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The gain from the drain: skill-biased migration and global welfare

01 Oct 2016-Research Papers in Economics (Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA))-
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide a global perspective on the brain drain by jointly quantifying its impact on the sending and receiving countries in a calibrated multi-country model, and compare the current world to a counterfactual with the same number of migrants, but those migrants are randomly selected from their country of origin.
Abstract: High-skilled workers are four times more likely to migrate than low-skilled workers This skill bias in migration – often called brain drain – has been at the center of a heated debate about the welfare consequences of emigration from developing countries In this paper, we provide a global perspective on the brain drain by jointly quantifying its impact on the sending and receiving countries In a calibrated multi-country model, we compare the current world to a counterfactual with the same number of migrants, but those migrants are randomly selected from their country of origin We find that the skill bias in migration significantly increases welfare in most receiving countries Moreover, due to a more efficient global allocation of talent, the global welfare effect is positive, albeit some sending countries lose Overall, our findings suggest that more – not less – high-skilled migration would increase world welfare
Citations
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Journal Article
TL;DR: A detailed review of the education sector in Australia as in the data provided by the 2006 edition of the OECD's annual publication, 'Education at a Glance' is presented in this paper.
Abstract: A detailed review of the education sector in Australia as in the data provided by the 2006 edition of the OECD's annual publication, 'Education at a Glance' is presented. While the data has shown that in almost all OECD countries educational attainment levels are on the rise, with countries showing impressive gains in university qualifications, it also reveals that a large of share of young people still do not complete secondary school, which remains a baseline for successful entry into the labour market.

2,141 citations

DOI
01 Jun 2015
TL;DR: Paul Collier, profesor de economia y politicas publicas de la Universidad de Oxford, analiza la actualidad del fenomeno migratorio junto a sus desafios presentes and future as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: [249] En este ensayo, Paul Collier, profesor de economia y politicas publicas de la Universidad de Oxford, analiza la actualidad del fenomeno migratorio junto a sus desafios presentes y futuros. El trabajo esta centrado en la migracion proveniente de los paises en desarrollo hacia los paises desarrollados, pero aborda tambien los flujos en direccion norte-norte, sur-sur y norte-sur. Desde una perspectiva multidisciplinar, enriquecida por las aportaciones de campos como la neuroeconomia, el autor analiza la distancia entre realidad e ideologia en torno a las migraciones. Intenta para ello romper con los prejuicios y las creencias mas difundidas sobre el fenomeno, al tiempo que supera los tabues y aborda los temas silenciados en relacion con la movilidad humana. A partir de una amplia bibliografia y de recientes datos estadisticos sobre el tema, Collier trasciende el debate acerca de si la migracion es buena o mala para los paises de origen y recepcion y se centra en otros elementos de creciente interes: ?Cuanta migracion es buena para las sociedades receptoras y de expulsion?, ?cuales son las mejores estrategias a disposicion para hacer de la migracion un proyecto exitoso para todos? Su trabajo analiza a este respecto las consecuencias de caracter economico, social y politico en las sociedades receptoras y colma uno de los vacios existentes Exodus: How Migration is Changing Our World

75 citations

Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: This article developed a dynamic model of the world economy that jointly endogenizes individual decisions about fertility, education and migration and used it to compare the short and long-term effects of immigration restrictions on the world distribution of income.
Abstract: We develop a dynamic model of the world economy that jointly endogenizes individual decisions about fertility, education and migration. We then use it to compare the short- and long-term effects of immigration restrictions on the world distribution of income. Our calibration strategy replicates the economic and demographic characteristics of the world, and allows us to proxy bilateral migration costs and visa costs for two classes of workers and for each pair of countries. In our benchmark simulations, the world average level of income per worker increases by 12% in the short term and by approximately 52% after one century. These results are highly robust to our identifying strategy and technological assumptions. Sizable differences are obtained when our baseline (pre-liberalization) trajectory involves a rapid income convergence between countries or when we adjust visa costs for a possible upward bias. Our quantitative analysis reveals that the effects of liberalizing migration on human capital accumulation and income are gradual and cumulative. Whatever is the size of the short-term gain, the long-run impact is 4 to 5 times greater (except under a rapid convergence in income).

30 citations


Cites background from "The gain from the drain: skill-bias..."

  • ...22 See Biavaschi et al. (2016) for a discussion on the population composition effects in the measurement of the skill selection of migrants (relative to non-migrants). higher education, which increases the proportion of tertiary educated after the liberalization (see the discussion in Sect....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed the factors underlying the evolution of the worldwide distribution of skills and their implications for global inequality, and developed and parameterized a two-sector, two-class, world economy model that endogenized education and mobility decisions, population growth, and income disparities across and within countries.

23 citations


Cites methods from "The gain from the drain: skill-bias..."

  • ...As for the nonagricultural sector, we use data on the wage ratio from Biavaschi et al. (2016) for 143 countries.28 We calibrate R$n using (3)....

