The External Wealth of Nations Mark Ii: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004
TL;DR: In this article, the authors construct estimates of external assets and liabilities for 145 countries for the period 1970-2004, focusing on trends in net and gross external positions, and the composition of international portfolios.
Abstract: We construct estimates of external assets and liabilities for 145 countries for the period 1970-2004. We describe our estimation methods and present key features of the data at the country and the global level. We focus on trends in net and gross external positions, and the composition of international portfolios, distinguishing between foreign direct investment, portfolio equity investment, official reserves, and external debt. We document the increasing importance of equity financing and the improvement in the external position for emerging markets, and the differing pace of financial integration between advanced and developing economies. We also show the existence of a global discrepancy between estimated foreign assets and liabilities, and identify the asset categories that account for this discrepancy.
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TL;DR: In this paper, a new index is proposed to measure the extent of openness in cross-border financial transactions, based on the information from the IMF's Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER).
Abstract: We create a new index that measures the extent of openness in capital account transactions. Despite the abundance of literature and policy analyses regarding the effect of financial liberalization, the debate is far from settled. One of the reasons for that outcome is the lack of proper ways of measuring the extent of the openness in cross-border financial transactions. We seek to remedy this deficiency by creating an index aimed at measuring the extensity of capital controls based on the information from the IMF's Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER). This paper details how we construct the data and where our index stands in relation to the extant literature. Given the intricacy of capital controls policies and regulations, the exercise of quantifying the extent of financial openness remains a challenging task. Nonetheless, our index makes a substantial contribution in terms of its coverage of countries and time period; the data are available for 181 countrie...
2,015 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that the global financial cycle is not aligned with countries' specific macroeconomic conditions and propose a convex combination of targeted capital control, macroprudential control, and stricter limit on leverage for all financial intermediaries.
Abstract: There is a global financial cycle in capital flows, asset prices and in credit growth. This cycle co‐moves with the VIX, a measure of uncertainty and risk aversion of the markets. Asset markets in countries with more credit inflows are more sensitive to the global cycle. The global financial cycle is not aligned with countries’ specific macroeconomic conditions. Symp toms can go from benign to large asset price bubbles and excess credit creation, which are among the best predictors of financial crises. A VAR analysis suggests that one of the determinants of the global financial cycle is monetary policy in the centre country , which affects leverage of global banks, capital flows and credit growth in the international financial system. Whenever capital is freely mobile, the global financial cycle constrains national monetary policies regardless of the exchange rate regime. For the past few decades, international macroeconomics has postulated the “trilemma”: with free capital mobility, inde pendent monetary policies are feasible if and only if exchange rates are floating. The global financial cycle transforms the trilemma into a “dilemma” or an “irreconcilable duo”: independent monetary policies are possible if and only if the capital account is managed. So should policy restrict capital mobility? Gains to international capital flows have proved elusive whether in calibrated models or in the data. Large gross flows disrupt asset markets and financial intermediation, so the costs may be very large. To deal with the global financial cycle and the “dilemma”, we have the following policy options: ( a) targeted capital controls; (b) acting on one of the sources of the financial cyc le itself, the monetary policy of the Fed and other main central banks; (c) acting on the transmission channel cyclically by limiting credit growth and leverage during the upturn of the cycle, using national macroprudential policies; (d) acting on the transmission channel structurally by imposing stricter limit s on leverage for all financial intermediaries. We argue for a convex combination of (a), (c) and (d).
1,428 citations
TL;DR: This article analyzed the drivers of international waves in capital flows and found that global factors, especially global risk, are the most important determinants of these episodes, while domestic macroeconomic characteristics are generally less important, although changes in domestic economic growth influence episodes caused by foreigners.
Abstract: This paper analyzes the drivers of international waves in capital flows. We build on the literature on “sudden stops” and “bonanzas” to develop a new methodology for identifying episodes of extreme capital flow movements using quarterly data on gross inflows and gross outflows, differentiating activity by foreigners and domestics. We identify episodes of “surge”, “stop”, “flight”, and “retrenchment” and show how our approach yields fundamentally different results than the previous literature that used measures of net flows. Global factors, especially global risk, are the most important determinants of these episodes. Contagion, especially through trade and the bilateral exposure of banking systems, is important in determining stop and retrenchment episodes. Domestic macroeconomic characteristics are generally less important, although changes in domestic economic growth influence episodes caused by foreigners. We find little role for capital controls in reducing capital flow waves. The results help provide insights for different theoretical approaches explaining crises and capital flow volatility.
1,083 citations
TL;DR: The KOF Globalisation Index as discussed by the authors is a composite index measuring globalization for every country in the world along the economic, social and political dimensions, which is based on 43 instead of 23 variables in the previous version.
Abstract: We introduce the revised version of the KOF Globalisation Index, a composite index measuring globalization for every country in the world along the economic, social and political dimension. The original index was introduced by Dreher (Applied Economics, 38(10):1091–1110, 2006) and updated in Dreher et al. (2008). This second revision of the index distinguishes between de facto and de jure measures along the different dimensions of globalization. We also disentangle trade and financial globalization within the economic dimension of globalization and use time-varying weighting of the variables. The new index is based on 43 instead of 23 variables in the previous version. Following Dreher (Applied Economics, 38(10):1091–1110, 2006), we use the new index to examine the effect of globalization on economic growth. The results suggest that de facto and de jure globalization influence economic growth differently. Future research should use the new KOF Globalisation Index to re-examine other important consequences of globalization and why globalization was proceeding rapidly in some countries, such as South Korea, but less so in others. The KOF Globalisation Index can be downloaded from http://www.kof.ethz.ch/globalisation/
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1,027 citations
17 Feb 2014
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that from the perspective of the best available macroeconomic data, there is not a lot of evidence that redistribution has in fact undercut economic growth (except in extreme cases).
