The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century
Oliver Fricko1, Petr Havlik1, Joeri Rogelj1, Zbigniew Klimont1, Mykola Gusti1, Mykola Gusti2, Nils Johnson1, Peter Kolp1, M. Strubegger1, Hugo Valin1, Markus Amann1, Tatiana Ermolieva1, Nicklas Forsell1, Mario Herrero3, Chris Heyes1, Georg Kindermann1, Volker Krey1, David L. McCollum1, Michael Obersteiner1, Shonali Pachauri1, Shilpa Rao1, Erwin Schmid, Wolfgang Schoepp1, Keywan Riahi4, Keywan Riahi1 •
TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide background on the quantification that has been selected to serve as the reference, or "marker" implementation for SSP2 and explain how the narrative has been translated into quantitative assumptions in the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework.
Abstract: Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantification that has been selected to serve as the reference, or ‘marker’, implementation for SSP2. The SSP2 narrative describes a middle-of-the-road development in the mitigation and adaptation challenges space. We explain how the narrative has been translated into quantitative assumptions in the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework . We show that our SSP2 marker implementation occupies a central position for key metrics along the mitigation and adaptation challenge dimensions. For many dimensions the SSP2 marker implementation also reflects an extension of the historical experience, particularly in terms of carbon and energy intensity improvements in its baseline. This leads to a steady emissions increase over the 21st century, with projected end-of-century warming nearing 4 °C relative to preindustrial levels. On the other hand, SSP2 also shows that global-mean temperature increase can be limited to below 2 °C, pending stringent climate policies throughout the world. The added value of the SSP2 marker implementation for the wider scientific community is that it can serve as a starting point to further explore integrated solutions for achieving multiple societal objectives in light of the climate adaptation and mitigation challenges that society could face over the 21st century.
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Keywan Riahi1, Detlef P. van Vuuren2, Elmar Kriegler3, Jae Edmonds4, Brian C. O'Neill5, Shinichiro Fujimori6, Nico Bauer3, Katherine Calvin4, Rob Dellink7, Oliver Fricko1, Wolfgang Lutz1, Alexander Popp3, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma1, Samir Kc8, Samir Kc1, Marian Leimbach3, Leiwen Jiang5, Tom Kram2, Shilpa Rao1, Johannes Emmerling9, Kristie L. Ebi10, Tomoko Hasegawa6, Petr Havlik1, Florian Humpenöder3, Lara Aleluia Da Silva9, Steve Smith4, Elke Stehfest2, Valentina Bosetti9, Valentina Bosetti11, Jiyong Eom4, Jiyong Eom12, David E.H.J. Gernaat2, Toshihiko Masui6, Joeri Rogelj1, Jessica Strefler3, Laurent Drouet9, Volker Krey1, Gunnar Luderer3, Mathijs Harmsen2, Kiyoshi Takahashi6, Lavinia Baumstark3, Jonathan C. Doelman2, Mikiko Kainuma6, Zbigniew Klimont1, Giacomo Marangoni9, Hermann Lotze-Campen3, Hermann Lotze-Campen13, Michael Obersteiner1, Andrzej Tabeau14, Massimo Tavoni9, Massimo Tavoni15 •
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis1, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency2, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research3, Joint Global Change Research Institute4, National Center for Atmospheric Research5, National Institute for Environmental Studies6, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development7, Shanghai University8, Eni9, University of Washington10, Bocconi University11, KAIST12, Humboldt University of Berlin13, Wageningen University and Research Centre14, Polytechnic University of Milan15
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications, and find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socioeconomic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target.
Abstract: This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO 2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO 2 to more than 120 GtCO 2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m 2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).
2,644 citations
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss leading problems linked to energy that the world is now confronting and propose some ideas concerning possible solutions, and conclude that it is necessary to pursue actively the development of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power.
Abstract: This chapter discusses leading problems linked to energy that the world is now confronting and to propose some ideas concerning possible solutions. Oil deserves special attention among all energy sources. Since the beginning of 1981, it has merely been continuing and enhancing the downward movement in consumption and prices caused by excessive rises, especially for light crudes such as those from Africa, and the slowing down of worldwide economic growth. Densely-populated oil-producing countries need to produce to live, to pay for their food and their equipment. If the economic growth of the industrialized countries were to be 4%, even if investment in the rational use of energy were pushed to the limit and the development of nonpetroleum energy sources were also pursued actively, it would be extremely difficult to prevent a sharp rise in prices. It is evident that it is absolutely necessary to pursue actively the development of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power if a physical shortage of energy is not to block economic growth.
