be on these newer studies as they all
examine data from the Summit area. We will later use the
relationships found in these studies between these climatic
parameters and the isotopic record of central Greenland as a
beginning point in examining the climate signals in the stacked
isotopic record from Summit.
The North Atlantic Oscillation is a unifying atmospheric
feature with associated variability in sea surface temperature
(SST) and land surface temperatures in the North Atlantic
region. The NAO denotes a sea level pressure contrast be-
tween the Icelandic Low and Azores High, specifically the
tendency of these two centers of action to strengthen or
weaken together [Walker, 1924; van Loon and Rogers, 1978;
Moses et al., 1987]. The NAO index is defined as the normal-
ized monthly mean sea level pressure difference between
Akureyri, Iceland, and Ponta Delgada, Azores [van Loon and
Rogers, 1978; Rogers, 1984]. Sea level pressure difference in the
North Atlantic is strongest in the winter, and generally the
NAO is discussed in terms of its winter character.
Investigations of the NAO by van Loon and Rogers [1978],
Rogers and van Loon [1979], Lamb [1977], Kelly et al. [1987],
and Moses et al. [1987] indicate two distinctly different atmo-
spheric and oceanic temperature regimes for the two extreme
modes of the NAO. The temperature seesaw, or tendency for
air temperatures in western Greenland to be warmer when air
temperatures in western Scandinavia are cooler (and vice ver-
sa), describes this opposition of temperatures in the region.
Intensification of the "normal" mode of the NAO (deep Ice-
landic Low, strengthened Azores High) has associations with
the Greenland below (GB; Greenland colder) mode of the
temperature seesaw as well as with stronger westerly winds and
higher than normal SSTs for large parts of the North Atlantic
Drift (Figure la). Stronger zonal westerlies are also associated
with warmer temperatures in England and northern Europe.
Intensification of the "reverse" mode of the NAO has associ-
ations with the Greenland above (GA; Greenland warmer)
mode of the temperature seesaw, as well as with weaker west-
erlies, stronger meridional winds, and lower SSTs in parts of
the North Atlantic Drift (Figure lb). Stronger meridional
winds are also associated with warmer temperatures along the
west Greenland coast.
The link between stable isotope ratios from snow in central
Greenland and the NAO was originally established in the
GISP2 core [Barlow et al., 1993] through association with the
seesaw in winter temperatures between Jakobshaven, Green-
land, and Oslo, Norway. Using the high-resolution isotopic
record, which contains at least eight samples per annual layer,
Barlow et al. compared the isotopic values of snow averaged
annually as well as the lowest isotopic values (isotope "win-
ters") and the highest values (isotopic "summers") with the
temperature seesaw. The focus was on the strong GA and GB
years taken from the winter seesaw values of van Loon and
Rogers [1978] for the years 1840-1970. Within this time period,
there were 23 GA winters and 26 GB winters. A one-tailed
t-test showed high statistical significance for annual and winter
as well as summer signals. The isotopic signal from the GISP2
site responds in agreement with the west Greenland (Jakob-
shavn) side of the temperature seesaw. It should be noted that
the temperature seesaw is not well defined in coastal temper-
ature stations on east Greenland. This suggests that while
there is some regional coherence in the coastal Greenland
temperatures, part of the variability in atmospheric tempera-
tures in Greenland is different from the western to the eastern
sides of the ice sheet. An investigation of storm tracks, cyclo-
genesis, atmospheric circulation patterns, and automatic
weather station (AWS) records suggests that precipitation ar-
rives in central Greenland primarily from both the southeast
and southwest/west [Barlow, 1994; Barlow et al., this issue].
This observation suggests that the isotopic composition of
snow should respond to both the average coastal temperatures
and the temperature pattern described by the temperature
seesaw, a suggestion that will be supported by the results of the
multiple linear regression analysis of the stacked isotope
record described in the second part of this paper.
In a different approach to relating the stable isotopes in the
GISP2 core to climate change, White et al. [1996] examined the
power spectrum of the annually averaged 8D values and com-
pared the periodicities found in the isotopic record with oscil-
lations found in records of climate change. The isotopic record
at GISP2 exhibits many statistically significant oscillations.
White et al. identified several which can also be found in other
annually resolved isotopic records from Greenland, including
sites in southern Greenland (Dye 3) and northern Greenland
(Camp Century). These periods, in years, are 4.5, 6.3, 7.5, 9.8,
12.2, and 16. These oscillations were filtered from the isotopic
time series and then plotted against similarly filtered oscilla-
tions from (1) the NAO, which has its strongest oscillation at
7.6 years, (2) sunspots, with a strong oscillation at 11-12 years,
and (3) the 8180 record from corals, which has a strong oscil-
lation at 4.6 years and which is a proxy of the E1 Nifio-
Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results of this study found
no statistical coherence, or similarity in the temporal pattern of
the amplitudes, for the isotopic signal versus ENSO, either for
the pressure indices or isotopic values from corals.
There was also no coherence between the l 1-year cycle of
sunspot numbers and the l 1-year cycle found in the GISP2

