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The Collateral Channel: How Real Estate Shocks Affect Corporate Investment
TL;DR: In this article, the impact of real estate prices on corporate investment was studied and the sensitivity of investment to real estate values was found to be a function of local variations in real estate price as shocks to the collateral value of firms that own real estate.
Abstract: What is the impact of real estate prices on corporate investment? In the presence of financing frictions, firms use pledgeable assets as collateral to finance new projects. Through this collateral channel, shocks to the value of real estate can have a large impact on aggregate investment. To compute the sensitivity of investment to collateral value, we use local variations in real estate prices as shocks to the collateral value of firms that own real estate. Over the 1993-2007 period, the representative US corporation invests $0.06 out of each $1 of collateral.
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TL;DR: In this paper, applied researchers in corporate finance can address endogeneity concerns, including omitted variables, simultaneity, and measurement error, and discuss a number of econometric techniques aimed at addressing endogeneity problems, including instrumental variables, difference-in-differences estimators, regression discontinuity design, matching methods, panel data methods, and higher order moments estimators.
Abstract: This chapter discusses how applied researchers in corporate finance can address endogeneity concerns. We begin by reviewing the sources of endogeneity—omitted variables, simultaneity, and measurement error—and their implications for inference. We then discuss in detail a number of econometric techniques aimed at addressing endogeneity problems, including instrumental variables, difference-in-differences estimators, regression discontinuity design, matching methods, panel data methods, and higher order moments estimators. The unifying themes of our discussion are the emphasis on intuition and the applications to corporate finance.
1,460 citations
TL;DR: This article showed that borrowing against the increase in home equity by existing homeowners is responsible for a significant fraction of both the rise in U.S. household leverage from 2002 to 2006 and increase in defaults from 2006 to 2008.
Abstract: Using individual-level data on homeowner debt and defaults from 1997 to 2008, we show that borrowing against the increase in home equity by existing homeowners is responsible for a significant fraction of both the rise in U.S. household leverage from 2002 to 2006 and the increase in defaults from 2006 to 2008. Employing land topology-based housing supply elasticity as an instrument for house price growth, we estimate that the average homeowner extracts 25 cents for every dollar increase in home equity. Home equity-based borrowing is stronger for younger households, households with low credit scores, and households with high initial credit card utilization rates. Money extracted from increased home equity is not used to purchase new real estate or pay down high credit card balances, which suggests that borrowed funds may be used for real outlays. Lower credit quality households living in high house price appreciation areas experience a relative decline in default rates from 2002 to 2006 as they borrow heavily against their home equity, but experience very high default rates from 2006 to 2008. Our conservative estimates suggest that home equity-based borrowing added $1.25 trillion in household debt, and accounts for at least 39% of new defaults from 2006 to 2008.
997 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the impact of monetary policy on the supply of bank credit is analyzed and the authors find that tighter monetary and worse economic conditions substantially reduce loan granting, especially from banks with lower capital or liquidity ratios.
Abstract: We analyze the impact of monetary policy on the supply of bank credit. Monetary policy affects both loan supply and demand, thus making identification a steep challenge. We therefore analyze a novel, supervisory dataset with loan applications from Spain. Accounting for time-varying firm heterogeneity in loan demand, we find that tighter monetary and worse economic conditions substantially reduce loan granting, especially from banks with lower capital or liquidity ratios; responding to applications for the same loan, weak banks are less likely to grant the loan. Finally, firms cannot offset the resultant credit restriction by applying to other banks. (JEL E32, E44, E52, G21, G32)
919 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a generalised version of a tractable firm selection model and a standard model of agglomeration were used to show that firm selection cannot explain spatial productivity differences.
Abstract: Firms are more productive on average in larger cities. Two main explanations have been offered: firm selection (larger cities toughen competition, allowing only the most productive to survive) and agglomeration economies (larger cities promote interactions that increase productivity), possibly reinforced by localised natural advantage. To distinguish between them, we nest a generalised version of a tractable firm selection model and a standard model of agglomeration. Stronger selection in larger cities left-truncates the productivity distribution whereas stronger agglomeration right-shifts and dilates the distribution. Using this prediction, French establishment level data, and a new quantile approach, we show that firm selection cannot explain spatial productivity differences. This result holds across sectors, city size thresholds, establishment samples, and area definitions.
753 citations
TL;DR: This article studied how economic policy uncertainty influences corporate investment for Chinese listed companies and showed that firms with higher return on invested capital, use more internal finance and are not state-owned mitigate the negative effect of policy uncertainty on corporate investment.
Abstract: This paper studies how economic policy uncertainty influences corporate investment for Chinese listed companies. We show that when the degree of economic policy uncertainty is higher, firms stand to lower their investment and vice versa. However, firms that have higher return on invested capital, use more internal finance and are not state-owned mitigate the negative effect of policy uncertainty on corporate investment. Moreover, firms in regions with higher degree of marketization are more sensitive to the economic policy uncertainty. The evidence illustrates that keeping the transparency and stability of the implementation of economic policies can improve corporate investment efficiency.
405 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, a model is developed to provide the first theoretical justification for true credit rationing in a loan market, where the amount of the loan and amount of collateral demanded affect the behavior and distribution of borrowers, and interest rates serve as screening devices for evaluating risk.