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Journal ArticleDOI
TL;DR: The authors developed a dynamic model of the world economy that jointly endogenizes individual decisions about fertility, education and migration and used it to compare the short and long-term effects of immigration restrictions on the world distribution of income.
Abstract: We develop a dynamic model of the world economy that jointly endogenizes individual decisions about fertility, education and migration. We then use it to compare the shortand long-term effects of immigration restrictions on the world distribution of income. Our calibration strategy replicates the economic and demographic characteristics of the world, and allows us to proxy bilateral migration costs and visa costs for two classes of workers and for each pair of countries. In our benchmark simulations, the world average level of income per worker increases by 12% in the short term and by approximately 52% after one century. These results are highly robust to our identifying strategy and technological assumptions. Sizable differences are obtained when our baseline (pre-liberalization) trajectory involves a rapid income convergence between countries or when we adjust visa costs for a possible upward bias. Our quantitative analysis reveals that the effects of liberalizing migration on human capital accumulation and income are gradual and cumulative. Whatever is the size of the short-term gain, the long-run impact is 4 to 5 times greater (except under a rapid convergence in income).

7 citations


Cites methods from "The gain from the drain: skill-bias..."

  • ...Biavaschi et al. (2016) apply the same data to a different model and find an average welfare decrease of 1.8% at the world level and 3.5% for the OECD countries....

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References
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01 Jan 1988
Abstract: This paper considers the prospects for constructing a neoclassical theory of growth and international trade that is consistent with some of the main features of economic development. Three models are considered and compared to evidence: a model emphasizing physical capital accumulation and technological change, a model emphasizing human capital accumulation through schooling, and a model emphasizing specialized human capital accumulation through learning-by-doing.

19,093 citations

Posted Content
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a simple formal analysis which incorporates these elements, and show how it can be used to shed some light on some issues which cannot be handled in more conventional models.
Abstract: For some time now there has been considerable skepticism about the ability of comparative cost theory to explain the actual pattern of international trade. Neither the extensive trade among the industrial countries, nor the prevalence in this trade of two-way exchanges of differentiated products, make much sense in terms of standard theory. As a result, many people have concluded that a new framework for analyzing trade is needed.' The main elements of such a framework-economies of scale, the possibility of product differentiation, and imperfect competition-have been discussed by such authors as Bela Balassa, Herbert Grubel (1967,1970), and Irving Kravis, and have been "in the air" for many years. In this paper I present a simple formal analysis which incorporates these elements, and show how it can be used to shed some light on some issues which cannot be handled in more conventional models. These include, in particular, the causes of trade between economies with similar factor endowments, and the role of a large domestic market in encouraging exports. The basic model of this paper is one in which there are economies of scale in production and firms can costlessly differentiate their products. In this model, which is derived from recent work by Avinash Dixit and Joseph Stiglitz, equilibrium takes the form of Chamberlinian monopolistic competition: each firm has some monopoly power, but entry drives monopoly profits to zero. When two imperfectly competitive economies of this kind are allowed to trade, increasing returns produce trade and gains from trade even if the economies have identical tastes, technology, and factor endowments. This basic model of trade is presented in Section I. It is closely related to a model I have developed elsewhere; in this paper a somewhat more restrictive formulation of demand is used to make the analysis in later sections easier. The rest of the paper is concerned with two extensions of the basic model. In Section II, I examine the effect of transportation costs, and show that countries with larger domestic markets will, other things equal, have higher wage rates. Section III then deals with "home market" effects on trade patterns. It provides a formal justification for the commonly made argument that countries will tend to export those goods for which they have relatively large domestic markets. This paper makes no pretense of generality. The models presented rely on extremely restrictive assumptions about cost and utility. Nonetheless, it is to be hoped that the paper provides some useful insights into those aspects of international trade which simply cannot be treated in our usual models.

4,876 citations


"The gain from the drain: skill-bias..." refers background or methods in this paper

  • ...1 Own calculations from the 2010 OECD-DIOC database. Docquier & Rapoport (2012a) nd similar gures. 2 Mountford (1997), Stark et al. (1997), Vidal (1998) provide theoretical models showing how high-skilled emigration increases returns to education and triggers investment in human capital in the sending countries....

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  • ...1 Own calculations from the 2010 OECD-DIOC database. Docquier & Rapoport (2012a) nd similar gures. 2 Mountford (1997), Stark et al....

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  • ...1 Own calculations from the 2010 OECD-DIOC database. Docquier & Rapoport (2012a) nd similar gures....

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Posted Content
TL;DR: This article analyzed the way in which the immigrant population may be expected to differ from the earnings of the native population because of the endogeneity of the migration decision and showed that differences in the U.S. earnings of immigrants with the same measured skills, but from different home countries, are attributable to variations in conditions in the country of origin at the time of migration.
Abstract: This paper analyzes the way in which the earnings of the immigrant population may be expected to differ from the earnings of the native population because of the endogeneity of the migration decision. The conditions that determine the nature of the self -selection are derived and depend on economic and political characteristics of the sending and receiving countries. The empirical analysis shows that differences in the U.S. earnings of immigrants with the same measured skills, but from different home countries, are attributable to variations in conditions in the country of origin at the time of migration.