WHITE ET AL.: CLIMATE FROM ISOTOPES IN GREENLAND SNOW 26,427
a
0 ø,
30'
85'
70'
Higher
$ST
55' W
80;
L
Zonal
winds
40' W
b
H
25' W
10'W
5'E
5O:
winds
0 ø,
100'
Lower L
SST
85'
70'
55' W 40' W 25' W
10'W
5'E
Figure 1. (a) Diagram of Greenland below (GB) mode of the temperature seesaw. In this end-member,
Jakobshavn, Greenland, is relatively cold (marked by a minus sign) and Oslo, Norway, is relatively warm
(marked by a plus sign). Accompanying oceanic and atmospheric phenomena, all associated with extreme
normal mode of the NAO, are also noted: zonal winds with lower pressure north and higher pressure south
and higher sea surface temperatures in the western North Atlantic. The ice-core sites for GRIP and GISP2
are marked (Summit). The diagram is a compilation of observations of van Loon and Rogers [1978], Rogers and
van Loon [1979],Lamb [1977],Kelly et al. [1987], and Moses et al. [1987]. (b) As in Figure la, but for Greenland
above (GA) mode of the temperature seesaw (extreme reverse mode of the NAO).
isotopic record. Comparison of these two time series filtered to
isolate the 11-year component showed a slight correspondence,
as the strongest sunspot minima tended to occur in phase with
the strongest isotope minima. This correspondence was not
compelling evidence, however, that isotopes and sunspots are
linked. A different conclusion was reached by Stuiver et al.
[1995], who compared the GISP2 isotopic record with sunspots
for much of the Holocene. Their conclusion was that sunspots
and isotopes did indeed appear to show common variance over
this longer time period. Stuiver et al. also noted that volcanic

