The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China
TL;DR: It is found that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China’s water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people.
Abstract: China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents.
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TL;DR: In this paper, the impacts of global climate change on food systems are expected to be widespread, complex, geographically and temporally variable, and profoundly influenced by socioeconomic conditions, and some synergies among food security, adaptati...
Abstract: Food systems contribute 19%–29% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, releasing 9,800–16,900 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2008. Agricultural production, including indirect emissions associated with land-cover change, contributes 80%–86% of total food system emissions, with significant regional variation. The impacts of global climate change on food systems are expected to be widespread, complex, geographically and temporally variable, and profoundly influenced by socioeconomic conditions. Historical statistical studies and integrated assessment models provide evidence that climate change will affect agricultural yields and earnings, food prices, reliability of delivery, food quality, and, notably, food safety. Low-income producers and consumers of food will be more vulnerable to climate change owing to their comparatively limited ability to invest in adaptive institutions and technologies under increasing climatic risks. Some synergies among food security, adaptati...
1,598 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a comprehensive summary of studies that simulate climate change impacts on agriculture are reported in a meta-analysis, which suggests that aggregate yield losses should be expected for wheat, rice and maize in temperate and tropical growing regions even under relatively moderate levels of local warming.
Abstract: A comprehensive summary of studies that simulate climate change impacts on agriculture are now reported in a meta-analysis. Findings suggest that, without measures to adapt to changing conditions, aggregate yield losses should be expected for wheat, rice and maize in temperate and tropical growing regions even under relatively moderate levels of local warming.
1,458 citations
01 Jan 2014
TL;DR: The questions for this chapter are how far climate and its change affect current food production systems and food security and the extent to which they will do so in the future.
Abstract: Many definitions of food security exist, and these have been the subject of much debate. As early as 1992, Maxwell and Smith (1992) reviewed more than 180 items discussing concepts and definitions, and more definitions have been formulated since (DEFRA, 2006). Whereas many earlier definitions centered on food production, more recent definitions highlight access to food, in keeping with the 1996 World Food Summit definition (FAO, 1996) that food security is met when “all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” Worldwide attention on food access was given impetus by the food “price spike” in 2007–2008, triggered by a complex set of long- and short-term factors (FAO, 2009b; von Braun and Torero, 2009). FAO concluded, “provisional estimates show that, in 2007, 75 million more people were added to the total number of undernourished relative to 2003–05” (FAO, 2008); this is arguably a low-end estimate (Headey and Fan, 2010). More than enough food is currently produced per capita to feed the global population, yet about 870 million people remained hungry in the period from 2010 to 2012 (FAO et al., 2012). The questions for this chapter are how far climate and its change affect current food production systems and food security and the extent to which they will do so in the future (Figure 7-1).
960 citations
Cites background from "The impacts of climate change on wa..."
...…vulnerability framework and considering the B1 and A2 emission scenarios to project impacts on aquaculture in the tropical Pacific to 2035 and 2100, Pickering et al. (2011) concluded that production of freshwater species such as tilapia, carp, and milkfish will probably benefit from the expected…...
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TL;DR: A comprehensive map of both soil and water pollution threats to food safety in China is presented and integrated policies addressing soil andWater pollution for achieving food safety are suggested to provide a holistic approach.
779 citations
Cites background from "The impacts of climate change on wa..."
...Most research papers to date have focused on the relationships between crop yield andwater resources (Y.Wang et al., 2008; Piao et al., 2010; Peng, 2011), water use efficiency (Deng et al....
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...…(Deng et al., 2006; Fan et al., 2011), infrastructure (Lohmar et al., 2003), agricultural management (Hu et al., 2006) and climate change (Piao et al., 2010; Grassini and Cassman, 2012;Wei et al., 2014), while few studies have investigated the effects of surface water pollution on grain…...
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..., 2006) and climate change (Piao et al., 2010; Grassini and Cassman, 2012;Wei et al., 2014), while few studies have investigated the effects of surface water pollution on grain quality at the national scale....
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...Most research papers to date have focused on the relationships between crop yield andwater resources (Y.Wang et al., 2008; Piao et al., 2010; Peng, 2011), water use efficiency (Deng et al., 2006; Fan et al., 2011), infrastructure (Lohmar et al., 2003), agricultural management (Hu et al., 2006) and…...
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TL;DR: A comprehensive analysis of hundreds of combinations of data sets suggests that only 24.6% of the global land area has been exposed to robust dryness changes since 1948 as mentioned in this paper, which is the smallest proportion of the world's land area exposed to dryness change since 1948.
Abstract: Past continental dryness trends are difficult to assess. A comprehensive analysis of hundreds of combinations of data sets suggests that only 24.6% of the global land area have been exposed to robust dryness changes since 1948.
622 citations
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Abstract: This report is the first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. It covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
32,826 citations
TL;DR: In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring, which leads to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn when demand is highest.
Abstract: All currently available climate models predict a near-surface warming trend under the influence of rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In addition to the direct effects on climate--for example, on the frequency of heatwaves--this increase in surface temperatures has important consequences for the hydrological cycle, particularly in regions where water supply is currently dominated by melting snow or ice. In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn when demand is highest. Where storage capacities are not sufficient, much of the winter runoff will immediately be lost to the oceans. With more than one-sixth of the Earth's population relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply, the consequences of these hydrological changes for future water availability--predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions--are likely to be severe.
3,831 citations