The Incapacitative Effect of Imprisonment: Some Estimates
TL;DR: The incapacitative effect of imprisonment has been extensively studied in the literature as discussed by the authors and it has been shown that physical segregation of prison inmates prevents them from engaging in some criminal activity during the period of their confinement.
Abstract: Recent research on the functions of imprisonment has begun to provide quantitative, empirical knowledge of its rehabilitative and deterrent effects.' Much less is known, however, about the incapacitative effect of imprisonment. While it has long been understood that the physical segregation of prison inmates prevents them from engaging in some criminal activity (as well as much non-criminal activity) during the period of their confinement, quantitative estimates of the size of this effect have been lacking.2 Leaving aside all deterrent or rehabilitative and counter-rehabilitative effects, it is of some interest to know whether
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01 Jul 1998
1,364Â citations
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TL;DR: A variety of theoretical, empirical, and policy issues have surfaced. as mentioned in this paper identified important methodological issues, including the relationship between past and future criminal activity, and potential explanations for this relationship: state dependence and persistent heterogeneity.
Abstract: Criminal careers have long occupied the imaginations of criminologists. Since the 1986 publication of the National Academy of Sciences report on criminal careers and career criminals, a variety of theoretical, empirical, and policy issues have surfaced. Data on key criminal career dimensions of prevalence, frequency, specialization, and desistance have raised theoretical questions regarding the patterning of criminal activity over the life course. Recent research has identified important methodological issues, including the relationship between past and future criminal activity, and potential explanations for this relationship: state dependence and persistent heterogeneity. Advanced statistical techniques have been developed to address these challenges. Criminal career research has identified important policy issues such as individual prediction of offending frequency and career duration, and has shifted the focus toward the interplay between risk and protective factors.
810Â citations
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01 Jan 2007TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a literature review of general criminal careers and organize around contentious issues, and discuss career length, age and incidence of co-offending, chronicity, and career length.
Abstract: 1. Introduction 2. Literature review: A. General criminal careers B. Organize around contentious issues 3. Data overview 4. Prevalence and incidence 5. Onset age and incidence 6. Specialization 7. Onset sequences 8. Co-offending 9. Chronicity 10. Offending trajectories 11. Career length 12. Discussion.
408Â citations
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10 Jul 2006TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present strategies for reducing recidivism and reducing crime, and assess the evidence for these strategies. But, they do not discuss the effectiveness of rehabilitation programs.
Abstract: Part I. Strategies for Reducing Crime: 1. Strategies for reducing recidivism 2. Assessing the evidence 3. Incapacitation 4. Perspectives on rehabilitation Part II. The Effectiveness of Rehabilitation Programs: 5. Academic education and life skills training 6. Vocational education, correctional industries and employment programs 7. Cognitive behavioral therapy programs Part III. Targeting Specific Types of Offenders: 8. Sex offender treatment 9. Juveniles 10. Domestic violence Part IV. Management and Treatment of Substance Abusers: 11. Drug courts 12. Outpatient and incarceration-based drug treatment Part V. Control, Discipline and Punishment: 13. Correctional boot camps 14. Intensive supervision and electronic monitoring Part VI. Conclusions: 15. What works?
386Â citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the impact of state prison populations on crime is typically estimated by applying the lambda, the individual crime rate, of prisoners or arrestees, and the result is an uncertain estimate of 16 to 25 index crimes averted per year per each additional prisoner.
Abstract: The impact of state prison populations on crime is typically estimated by applying the lambda, the individual crime rate, of prisoners or arrestees. We outline the problems with this approach, attempt to reanalyze the widely divergent lambdas derived in past research, and make adjustments necessary to use lambdas for estimating the incapacitation impact. The result is an uncertain estimate of 16 to 25 index crimes averted per year per each additional prisoner. We argue that regression analysis can provide a better estimate of the impact of prison population growth. Applying the Granger test to pooled state data over 19 years, we found that prison population growth leads to lower crime rates but that crime rate changes have little or no short-term impact on prison population growth. Next we regressed crime rates on prison population and conclude that, on average, at least 17 index crimes are averted per additional prisoner. The impact is limited mainly to property crime.
293Â citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, a theory of participation in illegitimate activities is developed and tested against data on variations in index crimes across states in the United States and behavioral implications are derived using the state preference approach to behavior under uncertainty.
Abstract: A theory of participation in illegitimate activities is developed and tested against data on variations in index crimes across states in the United States. Theorems and behavioral implications are derived using the state preference approach to behavior under uncertainty. The investigation deals directly with the interaction between offense and defense: crime and collective law enforcement. It indicates the existence of a deterrent effect of law-enforcement activity on all crimes and a strong positive correlation between income inequality and crimes against property. The empirical results also provide some tentative estimates of the effectiveness of law enforcement in reducing crime and the resulting social losses.
2,100Â citations
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TL;DR: In this article, a theory of participation in illegitimate activities is developed and tested against data on variations in index crimes across states in the United States and behavioral implications are derived using the state preference approach to behavior under uncertainty.
Abstract: A theory of participation in illegitimate activities is developed and tested against data on variations in index crimes across states in the United States. Theorems and behavioral implications are derived using the state preference approach to behavior under uncertainty. The investigation deals directly with the interaction between offense and defense: crime and collective law enforcement. It indicates the existence of a deterrent effect of law-enforcement activity on all crimes and a strong positive correlation between income inequality and crimes against property. The empirical results also provide some tentative estimates of the effectiveness of law enforcement in reducing crime and the resulting social losses.
1,871Â citations