The impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on employment in Cameroon: A general equilibrium analysis
TL;DR: A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that assesses the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on different economic sectors in Cameroon has been presented in this paper, where a special feature of the CGE model used in this study is that it accounts for the importance of the informal sector in Cameroon.
Abstract: This paper presents a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that assesses the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on different economic sectors in Cameroon A special feature of the CGE model used in this study is that it accounts for the importance of the informal sector in Cameroon Indeed, more than 80% of the employed work in the informal sector, which is characterized by the precariousness and instability of income and employment over time and space Simulation results suggest that economic sectors such as construction, education, hotels and restaurants and commerce should receive special attention, as they have experienced the most severe employments losses This calls for a differentiated support from the government to protect employment in these industries
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TL;DR: The study found that the COVID‐19 outbreak led to increases in food prices of the sampled countries, and restrictions on movements or lockdowns in the wake of CO VID‐19 was associated with an increase in the price of maize only.
Abstract: This study investigated the impact of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on prices of maize, sorghum, imported rice and local rice in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We estimated dynamic panel data models with controls for macroeconomic setting using general method of moments estimation. The study found that the COVID-19 outbreak led to increases in food prices of the sampled countries. Restrictions on movements or lockdowns in the wake of COVID-19 was associated with an increase in the price of maize only. We also found that exchange rate, inflation and crude oil prices exerted a detrimental effect on food prices. We recommend that governments of SSA countries invest in infrastructure that improves efficiencies in the food supply chain during pandemics. Providing adequate support to industries in the value chain will also improve food availability and food price stability post-COVID-19.
58 citations
Cites background from "The impacts of the Covid-19 pandemi..."
...Boukar et al. (2021) suggest that construction, education, hotels and restaurants and commerce sectors in Cameroon need special attention because of COVID‐19 induced job losses....
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TL;DR: In this article , the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic in the economic field, especially at the labor market level, has been analyzed, and the role played by the labour market and employability in mantling an optimal function at the social and economic level.
Abstract: This paper aims to identify several changes in the labor market structure in COVID-19 pandemic times. The context of the research is represented by the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic in the economic field, especially at the labor market level. This difficult situation could generate a negative impact in the sphere of traditional jobs and economic sectors. The main challenge for sustainable development in this new global situation is represented by human sustainability. Related to human sustainability, we emphasized the role played by the labor market and employability in mantling an optimal function at the social and economic level. For measuring the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the economic sphere, we used a quantitative design based on descriptive and inferential statistics. The research variables are represented by unemployment rates in the EU-28, employability rates, educational levels, gender, economic growth, labor mobility, material deprivation, economic freedom, and human development indicators. Empirical findings present the situation of a deep economic crisis generated by economic degrowth and by high levels of unemployment rates in the EU-28. Moreover, we have observed several predictors of employability in the new pandemic context as: material deprivation by age (in the field of young people), employment rate by education (tertiary education), and economic freedom. Another important finding is related to the gender perspective. Statistical correlations estimate a positive linear correlation between gender (women) and low rates of employability in the EU-28. All these empirical results could prove valuable for scholars interested in the relations between employability and sustainability and for political decision makers involved in the effort of reducing the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic within national and trans-national economic systems.
22 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on African economies and household welfare using a top-down sequential macro-micro simulation approach are studied.
Abstract: The paper studies the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on African economies and household welfare using a top-down sequential macro-micro simulation approach. The pandemic is modeled as a supply shock that disrupts economic activities of African countries and then affects households' consumption behavior, the level of their welfare, and businesses' investment decisions. The macroeconomic dynamic general equilibrium model is calibrated to account for informality, a key feature of African economies. We find that COVID-19 could diminish employment in the formal and informal sectors and contract consumption of non-savers and, especially, savers. These contractions would lead to an economic recession in Africa and widen both fiscal and current account deficits. Extreme poverty is expected to increase further in Africa, in particular if the welfare of the poorest households grows at lower rates. We also use the macroeconomic model to analyze the effects of different fiscal policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.
10 citations
TL;DR: In this paper , a multisector computable general equilibrium model of China with a micro-simulation approach was proposed to analyze the unequal effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on China's labour market and income inequality.
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic had an unequal impact on the employment and earnings of different labourers, consequently affecting households’ per capita income and income inequality. Combining a multisector computable general equilibrium model of China with a micro-simulation approach, this study aims to analyse the unequal effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on China’s labour market and income inequality. The results confirm the unequal impact of the pandemic on the employment and earnings of different labourer types. Labourers who are female, live in urban areas, and have relatively low education levels would suffer greater losses in employment and earnings. The pandemic would reduce household per capita income by 8.75% for rural residents and 6.13% for urban residents. While the pandemic would have a larger negative impact on the employment and earnings of urban labourers, it would have a greater negative impact on the household per capita income of rural residents. Moreover, the per capita income of low-income households is more vulnerable to the pandemic, and the number of residents living below the poverty line would increase significantly. Thus, the pandemic would aggravate income inequality in China and threaten the livelihoods of poor families. This study could inform researchers exploring the distributional effect of the COVID-19 pandemic in developing countries.
10 citations
TL;DR: In this article , the authors assess the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the long-term economic sustainability of Gulf economies, using illustrations from Kuwait using the economy-wide WAFRA Applied General Equilibrium (WAFRAGE) Model applied to Kuwait, and find that post-pandemic, the economic resiliency of these states has significantly waned, primarily because the pandemic hit during a state of weakened economic resilience following the 2014 oil price collapse and subsequent government response.