2,283 citations
Joeri Rogelj1, Joeri Rogelj2, Alexander Popp3, Katherine Calvin4, Gunnar Luderer3, Johannes Emmerling5, David E.H.J. Gernaat6, David E.H.J. Gernaat7, Shinichiro Fujimori8, Shinichiro Fujimori2, Jessica Strefler3, Tomoko Hasegawa8, Tomoko Hasegawa2, Giacomo Marangoni5, Volker Krey2, Elmar Kriegler3, Keywan Riahi2, Detlef P. van Vuuren7, Detlef P. van Vuuren6, Jonathan C. Doelman6, Laurent Drouet5, Jae Edmonds4, Oliver Fricko2, Mathijs Harmsen7, Mathijs Harmsen6, Petr Havlik2, Florian Humpenöder3, Elke Stehfest6, Massimo Tavoni9, Massimo Tavoni5 •
ETH Zurich1, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis2, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research3, Joint Global Change Research Institute4, Eni5, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency6, Utrecht University7, National Institute for Environmental Studies8, Polytechnic University of Milan9
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 Wm−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 W m−2.
Abstract: The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.
733 citations
Arnulf Grubler1, Charlie Wilson1, Charlie Wilson2, Nuno Bento3, Nuno Bento1, Benigna Boza-Kiss1, Volker Krey1, David L. McCollum1, Narasimha D. Rao1, Keywan Riahi4, Keywan Riahi5, Keywan Riahi1, Joeri Rogelj6, Joeri Rogelj1, Simon De Stercke1, Simon De Stercke6, Jonathan M. Cullen7, Stefan Frank1, Oliver Fricko1, Fei Guo1, Matthew Gidden1, Petr Havlik1, Daniel Huppmann1, Gregor Kiesewetter1, Peter Rafaj1, Wolfgang Schoepp1, Hugo Valin1 •
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand and showed how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use).
Abstract: Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies. Achieving sustainable development goals while meeting the 1.5 °C climate target requires radical changes to how we use energy. A scenario of low energy demand shows how this can be done by down-sizing the global energy system to enable feasible deployment rates of renewable energy resources.
680 citations
References
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Richard H. Moss1, Jae Edmonds1, Kathy Hibbard2, Martin R. Manning3, Steven K. Rose4, Detlef P. van Vuuren5, Timothy R. Carter6, Seita Emori7, Mikiko Kainuma7, Tom Kram5, Gerald A. Meehl2, John F. B. Mitchell8, Nebojsa Nakicenovic9, Nebojsa Nakicenovic10, Keywan Riahi9, Steven J. Smith1, Ronald J. Stouffer11, Allison M. Thomson1, John P. Weyant12, Thomas J. Wilbanks13 •
Joint Global Change Research Institute1, National Center for Atmospheric Research2, Victoria University of Wellington3, Electric Power Research Institute4, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency5, Finnish Environment Institute6, National Institute for Environmental Studies7, Met Office8, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis9, Vienna University of Technology10, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration11, Stanford University12, Oak Ridge National Laboratory13
TL;DR: A new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community is described.
Abstract: Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.
5,670 citations
"The marker quantification of the Sh..." refers methods in this paper
...Together with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) from a few years earlier (Moss et al., 2010; van Vuuren et al., 2012), they provide a toolkit for the climate change research community to carry out integrated, multi-disciplinary analysis....
