The Key Role of Diabatic Outflow in Amplifying the Midlatitude Flow: a Representative Case Study of Weather Systems Surrounding Western North Pacific Extratropical Transition

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The Key Role of Diabatic Outflow in Amplifying the Midlatitude Flow: a Representative Case Study of Weather Systems Surrounding Western North Pacific Extratropical Transition

The Key Role of Diabatic Outflow in Amplifying the Midlatitude Flow: a Representative Case Study of Weather Systems Surrounding Western North Pacific Extratropical Transition

Heather M. Archambault¹•Institutions (1)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration¹

25 Jan 2017-

About: The article was published on 2017-01-25 and is currently open access. It has received 56 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Outflow & Extratropical cyclone.

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Journal Article•DOI•

Rossby Wave Packets on the Midlatitude Waveguide—A Review

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Volkmar Wirth¹, Michael Riemer¹, Edmund K. M. Chang², Olivia Martius³•Institutions (3)

University of Mainz¹, State University of New York System², Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research³

01 Jul 2018-Monthly Weather Review

TL;DR: In this paper, a review of the literature on upper-tropospheric transient wave packets along the midlatitude jet stream is presented, with an emphasis on developments during the last 15 years.

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Abstract: Rossby wave packets (RWPs) are Rossby waves for which the amplitude has a local maximum and decays to smaller values at larger distances. This review focuses on upper-tropospheric transient RWPs along the midlatitude jet stream. Their central characteristic is the propagation in the zonal direction as well as the transfer of wave energy from one individual trough or ridge to its downstream neighbor, a process called “downstream development.” These RWPs sometimes act as long-range precursors to extreme weather and presumably have an influence on the predictability of midlatitude weather systems. The paper reviews research progress in this area with an emphasis on developments during the last 15 years. The current state of knowledge is summarized including a discussion of the RWP life cycle as well as Rossby waveguides. Recent progress in the dynamical understanding of RWPs has been based, in part, on the development of diagnostic methods. These methods include algorithms to identify and track RWPs ...

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137 citations

Journal Article•DOI•

The North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment

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Andreas Schäfler¹, George C. Craig², Heini Wernli³, Philippe Arbogast⁴, James D. Doyle⁵, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, John Methven⁶, Gwendal Rivière⁷, Felix Ament⁸, Maxi Boettcher³, Martina Bramberger¹, Quitterie Cazenave, Richard Cotton⁹, Susanne Crewell, Julien Delanoë, Andreas Dörnbrack¹, André Ehrlich¹⁰, Florian Ewald¹, Andreas Fix¹, Christian M. Grams³, Suzanne L. Gray⁶, Hans Grob², Silke Groß¹, Martin Hagen¹, Ben Harvey⁶, Lutz Hirsch⁸, Marek Jacob, Tobias Kölling², Heike Konow⁸, Christian Lemmerz¹, Oliver Lux¹, Linus Magnusson¹¹, Bernhard Mayer², Mario Mech, Richard W. Moore¹², Jacques Pelon, Julian F. Quinting¹³, Stephan Rahm¹, Markus Rapp¹, Marc Rautenhaus¹⁴, Oliver Reitebuch¹, Carolyn A. Reynolds⁵, Harald Sodemann¹⁵, Thomas Spengler¹⁵, Geraint Vaughan¹⁶, Manfred Wendisch¹⁰, Martin Wirth¹, Benjamin Witschas¹, Kevin Wolf¹⁰, Tobias Zinner² - Show less +46 more•Institutions (16)

German Aerospace Center¹, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich², ETH Zurich³, Centre national de la recherche scientifique⁴, United States Naval Research Laboratory⁵, University of Reading⁶, PSL Research University⁷, Max Planck Society⁸, Met Office⁹, Leipzig University¹⁰, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts¹¹, Norwegian Meteorological Institute¹², Monash University, Clayton campus¹³, Technische Universität München¹⁴, Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen¹⁵, University of Manchester¹⁶

06 Sep 2018-Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

TL;DR: The North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX) explored the impact of diabatic processes on disturbances of the jet stream and their influence on downstream high-impact weather through the deployment of four research aircraft, each with a sophisticated set of remote-sensing and in situ instruments, and coordinated with a suite of ground-based measurements as discussed by the authors.

