The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study.
Kiesha Prem,Yang Liu,Timothy W Russell,Adam J. Kucharski,Rosalind M Eggo,Nicholas G Davies,Stefan Flasche,Samuel Clifford,Carl A. B. Pearson,James D Munday,Sam Abbott,Hamish Gibbs,Alicia Rosello,Billy J Quilty,Thibaut Jombart,Fiona Yueqian Sun,Charlie Diamond,Amy Gimma,Kevin van Zandvoort,Sebastian Funk,Christopher I Jarvis,W. John Edmunds,Nikos I Bosse,Joel Hellewell,Mark Jit,Petra Klepac +25 more
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In this paper, the effects of physical distancing measures on the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China were investigated using synthetic location-specific contact patterns.Abstract:
BACKGROUND: In December, 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus, emerged in Wuhan, China. Since then, the city of Wuhan has taken unprecedented measures in response to the outbreak, including extended school and workplace closures. We aimed to estimate the effects of physical distancing measures on the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic, hoping to provide some insights for the rest of the world. METHODS: To examine how changes in population mixing have affected outbreak progression in Wuhan, we used synthetic location-specific contact patterns in Wuhan and adapted these in the presence of school closures, extended workplace closures, and a reduction in mixing in the general community. Using these matrices and the latest estimates of the epidemiological parameters of the Wuhan outbreak, we simulated the ongoing trajectory of an outbreak in Wuhan using an age-structured susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model for several physical distancing measures. We fitted the latest estimates of epidemic parameters from a transmission model to data on local and internationally exported cases from Wuhan in an age-structured epidemic framework and investigated the age distribution of cases. We also simulated lifting of the control measures by allowing people to return to work in a phased-in way and looked at the effects of returning to work at different stages of the underlying outbreak (at the beginning of March or April). FINDINGS: Our projections show that physical distancing measures were most effective if the staggered return to work was at the beginning of April; this reduced the median number of infections by more than 92% (IQR 66-97) and 24% (13-90) in mid-2020 and end-2020, respectively. There are benefits to sustaining these measures until April in terms of delaying and reducing the height of the peak, median epidemic size at end-2020, and affording health-care systems more time to expand and respond. However, the modelled effects of physical distancing measures vary by the duration of infectiousness and the role school children have in the epidemic. INTERPRETATION: Restrictions on activities in Wuhan, if maintained until April, would probably help to delay the epidemic peak. Our projections suggest that premature and sudden lifting of interventions could lead to an earlier secondary peak, which could be flattened by relaxing the interventions gradually. However, there are limitations to our analysis, including large uncertainties around estimates of R0 and the duration of infectiousness. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, Wellcome Trust, and Health Data Research UK.read more
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School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review.
Russell M Viner,Simon Russell,Helen Croker,Jessica Packer,Joseph L Ward,Claire Stansfield,Oliver T Mytton,Chris Bonell,Robert Booy +8 more
TL;DR: Policy makers need to be aware of the equivocal evidence when considering school closures for COVID-19, and that combinations of social distancing measures should be considered.
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COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Worldwide: A Concise Systematic Review of Vaccine Acceptance Rates.
TL;DR: A systematic search of the peer-reviewed English survey literature indexed in PubMed was done on 25 December 2020 as discussed by the authors to provide an up-to-date assessment of COVID-19 vaccination acceptance rates worldwide.
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Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China.
Juanjuan Zhang,Maria Litvinova,Yuxia Liang,Yan Wang,Wei Wang,Shanlu Zhao,Qianhui Wu,Stefano Merler,Cécile Viboud,Alessandro Vespignani,Alessandro Vespignani,Marco Ajelli,Hongjie Yu +12 more
TL;DR: It is found that social distancing alone, as implemented in China during the outbreak, is sufficient to control COVID-19, and children 0 to 14 years of age are less susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.
Journal ArticleDOI
Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions.
Nils Haug,Lukas Geyrhofer,Alessandro Londei,Elma Dervic,Amélie Desvars-Larrive,Vittorio Loreto,Beate Pinior,Stefan Thurner,Stefan Thurner,Peter Klimek +9 more
TL;DR: The results indicate that a suitable combination of NPIs is necessary to curb the spread of the virus, and a modelling approach that combines four computational techniques merging statistical, inference and artificial intelligence tools is proposed.
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Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Vo'.
Enrico Lavezzo,Elisa Franchin,Constanze Ciavarella,Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg,Luisa Barzon,Claudia Del Vecchio,Lucia Rossi,Riccardo Manganelli,Arianna Loregian,Nicolò Navarin,Davide Abate,Manuela Sciro,Stefano Merigliano,Ettore De Canale,Maria Cristina Vanuzzo,Valeria Besutti,Francesca Saluzzo,Francesco Onelia,Monia Pacenti,Saverio Giuseppe Parisi,Giovanni Carretta,Daniele Donato,Luciano Flor,Silvia Cocchio,Giulia Masi,Alessandro Sperduti,Lorenzo Cattarino,Renato Salvador,Michele Nicoletti,Federico Caldart,Gioele Castelli,Eleonora Nieddu,Beatrice Labella,Ludovico Fava,Matteo Drigo,Katy A. M. Gaythorpe,Alessandra Rosalba Brazzale,Stefano Toppo,Marta Trevisan,Vincenzo Baldo,Christl A. Donnelly,Christl A. Donnelly,Neil M. Ferguson,Ilaria Dorigatti,Andrea Crisanti,Andrea Crisanti +45 more
TL;DR: Light is shed on the frequency of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, their infectivity (as measured by the viral load) and the insights into its transmission dynamics and the efficacy of the implemented control measures are provided.
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