7 citations
References
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01 Jan 2020
TL;DR: In ieder geval tijdens symptomatische fase waarna virus nog langer met PCR aantoonbaar kan zijn in de keel/feces.
Abstract: Samenvatting Verwekker: Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 Besmettingsweg: Mens-op-mens-transmissie via directe druppelinfectie (hoesten en niezen) en aerosolen tijdens aerosolvormende handelingen Incubatietijd:2-14 dagen (gemiddeld 5-6 dagen) Besmettelijke periode:Nog niet volledig bekend. In ieder geval tijdens symptomatische fase waarna virus nog langer met PCR aantoonbaar kan zijn in de keel/feces Maatregelen: Meldingsplicht groep A; bronen contactonderzoek; isolatie en verdere maatregelen op indicatie Symptomen: Milde luchtwegklachten met koorts tot ernstige pneumonie en dyspnoe
2,806 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors simulate the potential impact of COVID-19 on gross domestic product and trade, using a standard global computable general equilibrium model, and show that the largest negative effect is experienced by domestic services affected by the pandemic.
Abstract: The virus that triggered a localized shock in China is now delivering a significant global shock. This study simulates the potential impact of COVID-19 on gross domestic product and trade, using a standard global computable general equilibrium model. It models the shock as underutilization of labor and capital, an increase in international trade costs, a drop in travel services, and a redirection of demand away from activities that require proximity between people. A baseline global pandemic scenario sees gross domestic product fall by 2 percent below the benchmark for the world, 2.5 percent for developing countries, and 1.8 percent for industrial countries. The declines are nearly 4 percent below the benchmark for the world, in an amplified pandemic scenario in which containment is assumed to take longer and which now seems more likely. The biggest negative shock is recorded in the output of domestic services affected by the pandemic, as well as in traded tourist services. Since the model does not capture fully the social isolation induced independent contraction in demand and the decline in investor confidence, the eventual economic impact may be different. This exercise is illustrative, because it is still too early to make an informed assessment of the full impact of the pandemic. But it does convey the likely extent of impending global economic pain, especially for developing countries and their potential need for assistance.
305 citations
"The impacts of the Covid-19 pandemi..." refers methods in this paper
...Maliszewska et al. (2020) have used CGEM to study the potential impacts of Covid‐19 on GDP and trade....
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TL;DR: This paper uses Bayesian model averaging techniques and country level data to investigate the potential of 35 determinants, describing a diverse set of socio-economic characteristics, in explaining the coronavirus pandemic outcome.
Abstract: The magnitude of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has an enormous impact on the social life and the economic activities in almost every country in the world. Besides the biological and epidemiological factors, a multitude of social and economic criteria also govern the extent of the coronavirus disease spread in the population. Consequently, there is an active debate regarding the critical socio-economic determinants that contribute to the resulting pandemic. In this paper, we contribute towards the resolution of the debate by leveraging Bayesian model averaging techniques and country level data to investigate the potential of 35 determinants, describing a diverse set of socio-economic characteristics, in explaining the coronavirus pandemic outcome.
73 citations
"The impacts of the Covid-19 pandemi..." refers background in this paper
...Beyond Cameroon, researchers have also investigated the social and economic factors influencing the spread of the coronavirus disease within a population (Stojkoski et al., 2020)....
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TL;DR: In this article, a theoretical framework was developed to examine the main obstacles to entrepreneurship in Africa's least developed countries (LDCs) by utilizing the flow approach to labor markets.
Abstract: In Africa's least developed countries (LDCs), escape from poverty and convergence to living standards of more advanced economies depends critically on structural transformation and the emergence of productive entrepreneurship that would accelerate growth and job creation. So far, however, subsistence agriculture has been the main source of employment in these countries, while a dynamic private sector in industry or high value-added services has remained elusive. Utilizing the flow approach to labor markets, this paper complements the empirical literature and numerous surveys on small and medium enterprise (SME) constraints and develops a theoretical framework that examines the main obstacles to entrepreneurship in Africa's LDCs. The paper posits that given the persistent frictions in product and labor markets as well as skill shortages that characterize these economies, development of productive entrepreneurship cannot be left to markets alone. The policy analysis suggests that the state has an important role to play. Well-targeted government interventions including training of potential entrepreneurs and workers can help to establish more modern and highly productive SME clusters that Africa's LDCs need.
61 citations
"The impacts of the Covid-19 pandemi..." refers background in this paper
...Brixiova (2010) shows that self‐employment in the informal sector is negatively related to skill acquisition; this explains low wages in this sector....
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...Brixiova (2010) shows that self‐employment in the informal sector is negatively related to skill acquisition; this explains low wages in this sector. 3 Jones and Tarp (2015) find that salaried formal sector workers are consistently better off than informal workers....
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine the evidence in Mozambique and show that crude distinctions between formality and informality are not illuminating, and the observed welfare advantage of formal sector workers essentially derives from differences in endowments and local conditions.
Abstract: Should policy-makers, including foreign donors, focus employment strategies in sub-Saharan Africa on strengthening access to formal wage employment or on raising productivity in the informal sector? We examine the evidence in Mozambique and show that crude distinctions between formality and informality are not illuminating. The observed welfare advantage of formal sector workers essentially derives from differences in endowments and local conditions. Non-agricultural informal work can yield higher returns than formal work. The implication is that the informal sector must not be marginalized; and raising productivity in agriculture must be accorded a central place in boosting employment.
59 citations
"The impacts of the Covid-19 pandemi..." refers background in this paper
...3 Jones and Tarp (2015) find that salaried formal sector workers are consistently better off than informal workers....
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