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Abstract: Multi-aircraft and ground-based observations were made over the North Atlantic in fall 2016 to investigate the importance of diabatic processes for midlatitude weather. The North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX) explored the impact of diabatic processes on disturbances of the jet stream and their influence on downstream high-impact weather through the deployment of four research aircraft, each with a sophisticated set of remote-sensing and in situ instruments, and coordinated with a suite of ground-based measurements. A total of 49 research flights were performed, including, for the first time, coordinated flights of the four aircraft; the German High Altitude and LOng Range Research Aircraft (HALO), the Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) Dassault Falcon 20, the French Service des Avions Francais Instrumentes pour la Recherche en Environnement (SAFIRE) Falcon 20, and the British Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe 146. The observation period from 17 Sep to 22 Oct 2016 with frequently occurring extratropical and tropical cyclones was ideal to investigate midlatitude weather over the North Atlantic. NAWDEX featured three sequences of upstream triggers of waveguide disturbances, their dynamic interaction with the jet stream, subsequent development, and eventual downstream weather impact on Europe. Examples are presented to highlight the wealth of phenomena that were sampled, the comprehensive coverage and the multi-faceted nature of the measurements. This unique dataset forms the basis for future case studies and detailed evaluations of weather and climate predictions to improve our understanding of diabatic influences on Rossby waves and downstream impact of weather systems affecting Europe.

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88 citations

Cites background from "The Key Role of Diabatic Outflow in..."

...If the outflow layer is higher, the negative PV anomaly is stronger and more of the air mass enters the anticyclonic branch of the WCB flowing into the downstream ridge (Grams and Archambault 2016)....
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Synoptic- and local-scale physical processes driving atmospheric river impacts on Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance

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Kyle S. Mattingly, Thomas L. Mote, Xavier Fettweis

01 Dec 2019

75 citations

Cites background from "The Key Role of Diabatic Outflow in..."

...and reinforcement of blocking patterns through diabatic latent heat release [Pfahl et al., 2015; Grams and Archambault, 2016; O’Reilly et al., 2016], and thus there may be mutually reinforcing dynamical linkages between cyclonic Rossby wave breaking, extratropical cyclones, ARs, and Greenland blocking, ultimately modulating GrIS mass loss....
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Journal Article•DOI•

An atmospheric dynamics perspective on the amplification and propagation of forecast error in numerical weather prediction models: A case study

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Christian M. Grams¹, Christian M. Grams², Linus Magnusson³, Erica Madonna⁴•Institutions (4)

ETH Zurich¹, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology², European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts³, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research⁴

01 Oct 2018-Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

65 citations

Cites background from "The Key Role of Diabatic Outflow in..."