26,428 WHITE ET AL.: CLIMATE FROM ISOTOPES IN GREENLAND SNOW
Band-pass Filtered Components of the GISP2 •SD and the Winter NAO Indices
0
•-2
-4
-8
1880
-4
-2
-1•c
0
- 3
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980
Year
Band-pass Filtered Components of GISP2 •SD and the Winter NAO Reconstruction
-4
m 0 •'
-4 2
3
-8 4
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Figure 2. (a) Comparison of time series of/SD values from
the GISP2 ice core (thin line) and winter NAO indices (thicker
line) which have been band-pass filtered at 7.5 years to isolate
this oscillation in both records [from White et al. 1996]. In the
isotope data this is one of many significant oscillations. In the
NAO data this oscillation is significant and is the strongest in
the power spectrum. Note that both the phase and amplitude
of the two time series are very similar, implying that they are
responding to the same forcing or that this oscillation in the
isotope record is forced by the NAO oscillation. (b) As in
Figure 2a, except the winter NAO indices are inferred from
tree ring indices [Cook et al., 1997]. The match for these two
series is again excellent in the 1900s, but both the phasing and
particularly the amplitude deviate in the previous 2 centuries.
The implications of this are discussed in the text.
events appear to have an impact on the isotopic record, with
evidence of lower/5•80 (cooling) corresponding with volcanic
eruptions. They separated the volcanic events by size using
indices of explosivity and showed that larger eruptions tended
to be associated with larger/5•80 drops.
White et al. [1996] did find strong statistical coherence be-
tween the 7.6-year oscillations in the isotopic and NAO
records. In addition, the temporal patterns of these oscilla-
tions, when filtered from the individual records, match well for
the past 100 years. This is shown in Figure 2a. One drawback
of comparing the isotope values with NAO indices is that the
length of the NAO record is relatively short. In order to extend
the NAO record, a record of winter NAO indices derived from
tree rings [Cook et al., 1997] was also filtered for the 7.6-year
oscillation and then compared with the 7.6-year oscillation
filtered from the isotope time series. While all three filtered
records were very similar for the period 1880 to the present,
the correspondence between the tree ring NAO proxy and the
isotope series was not good between 1700 and 1880. This is
shown in Figure 2b. White and coworkers speculated that this
finding could mean that the NAO had a different behavior
prior to 1880, at least in the nature of the oscillations in the
indices, and that this difference could be driven by a different
climate mode during the Little Ice Age or by anthropogenic
influences in climate which began to manifest themselves in the
late 1800s. Of course, the result could also mean that one or
both of the climate proxies did not track the 7.6-year oscillation
in the NAO as well prior to 1880 for reasons having to do with
the proxy record and not the climate system. Nonetheless, the
apparent difference in behavior between 1700-1880 and 1880
to the present in the isotopic record and the tree ring NAO
record does raise some important issues for this study. First, it
reinforces the importance of using long records of climate
change to establish a baseline behavior in the climate system,
even if they are proxy records with the accompanying caveats
in interpretation, and second, it raises the point that calibrating
proxy records with historical observations of climate carries
some risk that uniformitarianism may not apply and thus the
proxy may not be correctly interpreted beyond the period of
historical observations.
One of the most exhaustive studies to date of the climate
information in stable isotope ratios in Greenland ice cores is
that of Fisher et al. [1996]. In this study, isotope records from
about 20 ice cores were used, each with isotopes measured at
subannual (>8 samples per year) resolution. Regional chro-
nologies of isotope ratios covering the last few centuries were
constructed for southern Greenland, central west Greenland,
central east Greenland, and northern Greenland, as well as for
the Canadian island sites Aggasiz, Ellesmere, and Devon.
For each region, isotope records from several individual
cores were stacked in order to reduce noise. Fisher et al. [1996]
discuss in detail the issue of noise in the isotopic times series
from individual cores. Noise in this sense is defined as isotopic
variability due to postdepositional processes which can alter
the original isotopic signal in the snow. These processes in-
clude unevenness in drifting or sastrugi, wind scouring, sum-
mer melting and penetration of the melt into the lower layers,
and vapor diffusion, which redistributes the isotopic gradients
occurring naturally due to seasonal changes in the isotopic
composition of snow.
The signal to noise ratio (S/N = (signal variance)/(noise
variance)) for a single isotopic profile in Greenland varies with
accumulation and latitude [Fisher et al., 1985]. For Greenland,
S/N appears to be smallest in the Summit area. The frequency
distribution of both the noise and signal variances in the ice
cores depends on the variable. For example, noise in snow
accumulation time series is concentrated in the higher frequen-
cies. Such noise can be reduced in a single time series by
averaging over relatively short time steps. For isotopic time
series, however, vapor diffusion tends to smooth out the high-
er-frequency variability and transfer it to the lower frequen-
cies, reddening the spectrum. This means that longer averaging
times, of the order of a decade or more, are needed to smooth
out the noise in individual isotopic time series. The necessity
for long averaging times has been observed when comparing
isotopic records from Greenland, although such averaging is
also required when cores are separated by large distances over
which climate is not correlated on the subdecade timescale
[e.g., Dansgaard et al., 1975].

Citations
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TL;DR: The authors presented a new composite record made from five well-resolved Antarctic ice core records that robustly represents the timing of re- gional Antarctic climate change during the last deglacia- tion using fast variations in global methane gas concen- trations as time markers.
Abstract: Precise information on the relative timing of north-south climate variations is a key to resolving ques- tions concerning the mechanisms that force and couple cli- mate changes between the hemispheres. We present a new composite record made from five well-resolved Antarctic ice core records that robustly represents the timing of re- gional Antarctic climate change during the last deglacia- tion. Using fast variations in global methane gas concen- trations as time markers, the Antarctic composite is directly compared to Greenland ice core records, allowing a de- tailed mapping of the inter-hemispheric sequence of climate changes. Consistent with prior studies the synchronized records show that warming (and cooling) trends in Antarc- tica closely match cold (and warm) periods in Greenland on millennial timescales. For the first time, we also identify a sub-millennial component to the inter-hemispheric coupling. Within the Antarctic Cold Reversal the strongest Antarctic cooling occurs during the pronounced northern warmth of the Bolling. Warming then resumes in Antarctica, potentially as early as the Intra-Allerod Cold Period, but with dating uncer- tainty that could place it as late as the onset of the Younger Dryas stadial. There is little-to-no time lag between climate transitions in Greenland and opposing changes in Antarctica. Our results lend support to fast acting inter-hemispheric cou- pling mechanisms, including recently proposed bipolar at- mospheric teleconnections and/or rapid bipolar ocean tele- connections.

