The Economics of Uncertainty.
About: This article is published in Journal of the American Statistical Association.The article was published on 1970-03-01. It has received 83 citations till now.
Citations
More filters
TL;DR: The authors analyzes competitive markets in which the characteristics of the commodities exchanged are not fully known to at least one of the parties to the transaction, and suggests that some of the most important conclusions of economic theory are not robust to considerations of imperfect information.
Abstract: Economic theorists traditionally banish discussions of information to footnotes. Serious consideration of costs of communication, imperfect knowledge, and the like would, it is believed, complicate without informing. This paper, which analyzes competitive markets in which the characteristics of the commodities exchanged are not fully known to at least one of the parties to the transaction, suggests that this comforting myth is false. Some of the most important conclusions of economic theory are not robust to considerations of imperfect information.
3,990 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that the optimal way of implementing an action by an agent can be found by solving a convex programming problem, and they use this to characterize the optimal incentive scheme and to analyze the determinants of the seriousness of an incentive problem.
Abstract: Most analyses of the principal-agent problem assume that the principal chooses an incentive scheme to maximize expected utility subject to the agent’s utility being at a stationary point. An important paper of Mirrlees has shown that this approach is generally invalid. We present an alternative procedure. If the agent’s preferences over income lotteries are independent of action, we show that the optimal way of implementing an action by the agent can be found by solving a convex programming problem. We use this to characterize the optimal incentive scheme and to analyze the determinants of the seriousness of an incentive problem.
2,743 citations
TL;DR: The first part of the paper develops and estimates a structural equation for the demand for health care and then examines the dynamic interaction between the purchase of insurance and the demand and supply for health Care.
Abstract: American families are in general overinsured against health expenses. If insurance coverage were reduced, the utility loss from increased risk would be more than outweighted by the gain due to lower prices and the reduced purchase of excess care. The first part of the paper develops and estimates a structural equation for the demand for health care and then examines the dynamic interaction between the purchase of insurance and the demand and supply for health care. The second part estimates the welfare gains that would result from decreasing insurance by raising the average coinsurance rate from 0.33 to 0.50 and 0.67 percent. The most likely values imply net gains in excess of $4 billion.
511 citations
432 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors consider two sets of theories attempting to explain wage rigidities and unemployment: implicit contract theory and the efficiency wage theory, and conclude that the former does not provide a convincing explanation of the kind of wage rigidity which is associated with cyclical unemployment, while the latter theories do.
Abstract: This paper considers two sets of theories attempting to explain wage rigidities and unemployment: implicit contract theory and the efficiency wage theory. The basic thesis of the paper is that the former set of theories do not provide a convincing explanation of the kind of wage rigidity which is associated with cyclical unemployment,while the latter theories do. Several of the more recent versions of implicit contract theory are considered: implicit contracts with asymmetric information may give rise to over employment rather than underemployment, and the forms of contracts to be expected, were asymmetric information considerations paramount, are not observed.Other versions of the asymmetric information implicit contract model, explicitly long term in nature, may give rise to full employment. One version of implicit contract theory which does give rise to lay-offs arises when search is costly and cannot be monitored. But even this extension does not explain certain important features of observed patterns of unemployment. In contrast, the efficiency wage models not only provide an explanation of the existence of unemployment equilibrium in competitive economies, but they also provide part of the explanation of the observed patterns of unemployment. They also explain why different firms may pay similar workers different wages, why wages may be sticky, why firms maynot loose much if they fail to adjust their wages, and why, when they adjust their wages optimally, they adjust them slowly.The policy implications of the efficiency wage model are markedly different from those of models in which wages are absolutely rigid aswell as from those in which unemployment arises from asymmetric information.
201 citations