...This amplification of the near-tropopause wave pattern can trigger downstream development of baroclinic Rossby wave packets (compare with Grams and Archambault, 2016)....
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...A similar impact of WCB outflow on an upstream cut-off formation occurred during the extratropical transition of Hurricane Hanna (2008: Grams et al. 2011). A more detailed investigation of this evolution showed that formation of the PV filament and its reabsorption were key in reconfiguring the lower troposphere and modulating WCB activity. In essence, a low-level baroclinic zone was strengthened and strong advection of warm moist air occurred ahead of the PV filament, which favoured vigorous poleward WCB ascent and outflow. In contrast, the baroclinic zone was weaker and more zonally oriented in the ensemble, resulting in an erroneous strengthening of the southern WCB branch. We conclude that, for the severe forecast bust in March 2016, WCB activity can be regarded as the dynamical link that amplifies initial condition error of the midlatitude flow strongly and propagates it into downstream regions. This is due to the three-dimensional structure of a WCB and its sensitivity to cloud diabatic processes. WCB ascent is highly sensitive to low-level baroclinicity, facilitating slantwise ascent, and to the availability of moisture in the inflow region (for example, Schäfler and Harnisch, 2015). Once condensation occurs, latent heat release triggers a nonlinear feedback that enhances WCB ascent and associated air-mass transport into the upper troposphere further. In turn, WCB outflow near the tropopause modifies the upper-level Rossby wave pattern and thus reconfigures the large-scale midlatitude flow. Hence, WCB activity can be regarded as an important physical–dynamical process that contributes to upscale error growth during the second stage of the conceptual error growth model by Zhang et al. (2007). The studies by Joos and Wernli (2012) and Joos and Forbes (2016) showed that WCB outflow is sensitive to the details of microphysical parametrizations. Selz and Craig (2015) reported that a misrepresentation of diabatic heating in convective parametrization schemes might lead to overconfident ensembles, as was the case for evolution of the southern WCB outflow branch in the study at hand....
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...A similar impact of WCB outflow on an upstream cut-off formation occurred during the extratropical transition of Hurricane Hanna (2008: Grams et al. 2011). A more detailed investigation of this evolution showed that formation of the PV filament and its reabsorption were key in reconfiguring the lower troposphere and modulating WCB activity. In essence, a low-level baroclinic zone was strengthened and strong advection of warm moist air occurred ahead of the PV filament, which favoured vigorous poleward WCB ascent and outflow. In contrast, the baroclinic zone was weaker and more zonally oriented in the ensemble, resulting in an erroneous strengthening of the southern WCB branch. We conclude that, for the severe forecast bust in March 2016, WCB activity can be regarded as the dynamical link that amplifies initial condition error of the midlatitude flow strongly and propagates it into downstream regions. This is due to the three-dimensional structure of a WCB and its sensitivity to cloud diabatic processes. WCB ascent is highly sensitive to low-level baroclinicity, facilitating slantwise ascent, and to the availability of moisture in the inflow region (for example, Schäfler and Harnisch, 2015). Once condensation occurs, latent heat release triggers a nonlinear feedback that enhances WCB ascent and associated air-mass transport into the upper troposphere further. In turn, WCB outflow near the tropopause modifies the upper-level Rossby wave pattern and thus reconfigures the large-scale midlatitude flow. Hence, WCB activity can be regarded as an important physical–dynamical process that contributes to upscale error growth during the second stage of the conceptual error growth model by Zhang et al. (2007). The studies by Joos and Wernli (2012) and Joos and Forbes (2016) showed that WCB outflow is sensitive to the details of microphysical parametrizations....
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Journal Article•DOI•

The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones. Part II: Interaction with the Midlatitude Flow, Downstream Impacts, and Implications for Predictability

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Julia H. Keller¹, Julia H. Keller², Christian M. Grams³, Christian M. Grams⁴, Michael Riemer⁵, Heather M. Archambault⁶, Lance F. Bosart⁷, James D. Doyle⁸, Jenni L. Evans⁹, Thomas J. Galarneau¹⁰, Kyle S. Griffin, Patrick A. Harr¹¹, Naoko Kitabatake¹², Ron McTaggart-Cowan, Florian Pantillon³, Julian F. Quinting¹³, Julian F. Quinting³, Carolyn A. Reynolds⁸, Elizabeth A. Ritchie¹⁴, Ryan D. Torn⁷, Fuqing Zhang⁹ - Show less +17 more•Institutions (14)

Deutscher Wetterdienst¹, United Nations², Karlsruhe Institute of Technology³, ETH Zurich⁴, University of Mainz⁵, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory⁶, University at Albany, SUNY⁷, United States Naval Research Laboratory⁸, Pennsylvania State University⁹, University of Arizona¹⁰, Naval Postgraduate School¹¹, Meteorological College¹², Monash University¹³, University of New South Wales¹⁴

01 Apr 2019-Monthly Weather Review

TL;DR: The extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones often has an important impact on the nature and predictability of the midlatitude flow of the tropical cyclone as discussed by the authors.

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Abstract: The extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones often has an important impact on the nature and predictability of the midlatitude flow. This review synthesizes the current understand...

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58 citations

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Journal Article•DOI•

The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system

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Dick Dee¹, S. Uppala¹, Adrian Simmons¹, Paul Berrisford¹, Paul Poli¹, Shinya Kobayashi², Ulf Andrae³, Magdalena Balmaseda¹, Gianpaolo Balsamo¹, Peter Bauer¹, Peter Bechtold¹, Anton Beljaars¹, L. van de Berg, Jean Bidlot¹, Niels Bormann¹, C. Delsol¹, Rossana Dragani¹, Manuel Fuentes¹, Alan J. Geer¹, Leopold Haimberger⁴, Sean Healy¹, Hans Hersbach¹, Elías Hólm¹, Lars Isaksen¹, P. Kallberg³, Martin Köhler¹, Marco Matricardi¹, A. P. McNally¹, B. M. Monge-Sanz⁵, Jean-Jacques Morcrette¹, B.-K. Park⁶, Carole Peubey¹, P. de Rosnay¹, Christina Tavolato⁴, Jean-Noël Thépaut¹, Frederic Vitart¹ - Show less +32 more•Institutions (6)

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts¹, Japan Meteorological Agency², Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute³, University of Vienna⁴, University of Leeds⁵, Korea Meteorological Administration⁶

01 Apr 2011-Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

TL;DR: ERA-Interim as discussed by the authors is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century.