140 citations


Cites background from "The climate signal in the stable is..."

  • ...Construction of compositeδ18Oice records from multiple ice cores has been demonstrated previously to reduce these local signals and produce reconstructions that more robustly represent regional climate trends (e.g. White et al., 1997; Andersen et al., 2006a)....

    [...]

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the NEEM deep ice core isotope data was analyzed for their isotope composition to understand the processes affecting the climatic signal archived in the water stable isotope records from the deep core, showing that the intermittency of modern winter precipitation is responsible for the lack of strong NAO imprint.
Abstract: [1] Samples of precipitation and atmospheric water vapor were collected together with shallow firn/ice cores as part of the new deep drilling project in northwest Greenland: the NEEM project. These samples were analyzed for their isotope composition to understand the processes affecting the climatic signal archived in the water stable isotope records from the NEEM deep ice core. The dominant moisture source for the snow deposited at the NEEM-site may be originating as far south as 35°N from the western part of the Atlantic Ocean. The surface atmospheric water vapor appears in isotopic equilibrium with the snow surface indicating a large water exchange between the atmosphere and snowpack. The interannual variability of NEEM shallow firn/ice cores stable isotope data covering the last ∼40 years shows an unexpectedly weak NAO signal. Regional to global atmospheric models simulate a dominant summer precipitation in the NEEM area, suggesting that the intermittency of modern winter precipitation is responsible for the lack of a strong NAO imprint. The interannual variability of NEEM isotope data however shows a strong correlation with interannual variations of Baffin Bay sea ice cover, a relationship consistent with air mass trajectories. NEEM deep ice core isotopic records may therefore provide detailed information on past Baffin Bay sea ice extent. NEEM stable water isotope content increasing trend points to a local warming trend of ∼3.0°C over the last 40 years.

139 citations

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TL;DR: In this article, the authors reconstruct Greenland surface snow temperature variability over the past 4000 years at the GISP2 site (near the Summit of the Greenland ice sheet; hereafter referred to as Greenland temperature) with a new method that utilizes argon and nitrogen isotopic ratios from occluded air bubbles.
Abstract: [1] Greenland recently incurred record high temperatures and ice loss by melting, adding to concerns that anthropogenic warming is impacting the Greenland ice sheet and in turn accelerating global sea-level rise. Yet, it remains imprecisely known for Greenland how much warming is caused by increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases versus natural variability. To address this need, we reconstruct Greenland surface snow temperature variability over the past 4000 years at the GISP2 site (near the Summit of the Greenland ice sheet; hereafter referred to as Greenland temperature) with a new method that utilises argon and nitrogen isotopic ratios from occluded air bubbles. The estimated average Greenland snow temperature over the past 4000 years was −30.7°C with a standard deviation of 1.0°C and exhibited a long-term decrease of roughly 1.5°C, which is consistent with earlier studies. The current decadal average surface temperature (2001–2010) at the GISP2 site is −29.9°C. The record indicates that warmer temperatures were the norm in the earlier part of the past 4000 years, including century-long intervals nearly 1°C warmer than the present decade (2001–2010). Therefore, we conclude that the current decadal mean temperature in Greenland has not exceeded the envelope of natural variability over the past 4000 years, a period that seems to include part of the Holocene Thermal Maximum. Notwithstanding this conclusion, climate models project that if anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue, the Greenland temperature would exceed the natural variability of the past 4000 years sometime before the year 2100.

129 citations

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129 citations


Additional excerpts

  • ...Original data between 100 and 110 kaBP are presented, though the precise age of this section of the record is uncertain, due to the progressive deterioration of the comparison between GRIP and GISP2 isotopic profiles in this period (Grootes et al., 1993)....

    [...]