Abstract: The Fund has recognized in recent years that one cannot separate issues of economic growth and stability on one hand and equality on the other. Indeed, there is a strong case for considering inequality and an inability to sustain economic growth as two sides of the same coin. Central to the Fund’s mandate is providing advice that will enable members’ economies to grow on a sustained basis. But the Fund has rightly been cautious about recommending the use of redistributive policies given that such policies may themselves undercut economic efficiency and the prospects for sustained growth (the so-called “leaky bucket” hypothesis written about by the famous Yale economist Arthur Okun in the 1970s). This SDN follows up the previous SDN on inequality and growth by focusing on the role of redistribution. It finds that, from the perspective of the best available macroeconomic data, there is not a lot of evidence that redistribution has in fact undercut economic growth (except in extreme cases). One should be careful not to assume therefore—as Okun and others have—that there is a big tradeoff between redistribution and growth. The best available macroeconomic data do not support such a conclusion.
816 citations
References
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Posted Content•
Abstract: Capital flows are closely monitored, but surprisingly little is known about the stocks of external assets and liabilities held by countries, especially in the developing world. This paper constructs estimates of foreign assets and liabilities and their equity and debt subcomponents for 66 industrial and developing countries for the period 1970-97. It explores the sensitivity of estimates of stock positions to the treatment of valuation effects not captured in balance of payments data. Finally, it characterizes the stylized facts of estimated stocks and asks whether there are trends in net foreign asset positions and differences in debt-equity ratios across countries.
666 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this article, the authors constructed estimates of foreign assets and liabilities and their equity and debt subcomponents for a sample of 67 industrial and developing countries, and explored the sensitivity of estimated stock positions to the treatment of valuation effects not captured in balance of payments data.
Abstract: Although capital flows are closely monitored, surprisingly little is known about the accumulated stocks of foreign assets and liabilities held by various countries, especially in the developing world. This paper constructs estimates of foreign assets and liabilities and their equity and debt subcomponents for a sample of 67 industrial and developing countries. It characterizes the stylized facts of international balance sheets and asks whether there are trends in net foreign asset positions and shifts in debt-equity ratios over time. Finally, it explores the sensitivity of estimated stock positions to the treatment of valuation effects not captured in balance of payments data.
461 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore the implications of a country's external budget constraint to study the dynamics of net foreign assets and exchange rate movements, and find that deterioration in a country net exports or net foreign asset position relative to their trend have to be matched either by future net export growth (the trade channel) or by future increases in the returns of the net-foreign asset portfolio, a hitherto unexplored valuation channel.
Abstract: The paper explores the implications of a country’s external budget constraint to study the dynamics of net foreign assets and exchange rate movements. We show that deteriorations in a country’s net exports or net foreign asset position relative to their trend have to be matched either by future net export growth (the trade channel) or by future increases in the returns of the net foreign asset portfolio, a hitherto unexplored valuation channel. Using a newly constructed data set on US gross foreign positions, we find that stabilizing valuation effects contribute as much as 27% of the cyclical external adjustment. Our approach also has asset pricing implications. Our measure of external imbalance predicts net foreign asset portfolio returns one quarter to two years ahead and net exports at longer horizons. The exchange rate affects the trade balance and the valuation of net foreign assets. It is forecastable in and out of sample at one quarter and beyond. A one standard deviation increase in external imbalances predicts an annualized 4% depreciation of the exchange rate over the next quarter.
447 citations
Posted Content•
TL;DR: In this paper, a broad range of plans are considered, including a global lender of last resort facility, an international bankruptcy court, international debt insurance corporation, and unilateral controls on capital flows.
Abstract: This paper asks how recent developments in research on banking and sovereign lending can help inform the debate on choosing a new international financial architecture. A broad range of plans is considered, including a global lender of last resort facility, an international bankruptcy court, an international debt insurance corporation, and unilateral controls on capital flows.
430 citations
"The External Wealth of Nations Mark..." refers background in this paper
...…of international balance sheets has been the subject of wide discussion in recent years, with an excessive reliance on debt finance perceived as increasing vulnerability and an equity-based financing promoted as improving international risk sharing (Rogoff, 1999; Lane and Milesi-Ferretti, 2001b)....
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe the broad trends in international financial integration for a sample of industrial countries, and seek to explain the cross-country and time-series variation in the size of international balance sheets.
Abstract: In recent decades, foreign assets and liabilities in advanced countries have grown rapidly relative to GDP, with the increase in gross cross-holdings far exceeding the size of net positions. Moreover, the portfolio equity and FDI categories have grown in importance relative to international debt stocks. In this paper, we describe the broad trends in international financial integration for a sample of industrial countries, and seek to explain the cross-country and time-series variation in the size of international balance sheets. We also examine the behavior of the rates of return on foreign assets and liabilities, relating them to 'market' returns.
408 citations
"The External Wealth of Nations Mark..." refers background or methods in this paper
...The Scale of International Financial Integration In Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2003), we constructed a volume-based measure of international financial integration ( ) ,it itit it FA FLIFIGDP GDP + = (2) where FA (FL) denotes the stock of external assets (liabilities)....
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...To explore this issue, we report a second measure of financial integration that focuses exclusively on portfolio equity and FDI holdings (see Lane and Milesi-Ferretti, 2003): ( ) ,it it it itit it PEQA FDIA PEQL FDILGEQGDP GDP + + + = (3) where PEQA (PEQL) denotes the stock of portfolio equity…...
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...Figure 7, which reports the ratio of external debt and official reserves to 22 Trends for industrial countries are discussed more at length in Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2003)....
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...Among other countries, those in emerging Europe, the Commonwealth of Independent States 1 Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2001a, 2003, 2005a), Tille (2003)....
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