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Abstract: ERA-Interim is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The ERA-Interim project was conducted in part to prepare for a new atmospheric reanalysis to replace ERA-40, which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century. This article describes the forecast model, data assimilation method, and input datasets used to produce ERA-Interim, and discusses the performance of the system. Special emphasis is placed on various difficulties encountered in the production of ERA-40, including the representation of the hydrological cycle, the quality of the stratospheric circulation, and the consistency in time of the reanalysed fields. We provide evidence for substantial improvements in each of these aspects. We also identify areas where further work is needed and describe opportunities and objectives for future reanalysis projects at ECMWF. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

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22,055 citations

"The Key Role of Diabatic Outflow in..." refers methods in this paper

...For surface parameters not available from CFSR in the layers needed for COSMO (skin and sea surface temperature, soil temperature, soil moisture, snow depth, snow layer temperature), ERAInterim (Dee et al. 2011) data for monthly means at the synoptic times are used....
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Journal Article•DOI•

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

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Suranjana Saha¹, Shrinivas Moorthi, Hua-Lu Pan, Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Patrick Tripp, Robert Kistler, John S. Woollen, David Behringer, Haixia Liu, Diane Stokes, Robert Grumbine, George Gayno, Jun Wang, Yu-Tai Hou, Hui-ya Chuang, Hann-Ming Henry Juang, Joe Sela, Mark Iredell, Russ Treadon, Daryl T. Kleist, Paul van Delst, Dennis Keyser, John Derber, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Rongqian Yang, Stephen J. Lord, Huug van den Dool, Arun Kumar, Wanqiu Wang, Craig S. Long, Muthuvel Chelliah, Yan Xue, Boyin Huang, Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Roger Lin, Pingping Xie, Mingyue Chen, Shuntai Zhou, Wayne Higgins, Cheng-Zhi Zou, Quanhua Liu, Yong Chen, Yong Han, Lidia Cucurull, Richard W. Reynolds, Glenn Rutledge, Mitch Goldberg - Show less +48 more•Institutions (1)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration¹

01 Aug 2010-Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

TL;DR: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010 as mentioned in this paper, which was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice system to provide the best estimate of the state of these coupled domains over this period.

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Abstract: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean–land surface–sea ice system to provide the best estimate of the state of these coupled domains over this period. The current CFSR will be extended as an operational, real-time product into the future. New features of the CFSR include 1) coupling of the atmosphere and ocean during the generation of the 6-h guess field, 2) an interactive sea ice model, and 3) assimilation of satellite radiances by the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) scheme over the entire period. The CFSR global atmosphere resolution is ~38 km (T382) with 64 levels extending from the surface to 0.26 hPa. The global ocean's latitudinal spacing is 0.25° at the equator, extending to a global 0.5° beyond the tropics, with 40 levels to a depth of 4737 m. The global land surface model has four soil levels and the global sea ice m...

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4,520 citations

"The Key Role of Diabatic Outflow in..." refers methods in this paper

...This study is based on 6-hourly NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR; Saha et al. 2010) data, which are used to construct composites of selected recurving western North Pacific strong interaction ET cases and which serve as the initial and boundary condition data for numerical simulations…...
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Journal Article•DOI•

A Comprehensive Mass Flux Scheme for Cumulus Parameterization in Large-Scale Models

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M. Tiedtke¹•Institutions (1)

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts¹

01 Aug 1989-Monthly Weather Review

TL;DR: In this paper, a simple spectral cloud ensemble was proposed to provide realistic values of the thermal forcing by convection under various synoptic conditions, such as tropical penetrative convection, tradewind cumuli, and extratropical organized convection.