  • ...Limited GISP2 excess data are also available for the last climatic transition (Taylor et al., 1997)....

    [...]

  • ...Other published studies addressed surface samples (Fischer et al., 1998) as well as the GISP2 (White et al., 1997) and GRIP ice cores (Hoffmann et al., 1998a, 2001) extending through the last millenium....

    [...]

  • ...While a comparison between the d18O profiles measured along the two summit cores (GRIP and GISP2) shows that the records are basically undisturbed back to 100 ka BP, there is now ample evidence for stratigraphic disturbance of the lowest part of the two cores (Bender et al., 1994; Fuchs and Leuenberger, 1996; Chappellaz et al., 1997; Landais et al., 2004b)....

    [...]

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, a new Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic is applied to identify the atmospheric conditions relevant for the fractionation of stable water isotopes during evaporation over the ocean and subsequent transport to Greenland.
Abstract: [1] A new Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic is applied to identify the atmospheric conditions relevant for the fractionation of stable water isotopes during evaporation over the ocean and subsequent transport to Greenland. Northern Hemisphere winter months with positive and negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index are studied on the basis of ERA-40 reanalysis data. Diagnosed moisture transport conditions are supplied to a Rayleigh-type isotope fractionation model to derive estimates for the isotopic composition of stable isotopes in winter precipitation on the Greenland plateau for the two NAO phases. Because of changes in atmospheric circulation, moisture source locations for precipitation in Greenland vary strongly for different phases of the NAO. The mean source SST is ∼5.0 K warmer during negative NAO months compared to the positive phase. This signal is considerably stronger than what would result from interannual SST variability at a spatially fixed moisture source. Furthermore, moisture transport takes place at warmer temperatures during NAO negative conditions. Simulated average isotopic depletion of Greenland precipitation is less negative by 3.8 ± 6.8‰ for δ18O during the negative compared to the positive NAO phase. Comparison with ice core data from central Greenland for three winters shows good agreement between observed and simulated variability. The synoptic interplay of the initial conditions at the moisture sources and of the atmospheric transport conditions leads to enhanced NAO-related interannual variability of stable isotopes. This could be important for understanding rapid shifts in stable isotopes during past climates. The isotope modeling applied here, however, considerably underestimates the absolute level of isotopic depletion. The offset is attributed to approximations in the model and uncertainties in the comparison with observational data. The high spatial resolution of the Lagrangian method reveals the nonhomogeneous structure of isotope NAO variability over the Greenland ice sheet. The results are therefore potentially useful for selecting new ice core drilling sites with maximum NAO variability.

126 citations


Cites background from "The climate signal in the stable is..."

  • ...…is therefore apparent in the snow accumulation sequence of ice cores [Appenzeller et al., 1998a, 1998b; Mosley-Thompson et al., 2005], as well as to some extent in the (winter) stable isotope signals in firn and ice cores from central Greenland [Barlow et al., 1993, 1997; White et al., 1997]....

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References
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Journal ArticleDOI
01 Nov 1964-Tellus A
TL;DR: In this paper, the isotopic fractionation of water in simple condensation-evaporation processes is considered quantitatively on the basis of the fractionation factors given in section 1.2.
Abstract: In chapter 2 the isotopic fractionation of water in some simple condensation-evaporation processes are considered quantitatively on the basis of the fractionation factors given in section 1.2. The condensation temperature is an important parameter, which has got some glaciological applications. The temperature effect (the δ's decreasing with temperature) together with varying evaporation and exchange appear in the “amount effect” as high δ's in sparse rain. The relative deuterium-oxygen-18 fractionation is not quite simple. If the relative deviations from the standard water (S.M.O.W.) are called δ D and δ 18 , the best linear approximation is δ D = 8 δ 18 . Chapter 3 gives some qualitative considerations on non-equilibrium (fast) processes. Kinetic effects have heavy bearings upon the effective fractionation factors. Such effects have only been demonstrated clearly in evaporation processes, but may also influence condensation processes. The quantity d = δ D −8 δ 18 is used as an index for non-equilibrium conditions. The stable isotope data from the world wide I.A.E.A.-W.M.O. precipitation survey are discussed in chapter 4. The unweighted mean annual composition of rain at tropical island stations fits the line δ D = 4.6 δ 18 indicating a first stage equilibrium condensation from vapour evaporated in a non-equilibrium process. Regional characteristics appear in the weighted means. The Northern hemisphere continental stations, except African and Near East, fit the line δ D = 8.0 δ 18 + 10 as far as the weighted means are concerned (δ D = 8.1 δ 18 + 11 for the unweighted) corresponding to an equilibrium Rayleigh condensation from vapour, evaporated in a non-equilibrium process from S.M.O.W. The departure from equilibrium vapour seems even higher in the rest of the investigated part of the world. At most stations the δ D and varies linearily with δ 18 with a slope close to 8, only at two stations higher than 8, at several lower than 8 (mainly connected with relatively dry climates). Considerable variations in the isotopic composition of monthly precipitation occur at most stations. At low latitudes the amount effect accounts for the variations, whereas seasonal variation at high latitudes is ascribed to the temperature effect. Tokyo is an example of a mid latitude station influenced by both effects. Some possible hydrological applications are outlined in chapter 5. DOI: 10.1111/j.2153-3490.1964.tb00181.x