2,584 citations

Journal Article
TL;DR: A detailed review of the education sector in Australia as in the data provided by the 2006 edition of the OECD's annual publication, 'Education at a Glance' is presented in this paper.
Abstract: A detailed review of the education sector in Australia as in the data provided by the 2006 edition of the OECD's annual publication, 'Education at a Glance' is presented. While the data has shown that in almost all OECD countries educational attainment levels are on the rise, with countries showing impressive gains in university qualifications, it also reveals that a large of share of young people still do not complete secondary school, which remains a baseline for successful entry into the labour market.

2,141 citations


"The gain from the drain: skill-bias..." refers background or methods in this paper

  • ...For the OECD countries, we compute these ratios from the "Education at a Glance" report 2010 (OECD, 2010)....

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  • ...17 The share of output produced by foreign workers (ai ) is calibrated to match the educationspeci c wage premia for natives over immigrants, which is 5% in OECD countries. For nonOECD countries, we use the average value obtained in OECD countries (ai = 0.478) as we cannot assess country-speci c values due to the lack of immigration data. The production function includes three types of workers.18 To calibrate its structural parameters, we use parameter values obtained by Ottaviano & Peri (2012). To account for imperfect substitution between the three education groups, the elasticity of substitution, σs, is set to 5....

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  • ...The 2010 DIOC database provides data on bilateral stocks by education level of migrants who went from 111 sending countries to the OECD and migrants who moved between all 34 OECD countries, as well as the population size and skill distribution of natives in the 34 OECD countries. The de nition of the three education levels is as follows: low-skilled individuals are those who achieved up to lower secondary or second stage of basic education; medium-skilled individuals obtained up to some post-secondary non-tertiary education; while high-skilled individuals have at least some tertiary education. To obtain the number and skill distribution of non-migrants for the nonOECD countries, we use data from Barro & Lee (2010).11 For the Rest of the World, we apply the average skill distribution of the available non-OECD countries....

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  • ...The GDP per capita in Luxembourg the OECD's richest country is ve times larger than in Mexico, the OECD's poorest country. Moreover, in poorer countries the agricultural sector contributes a larger share to aggregate production. The productivity parameters Ai and A M i account for the di erences in aggregate productivity across as well as di erences in the sectoral productivity within countries. Second, as shown by Tre er (1993), countries considerably di er in their endowment of e ective labor. For instance, the same highskilled worker is more productive in the US than in Mexico, because in the US he/she faces a higher complementarity between capital and skill. We account for these di erences through country-speci c e ciency parameters for high- and low-skilled workers, αL i , α H i . Third, within a country, workers with similar skills are closer substitutes in production than workers with di erent skills (Card & Lemieux, 2001). We account for this imperfect substitutability by modeling the production function of the manufacturing sector with a CES structure. Fourth, as shown by Ottaviano & Peri (2012) and Peri & Sparber (2009), migrants and natives are imperfect substitutes even when they have the same level of education, which we account for in Equation (7) with an elasticity of substitution between immigrants and natives σn <∞ and country-speci c...

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  • ...5 Both gures are based on the 2010 OECD-DIOC database. See Appendix E for the list of abbreviations. 6 These di erences in the skill compositions of migrants can be explained by supply and demand factors. On the supply side, they re ect individual self-selection in the migration decision, i.e. the degree to which immigration is an attractive option for tertiary-educated workers and the varying level of attractiveness of di erent destinations for di erent groups. On the demand side, receiving countries apply di erent degrees of skill-based migration policies, which determine the characteristics of the immigrant population. The canonical model of migrant self-selection is provided by Borjas (1987). For a discussion of the empirical evidence, see Biavaschi & Elsner (2013)....

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Book ChapterDOI
TL;DR: In this article, the estimation and interpretation of gravity equations for bilateral trade is discussed, and several theory-consistent estimation methods are presented. But the authors argue against sole reliance on any one method and instead advocate a toolkit approach.
Abstract: This chapter focuses on the estimation and interpretation of gravity equations for bilateral trade. This necessarily involves a careful consideration of the theoretical underpinnings since it has become clear that naive approaches to estimation lead to biased and frequently misinterpreted results. There are now several theory-consistent estimation methods and we argue against sole reliance on any one method and instead advocate a toolkit approach. One estimator may be preferred for certain types of data or research questions but more often the methods should be used in concert to establish robustness. In recent years, estimation has become just a first step before a deeper analysis of the implications of the results, notably in terms of welfare. We try to facilitate diffusion of best-practice methods by illustrating their application in a step-by-step cookbook mode of exposition.

1,852 citations