The Demand for Automobiles
01 Aug 1970-Canadian Journal of Economics (Canadian Economics Association)-Vol. 3, Iss: 3, pp 386-406
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present an empirique analysis of the comportement des consommateurs in terms of the possession of a car and the number of cars they own.
Abstract: La demande d'automobiles. Dans une perspective d'analyse microdconomique, un aspect important de la demande d'automobiles concerne le fait que pour toute periode, il y a absence d'achats de la part d'un grand nombre d'unites de consommation. I1 s'agit la d'une caract6ristique dont il faut tenir compte dans la mise au point d'un mod6le th6orique approprid du comportement des consommateurs ; aussi, dans l1'laboration d'un mod'ele empirique qui permette d'analyser des donnees qui reflitent cette caract6ristique. Dans le mod6le thdorique choisi, les auteurs presentent 1e choix auquel lVunite de consommation fait face comme un probleme de programmation non-lineaire comportant plusieurs periodes. Le mod6le permet de voir pourquoi les consommateurs n'adaptent pas leurs stocks de fagon continue, et pourquoi ils ne possWdent qu'un petit nombre d'automobiles. Dans la section empirique, les auteurs etudient diffdrents aspects du comportement des consommateurs quant 'a la possession d'automobiles, a l'aide des donn6es sous forme de coupes intertemporelles. Ils font d'abord l'examen des effets des variables independantes sur les variations des stocks d'automobiles, a l'aide d'une technique qui est une generalisation A plusieurs dimensions du modble lineaire ( logit . Les formes des variations sont supposees 8tre l'une ou l'autre des suivantes: (1) aucune variation; (2) vente d'une auto ; (3) remplacement d'une auto et (4) achat d'une auto additionnelle* Le meme modele a servi i studier les effets des variables sur le nombre d'autos possdd6es par les consomnateurs. Certains autres aspects du comportement des consommateurs ont aussi 6t e'tudies empiriquement, a savoir: (1) les effets des variables sur les depenses, en supposant qu'il y a des remplacements ou des additions aux stocks, et (2) les effets de ces variables sur la valeur des stocks. Les modMles choisis ont donn6 des r6sultats interessants quant a l'explication du nivean des stocks d'autos et de leurs changements. Les resultats indiquent aussi que les probabilit6s que l'une ou l'autre des formes de variations se r6alise dependent de fagon significative des variables inddpendantes, et sont diff6rentes d'une forme A une autre. Les auteurs ont aussi obtenu de bons re'sultats avec leurs modMles, en ce qui concerne les montants qui correspondent aux differentes formes de choix. Dans le cas des variables associees au statut socio-6conomique des consommateurs, on observe g6nralement ce qui dtait prdvu quant aux signes des coefficients significatifs. Il apparait que le revenu disponible joue un r6le beaucoup plus important que les actifs liquides. La qualit6 des resultats obtenus A partir des modM4es varie jusqu'& un certain point suivant les ann6es. On ne sait pas si cela correspond & des changements des fonctions d'utilit6, ou A des imperfections quant A la specification des modMles.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors surveyed the current state of econometric models and methods for the analysis of qualitative dependent variables and discussed that the models of economic optimization that are presumed to govern conventional continuous decisions are equally appropriate for analysis of discrete response.
Abstract: Publisher Summary This chapter has surveyed the current state of econometric models and methods for the analysis of qualitative dependent variables. It discusses that the models of economic optimization that are presumed to govern conventional continuous decisions are equally appropriate for the analysis of discrete response. While the intensive marginal conditions associated with many continuous decisions are not applicable, the characterization of economic agents as optimizers implies conditions at the extensive margin and substantive restrictions on functional form. Unless the tenets of the behavioral theory are themselves under test, it is good econometric practice to impose these restrictions as maintained hypotheses in the construction of discrete response models. As a formulation in terms of latent variable models makes clear, qualitative response models share many of the features of conventional econometric systems. Thus the problems and methods arising in the main stream of econometric analysis mostly transfer directly to discrete response. Divergences from the properties of the standard linear model arise from nonlinearity rather than from discreteness of the dependent variable. Thus, most developments in the analysis of nonlinear econometric systems apply to qualitative response models. In summary, methods for the analysis of qualitative dependent variables are part of the continuing development of econometric technique to match the real characteristics of economic behavior and data.
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