The collective dynamics of smoking in a large social network.
22 May 2008-The New England Journal of Medicine (Massachusetts Medical Society)-Vol. 358, Iss: 21, pp 2249-2258
TL;DR: Despite the decrease in smoking in the overall population, the size of the clusters of smokers remained the same across time, suggesting that whole groups of people were quitting in concert.
Abstract: BACKGROUND The prevalence of smoking has decreased substantially in the United States over the past 30 years. We examined the extent of the person-to-person spread of smoking behavior and the extent to which groups of widely connected people quit together. METHODS We studied a densely interconnected social network of 12,067 people assessed repeatedly from 1971 to 2003 as part of the Framingham Heart Study. We used network analytic methods and longitudinal statistical models. RESULTS Discernible clusters of smokers and nonsmokers were present in the network, and the clusters extended to three degrees of separation. Despite the decrease in smoking in the overall population, the size of the clusters of smokers remained the same across time, suggesting that whole groups of people were quitting in concert. Smokers were also progressively found in the periphery of the social network. Smoking cessation by a spouse decreased a person's chances of smoking by 67% (95% confidence interval [CI], 59 to 73). Smoking cessation by a sibling decreased the chances by 25% (95% CI, 14 to 35). Smoking cessation by a friend decreased the chances by 36% (95% CI, 12 to 55 ). Among persons working in small firms, smoking cessation by a coworker decreased the chances by 34% (95% CI, 5 to 56). Friends with more education influenced one another more than those with less education. These effects were not seen among neighbors in the immediate geographic area. CONCLUSIONS Network phenomena appear to be relevant to smoking cessation. Smoking behavior spreads through close and distant social ties, groups of interconnected people stop smoking in concert, and smokers are increasingly marginalized socially. These findings have implications for clinical and public health interventions to reduce and prevent smoking.
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2,114 citations
TL;DR: Results from a randomized controlled trial of political mobilization messages delivered to 61 million Facebook users during the 2010 US congressional elections show that the messages directly influenced political self-expression, information seeking and real-world voting behaviour of millions of people.
Abstract: Online social networks are everywhere. They must be influencing the way society is developing, but hard evidence is scarce. For instance, the relative effectiveness of online friendships and face-to-face friendships as drivers of social change is not known. In what may be the largest experiment ever conducted with human subjects, James Fowler and colleagues randomly assigned messages to 61 million Facebook users on Election Day in the United States in 2010, and tracked their behaviour both online and offline, using publicly available records. The results show that the messages influenced the political communication, information-seeking and voting behaviour of millions of people. Social messages had more impact than informational messages and 'weak ties' were much less likely than 'strong ties' to spread behaviour via the social network. Thus online mobilization works primarily through strong-tie networks that may exist offline but have an online representation.
2,003 citations
01 Jan 2010
TL;DR: Individual adoption was much more likely when participants received social reinforcement from multiple neighbors in the social network, and the behavior spread farther and faster across clustered-lattice networks than across corresponding random networks.
1,869 citations
References
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01 Jan 1962
TL;DR: A history of diffusion research can be found in this paper, where the authors present a glossary of developments in the field of Diffusion research and discuss the consequences of these developments.
Abstract: Contents Preface CHAPTER 1. ELEMENTS OF DIFFUSION CHAPTER 2. A HISTORY OF DIFFUSION RESEARCH CHAPTER 3. CONTRIBUTIONS AND CRITICISMS OF DIFFUSION RESEARCH CHAPTER 4. THE GENERATION OF INNOVATIONS CHAPTER 5. THE INNOVATION-DECISION PROCESS CHAPTER 6. ATTRIBUTES OF INNOVATIONS AND THEIR RATE OF ADOPTION CHAPTER 7. INNOVATIVENESS AND ADOPTER CATEGORIES CHAPTER 8. DIFFUSION NETWORKS CHAPTER 9. THE CHANGE AGENT CHAPTER 10. INNOVATION IN ORGANIZATIONS CHAPTER 11. CONSEQUENCES OF INNOVATIONS Glossary Bibliography Name Index Subject Index
38,750 citations
TL;DR: Upon returning to the U.S., author Singhal’s Google search revealed the following: in January 2001, the impeachment trial against President Estrada was halted by senators who supported him and the government fell without a shot being fired.
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TL;DR: Developments in this field are reviewed, including such concepts as the small-world effect, degree distributions, clustering, network correlations, random graph models, models of network growth and preferential attachment, and dynamical processes taking place on networks.
Abstract: Inspired by empirical studies of networked systems such as the Internet, social networks, and biological networks, researchers have in recent years developed a variety of techniques and models to help us understand or predict the behavior of these systems. Here we review developments in this field, including such concepts as the small-world effect, degree distributions, clustering, network correlations, random graph models, models of network growth and preferential attachment, and dynamical processes taking place on networks.
17,647 citations
TL;DR: In this article, an extension of generalized linear models to the analysis of longitudinal data is proposed, which gives consistent estimates of the regression parameters and of their variance under mild assumptions about the time dependence.
Abstract: SUMMARY This paper proposes an extension of generalized linear models to the analysis of longitudinal data. We introduce a class of estimating equations that give consistent estimates of the regression parameters and of their variance under mild assumptions about the time dependence. The estimating equations are derived without specifying the joint distribution of a subject's observations yet they reduce to the score equations for multivariate Gaussian outcomes. Asymptotic theory is presented for the general class of estimators. Specific cases in which we assume independence, m-dependence and exchangeable correlation structures from each subject are discussed. Efficiency of the proposed estimators in two simple situations is considered. The approach is closely related to quasi-likelih ood. Some key ironh: Estimating equation; Generalized linear model; Longitudinal data; Quasi-likelihood; Repeated measures.
17,111 citations
"The collective dynamics of smoking ..." refers background in this paper
...[8,9] Models with an exchangeable correlation structure yielded poorer fit....
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TL;DR: The homophily principle as mentioned in this paper states that similarity breeds connection, and that people's personal networks are homogeneous with regard to many sociodemographic, behavioral, and intrapersonal characteristics.
Abstract: Similarity breeds connection. This principle—the homophily principle—structures network ties of every type, including marriage, friendship, work, advice, support, information transfer, exchange, comembership, and other types of relationship. The result is that people's personal networks are homogeneous with regard to many sociodemographic, behavioral, and intrapersonal characteristics. Homophily limits people's social worlds in a way that has powerful implications for the information they receive, the attitudes they form, and the interactions they experience. Homophily in race and ethnicity creates the strongest divides in our personal environments, with age, religion, education, occupation, and gender following in roughly that order. Geographic propinquity, families, organizations, and isomorphic positions in social systems all create contexts in which homophilous relations form. Ties between nonsimilar individuals also dissolve at a higher rate, which sets the stage for the formation of niches (localize...
15,738 citations