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Tami C. Bond1, Sarah J. Doherty2, David W. Fahey3, Piers M. Forster4, Terje Koren Berntsen5, Benjamin DeAngelo6, Mark Flanner7, Steven J. Ghan8, Bernd Kärcher9, Dorothy Koch10, Stefan Kinne11, Yutaka Kondo12, Patricia K. Quinn13, Marcus C. Sarofim6, Martin G. Schultz14, Michael Schulz15, Chandra Venkataraman16, Hua Zhang17, Shiqiu Zhang18, Nicolas Bellouin19, Sarath K. Guttikunda20, Philip K. Hopke21, Mark Z. Jacobson22, Johannes W. Kaiser23, Zbigniew Klimont24, Ulrike Lohmann, Joshua P. Schwarz3, Drew Shindell25, Trude Storelvmo26, Stephen G. Warren27, Charles S. Zender28 •
University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign1, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean2, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences3, University of Leeds4, University of Oslo5, United States Environmental Protection Agency6, University of Michigan7, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory8, German Aerospace Center9, United States Department of Energy10, Max Planck Society11, University of Tokyo12, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration13, Forschungszentrum Jülich14, Norwegian Meteorological Institute15, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay16, China Meteorological Administration17, Peking University18, Met Office19, Desert Research Institute20, Clarkson University21, Stanford University22, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts23, International Institute of Minnesota24, Goddard Institute for Space Studies25, Yale University26, University of Washington27, University of California, Irvine28
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provided an assessment of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice.
Abstract: Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr−1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m−2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m−2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m−2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m−2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m−2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m−2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.
4,591 citations
Malte Meinshausen1, Malte Meinshausen2, Steven J. Smith3, Katherine Calvin3, John S. Daniel4, Mikiko Kainuma5, Jean-Francois Lamarque6, Ken'ichi Matsumoto7, Ken'ichi Matsumoto5, Stephen A. Montzka4, Sarah C. B. Raper8, Keywan Riahi9, Allison M. Thomson3, Guus J. M. Velders, D.P. van Vuuren10, D.P. van Vuuren11 •
University of Melbourne1, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research2, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory3, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration4, National Institute for Environmental Studies5, National Center for Atmospheric Research6, University of Shiga Prefecture7, Manchester Metropolitan University8, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis9, Utrecht University10, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency11
TL;DR: In this article, the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended ConcentrationPathways (ECPs), are presented.
Abstract: We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs). These projections include all major anthropogenic greenhouse gases and are a result of a multi-year effort to produce new scenarios for climate change research. We combine a suite of atmospheric concentration observations and emissions estimates for greenhouse gases (GHGs) through the historical period (1750-2005) with harmonized emissions projected by four different Integrated Assessment Models for 2005-2100. As concentrations are somewhat dependent on the future climate itself (due to climate feedbacks in the carbon and other gas cycles), we emulate median response characteristics of models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report using the reduced-complexity carbon cycle climate model MAGICC6. Projected 'best-estimate' global-mean surface temperature increases (using inter alia a climate sensitivity of 3°C) range from 1.5°C by 2100 for the lowest of the four RCPs, called both RCP3-PD and RCP2.6, to 4.5°C for the highest one, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels. Beyond 2100, we present the ECPs that are simple extensions of the RCPs, based on the assumption of either smoothly stabilizing concentrations or constant emissions: For example,
3,144 citations
"The marker quantification of the Sh..." refers background or methods in this paper
...…air , global annual-mean surface air temperature, and ocean-heat ion, energy-balance model, which produces outputs for global- deterministic setup (Meinshausen et al., 2011b), but also a with the IIASA IAM framework (Rogelj et al., 2013a; Rogelj et al., cycle are accounted for through the…...
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...Finally, the combined results for land use, energy, and industrial emissions from MESSAGE and GLOBIOM are merged and fed into MAGICC, a global carbon-cycle and climate model, which then provides estimates of the climate implications in terms of atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing, and global-mean temperature increase....
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...It AGE (see Table S3). ate drivers is modelled with the MAGICC model (Model for the a reduced-complexity coupled global climate and carbon cycle ons of GHGs and other atmospheric climate drivers like air , global annual-mean surface air temperature, and ocean-heat ion, energy-balance model, which produces outputs for global- deterministic setup (Meinshausen et al., 2011b), but also a with the IIASA IAM framework (Rogelj et al., 2013a; Rogelj et al., cycle are accounted for through the interactive coupling of the tion of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road p://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.004 Fig....
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...MAGICC is an upwelling-diffus and hemispheric-mean temperature....
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...When assessed with the RCP tuning of MAGICC (Meinshausen et al., 2011b), the total anthropogenic radiative forcing for the baseline developments of SSP1, SSP2, and SSP3 is estimated to amount to 5.5, 6.5, and 8.1 W/m2 in 2100 (Table 2)....
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