Abstract: According to basic economics, if demand exceeds supply, prices will rise, thus decreasing demand or increasing supply until demand and supply are in equilibrium; thus if prices do their job, rationing will not exist. However, credit rationing does exist. This paper demonstrates that even in equilibrium, credit rationing will exist in a loan market. Credit rationing is defined as occurring either (a) among loan applicants who appear identical, and some do and do not receive loans, even though the rejected applicants would pay higher interest rates; or (b) there are groups who, with a given credit supply, cannot obtain loans at any rate, even though with larger credit supply they would. A model is developed to provide the first theoretical justification for true credit rationing. The amount of the loan and the amount of collateral demanded affect the behavior and distribution of borrowers. Consequently, faced with increased credit demand, it may not be profitable to raise interest rates or collateral; instead banks deny loans to borrowers who are observationally indistinguishable from those receiving loans. It is not argued that credit rationing always occurs, but that it occurs under plausible assumptions about lender and borrower behavior. In the model, interest rates serve as screening devices for evaluating risk. Interest rates change the behavior (serve as incentive mechanism) for the borrower, increasing the relative attractiveness of riskier projects; banks ration credit, rather than increase rates when there is excess demand. Banks are shown not to increase collateral as a means of allocating credit; although collateral may have incentivizing effects, it may have adverse selection effects. Equity, nonlinear payment schedules, and contingency contracts may be introduced and yet there still may be rationing. The law of supply and demand is thus a result generated by specific assumptions and is model specific; credit rationing does exist. (TNM)
13,126 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors randomly generate placebo laws in state-level data on female wages from the Current Population Survey and use OLS to compute the DD estimate of its "effect" as well as the standard error of this estimate.
Abstract: Most papers that employ Differences-in-Differences estimation (DD) use many years of data and focus on serially correlated outcomes but ignore that the resulting standard errors are inconsistent. To illustrate the severity of this issue, we randomly generate placebo laws in state-level data on female wages from the Current Population Survey. For each law, we use OLS to compute the DD estimate of its “effect” as well as the standard error of this estimate. These conventional DD standard errors severely understate the standard deviation of the estimators: we find an “effect” significant at the 5 percent level for up to 45 percent of the placebo interventions. We use Monte Carlo simulations to investigate how well existing methods help solve this problem. Econometric corrections that place a specific parametric form on the time-series process do not perform well. Bootstrap (taking into account the autocorrelation of the data) works well when the number of states is large enough. Two corrections based on asymptotic approximation of the variance-covariance matrix work well for moderate numbers of states and one correction that collapses the time series information into a “pre”- and “post”-period and explicitly takes into account the effective sample size works well even for small numbers of states.
9,397 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the relationship between financing constraints and investment-cash flow sensitivities by analyzing the firms identified by Fazzari, Hubbard, and Petersen as having unusually high investment cash flow sensitivity.
Abstract: No. This paper investigates the relationship between financing constraints and investment-cash flow sensitivities by analyzing the firms identified by Fazzari, Hubbard, and Petersen as having unusually high investment-cash flow sensitivities. We find that firms that appear less financially constrained exhibit significantly greater sensitivities than firms that appear more financially constrained. We find this pattern for the entire sample period, subperiods, and individual years. These results (and simple theoretical arguments) suggest that higher sensitivities cannot be interpreted as evidence that firms are more financially constrained. These findings call into question the interpretation of most previous research that uses this methodology.
5,147 citations
"The Collateral Channel: How Real Es..." refers background in this paper
...This simple observation has important macroeconomic consequences: as noted by Bernanke and Gertler (1989) and Kiyotaki and Moore (1997), business downturns will deteriorate assets values, thus reducing debt capacity and depressing investment, which will amplify the downturn....
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TL;DR: The authors constructs a simple neoclassical model of intrinsic business cycle dynamics in which borrowers' balance sheet positions play an important role and shows that the agency costs of undertaking physical investments are inversely related to the entrepreneur's/borrower's net worth.
Abstract: This paper constructs a simple neoclassical model of intrinsic business cycle dynamics in which borrowers' balance sheet positions play an important role. The critical insight is that the agency costs of undertaking physical investments are inversely related to the entrepreneur's/borrower's net worth. As a result, accelerator effects on investment emerge: Strengthened borrower balance sheets resulting from good times expand investment demand, which in turn tends to amplify the upturn; weakened balance sheets in bad times do just the opposite. Further, redistributions or other shocks that affect borrowers' balance sheets (as in a debt-deflation} may have aggregate real effects.
4,286 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the optimal rate of investment as a function of marginal q adjusted for tax parameters is derived from data on average q assuming the actual U.S. tax system concerning corporate tax rate and depreciation allowances.
Abstract: It is increasingly recognized that Tobin's conjecture that investment is a function of marginal q is equivalent to the firm's optimal capital accumulation problem with adjustment costs. This paper formalizes this idea in a very general fashion and derives the optimal rate of investment as a function of marginal q adjusted for tax parameters. An exact relationship between marginal q and average q is also derived. Marginal q adjusted for tax parameters is then calculated from data on average q assuming the actual U.S. tax system concerning corporate tax rate and depreciation allowances. IN THE LAST DECADE and a half, the literature on investment has been dominated by two theories of investment-the neoclassical theory originated by Jorgenson and the \"q\" theory suggested by Tobin. The neoclassical theory of investment starts from a firm's optimization behavior. The objective of the firm is to maximize the present discounted value of net cash flows subject to the technological constraints summarized by the production function. It seems useful to divide the neoclassical theory into two stages. The earlier version of the neoclassical approach developed by Jorgenson [11] derives the optimal capital stock under constant returns to scale and exogenously given output. To make the rate of investment determinate, the model is completed by a distributed lag function for net investment. This earlier version of the neoclassical investment theory has a couple of drawbacks. The assumption of exogenously given output (which makes the optimal capital stock determinate) is inconsistent with perfect competition. The theory itself cannot determine the rate of investment; rather, it relies on an ad hoc stock adjustment mechanism. Some sort of adjustment costs are introduced implicitly through the distributed lag function for investment.
2,928 citations