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Abstract: Observational studies indicate that a mass flux approach may provide a realistic framework for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models, but this approach, through the introduction of a spectral cloud ensemble, leads normally to rather complex schemes. In this paper the question is addressed whether much simpler schemes can already provide realistic values of the thermal forcing by convection under various synoptic conditions. This is done through verifying such a scheme first on data from field experiments for periods of tropical penetrative convection (GATE, Marshall Islands), tradewind cumuli (ATEX, BOMEX) and extratropical organized convection (SESAME-79) and then in a NWP model. The scheme considers a population of clouds where the cloud ensemble is described by a one-dimensional bulk model as earlier applied by Yanai et al. in a diagnostic study of tropical convection. Cumulus scale downdrafts are included. Various types of convection are represented, i.e., penetrative convection in c...

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3,296 citations

"The Key Role of Diabatic Outflow in..." refers methods in this paper

...The additional simulations are run: a control simulation using a Tiedtke mass flux scheme (Tiedtke 1989) for the representation of moist convection (control Tiedtke), one using the Tiedtke scheme for shallow clouds only (control shallow), one with convective parameterization completely…...
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Book Chapter•DOI•

Convective parameterization for mesoscale models : The Kain-Fritsch Scheme

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John S. Kain¹, J. Michael Fritsch¹•Institutions (1)

Pennsylvania State University¹

01 Jan 1993

TL;DR: The Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme (CPS) is based on the same fundamental closure assumption as the Fritsch-Chappell (FC) (1980) scheme as mentioned in this paper.

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Abstract: The Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme (CPS) is based on the same fundamental closure assumption as the Fritsch-Chappell (FC) (1980) scheme—convective effects are assumed to remove convective available potential energy in a grid element within an advective time period. Its development was motivated by ongoing observational and numerical investigations of mesoscale convective systems that have revealed the potentially significant impact of certain physical processes that were not represented in the FC scheme. For example, in the FC scheme, detrainment from convective clouds to their environment occurs over a limited vertical depth near cloud top. Yet, it has become evident from diagnostic studies (e.g., Leary and Houze 1980; Gamache and Houze 1983) that midlevel detrainment of mass and moisture from deep convective clouds plays an important role in the development of some mesoscale convective systems.

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1,789 citations

"The Key Role of Diabatic Outflow in..." refers methods in this paper

...In adaptation to the investigation of ET on large domains we use a Kain–Fritsch scheme (Kain and Fritsch 1993) for the representation of moist convection and a Kessler-type bulk microphysics scheme (Kessler 1969) with six categories of water includingwater vapor, cloudwater, rain, snow, cloud ice, and graupel....
[...]
...In adaptation to the investigation of ET on large domains we use a Kain–Fritsch scheme (Kain and Fritsch 1993) for the representation of moist convection and a Kessler-type bulk microphysics scheme (Kessler 1969) with six categories of water includingwater vapor, cloudwater, rain, snow, cloud ice,…...
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Book Chapter•DOI•

On the distribution and continuity of water substance in atmospheric circulations

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Edwin Kessler

01 Jan 1969-Meteorological Monographs

TL;DR: In this paper, the conservation and distribution of water substance in atmospheric circulations are considered within a frame of continuity principles, model air flows, and models of microphysical processes, where the simplest considerations of precipitation involve its vertical distribution in an updraft column, where condensate appears immediately as precipitation with uniform terminal fallspeed.

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Abstract: The conservation and distribution of water substance in atmospheric circulations is considered within a frame of continuity principles, model air flows, and models of microphysical processes. The simplest considerations of precipitation involve its vertical distribution in an updraft column, where condensate appears immediately as precipitation with uniform terminal fallspeed. The study also treats steady two-dimensional air circulations in which time-dependent distributions of water vapor, cloud and precipitation respond to model microphysical processes.

...read moreread less

1,572 citations

"The Key Role of Diabatic Outflow in..." refers methods in this paper

...In adaptation to the investigation of ET on large domains we use a Kain–Fritsch scheme (Kain and Fritsch 1993) for the representation of moist convection and a Kessler-type bulk microphysics scheme (Kessler 1969) with six categories of water includingwater vapor, cloudwater, rain, snow, cloud ice, and graupel....
[...]
...…to the investigation of ET on large domains we use a Kain–Fritsch scheme (Kain and Fritsch 1993) for the representation of moist convection and a Kessler-type bulk microphysics scheme (Kessler 1969) with six categories of water includingwater vapor, cloudwater, rain, snow, cloud ice, and graupel....
[...]