7,081 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
01 Dec 1993-Nature
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the complete oxygen isotope record for the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) core, drilled 28 km west of the GRIP core, and observe large, rapid climate fluctuations throughout the last glacial period.
Abstract: RECENT results1,2 from the Greenland Ice-core Project (GRIP) Summit ice core suggest that the climate in Greenland has been remarkably stable during the Holocene, but was extremely unstable for the time period represented by the rest of the core, spanning the last two glaciations and the intervening Eemian inter-glacial. Here we present the complete oxygen isotope record for the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) core, drilled 28 km west of the GRIP core. We observe large, rapid climate fluctuations throughout the last glacial period, which closely match those reported for the GRIP core. However, in the bottom 10% of the cores, spanning the Eemian interglacial and the previous glacia-tion, there are significant differences between the two records. It is possible that ice flow may have altered the chronological sequences of the stratigraphy for the bottom part of one or both of the cores. Considerable further work will be necessary to evaluate the likelihood of this, and the extent to which it will still be possible to extract meaningful climate information from the lowest sections of the cores.

1,885 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: Measured 18O/16O ratios from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) ice core extending back to 16,500 cal yr B.P. provide a continuous record of climate change since the last glaciation as discussed by the authors.

944 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the well-known tendency for winter temperatures to be low over northern Europe when they are high over Greenland and the Canadian Arctic, and conversely, they found that these pressure anomalies are so distributed that the pressure in the region of the Icelandic low is negatively correlated with the pressure over the North Pacific Ocean and over the area south of 50°N in the North Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean and Middle East.
Abstract: We have investigated the well-known tendency for winter temperatures to be low over northern Europe when they are high over Greenland and the Canadian Arctic, and conversely. Well-defined pressure anomalies over most of the Northern Hemisphere are associated with this regional seesaw in temperature, and these pressure anomalies are so distributed that the pressure in the region of the Icelandic low is negatively correlated with the pressure over the North Pacific Ocean and over the area south of 50°N in the North Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean and Middle East, but positively correlated with the pressure over the Rocky Mountains. The composite patterns of pressure anomalies in the seesaw are almost identical to the fist eigenvector in the monthly mean pressure, but the standard deviations of pressure anomalies in seesaw mouths are as large as the standard deviations of monthly means in general. Since 1840 the seesaw, as defined by temperatures in Scandinavia and Greenland, occurred in more than 40%...

905 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors compared the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillations (SO) from the standpoint of their association with Northern Hemisphere winter mean distributions of sea-level pressure (SLP) and 500 mb height.
Abstract: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation (SO) are compared from the standpoint of their association with Northern Hemisphere winter mean distributions of sea-level pressure (SLP) and 500 mb height. The NAO and SO are associated with significant SLP differences over much of the hemisphere except for Siberia and western North America. Significant SLP and 500 mb height differences occur in the NAO over the Atlantic Ocean and near Baja California, while in the SO they occur over the Pacific Ocean, India and the western Atlantic. Only over the latter region do large pressure and height variations consistently occur in the extremes of both oscillations; these are also associated with winter temperature variability over the southeastern United States. For example, during winter 1982–83, when the two oscillations simultaneously reached extremes, the NAO was associated with record December warmth east of the Mississippi River, but during January and February the SO dominated the heigh...

669 citations