The peak structure and future changes of the relationships between extreme precipitation and temperature
TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that the curve relating daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing as expected at the low medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures.
Abstract: Theoretical models predict that, in the absence of moisture limitation, extreme precipitation intensity could exponentially increase with temperatures at a rate determined by the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship. Climate models project a continuous increase of precipitation extremes for the twenty-first century over most of the globe. However, some station observations suggest a negative scaling of extreme precipitation with very high temperatures, raising doubts about future increase of precipitation extremes. Here we show for the present-day climate over most of the globe,the curve relating daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing as expected at the low medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. However, this peak-shaped relationship does not imply a potential upper limit for future precipitation extremes. Climate models project both the peak of extreme precipitation and the temperature at which it peaks (T(sub peak)) will increase with warming; the two increases generally conform to the C-C scaling rate in mid- and high-latitudes,and to a super C-C scaling in most of the tropics. Because projected increases of local mean temperature (T(sub mean)) far exceed projected increases of T(sub peak) over land, the conventional approach of relating extreme precipitation to T(sub mean) produces a misleading sub-C-C scaling rate.
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TL;DR: Against the backdrop of a declining monsoon, the number of extreme rain events is on the rise over central India, driven by an increasing variability of the low-level monsoon westerlies over the Arabian Sea.
Abstract: Socioeconomic challenges continue to mount for half a billion residents of central India because of a decline in the total rainfall and a concurrent rise in the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. Alongside a weakening monsoon circulation, the locally available moisture and the frequency of moisture-laden depressions from the Bay of Bengal have also declined. Here we show that despite these negative trends, there is a threefold increase in widespread extreme rain events over central India during 1950–2015. The rise in these events is due to an increasing variability of the low-level monsoon westerlies over the Arabian Sea, driving surges of moisture supply, leading to extreme rainfall episodes across the entire central subcontinent. The homogeneity of these severe weather events and their association with the ocean temperatures underscores the potential predictability of these events by two-to-three weeks, which offers hope in mitigating their catastrophic impact on life, agriculture and property. Against the backdrop of a declining monsoon, the number of extreme rain events is on the rise over central India. Here the authors identify a threefold increase in widespread extreme rains over the region during 1950–2015, driven by an increasing variability of the low-level westerlies over the Arabian Sea.
362 citations
TL;DR: Papalexiou et al. as mentioned in this paper performed a global analysis of 12 8730 daily precipitation records focusing on the 1964-2013 period when the global warming accelerates, and introduced a novel analysis of the N largest extremes in records having N complete years within the study period.
Abstract: Simon Michael Papalexiou1,2 and Alberto Montanari3 2 1Department of Civil, Geological and Environmental Engineering, University of 3 Saskatchewan, Canada 4 2Global Institute for Water Security 5 3University of Bologna, DICAM, Bologna, Italy 6 7 Global warming is expected to change the regime of extreme precipitation. Physical laws 8 translate increasing atmospheric heat into increasing atmospheric water content that 9 drives precipitation changes. Within the literature, general agreement is that extreme 10 precipitation is changing, yet different assessment methods, datasets, and study periods, 11 may result in different patterns and rates of change. Here we perform a global analysis of 12 8730 daily precipitation records focusing on the 1964-2013 period when the global 13 warming accelerates. We introduce a novel analysis of the N largest extremes in records 14 having N complete years within the study period. Based on these extremes, which 15 represent more accurately heavy precipitation than annual maxima, we form time series of 16 their annual frequency and mean annual magnitude. The analysis offers new insights and 17 reveals: (1) global and zonal increasing trends in the frequency of extremes that are highly 18 unlikely under the assumption of stationarity, and (2) magnitude changes that are not as 19 evident. Frequency changes reveal a coherent spatial pattern with increasing trends being 20 detected in large parts of Eurasia, North Australia, and the Midwestern United States. 21 Globally, over the last decade of the studied period we find 7% more extreme events than 22 the expected number. Finally, we report that changes in magnitude are not in general 23 correlated with changes in frequency. 24
310 citations
Cites background from "The peak structure and future chang..."
...The Clausius‐Clapeyron equation dictates a 7% increase in atmospheric capacity to hold water for every 1 °C temperature increase (e.g., Pall et al., 2007; G. Wang et al., 2017)....
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01 Dec 2016
TL;DR: In this article, the authors use the intensification of heavy precipitation as a counterexample, where seemingly complex and potentially computationally intractable processes manifest themselves to first order in simple ways.
Abstract: It has been predicted, by theory and models, that heavy precipitation will increase with climate change and this is now being seen in observations. Emergence of signals such as this will enable testing of predictions, which should increase confidence in them. Environmental phenomena are often observed first, and then explained quantitatively. The complexity of processes, the range of scales involved, and the lack of first principles make it challenging to predict conditions beyond the ones observed. Here we use the intensification of heavy precipitation as a counterexample, where seemingly complex and potentially computationally intractable processes manifest themselves to first order in simple ways: heavy precipitation intensification is now emerging in the observed record across many regions of the world, confirming both theory and model predictions made decades ago. As the anthropogenic climate signal strengthens, there will be more opportunities to test climate predictions for other variables against observations and across a hierarchy of different models and theoretical concepts.
250 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss the threats posed by climate extremes to human health, economic stability, and the well-being of natural and built environments (e.g., 2003 European heat wave).
Abstract: Climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and the well-being of natural and built environments (e.g., 2003 European heat wave). As the world continues to warm, climate hazards are...
247 citations
Cites background from "The peak structure and future chang..."
...Wang et al. (2017) have shown that extreme precipitation and high temperatures can exhibit a negative relationship after exceeding a given temperature threshold....
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...This is reflected in physical laws, and more specifically, the Clausius–Clapeyron relation indicates that the atmosphere can hold 7% more water for every 1°C temperature increase (e.g., Pall et al. 2007, Wang et al. 2017); this increase, however, is not expected to be uniform across the globe....
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01 Apr 2015
TL;DR: In this article, the authors employ a convection-resolving model using a horizontal grid spacing of 2.2 km across an extended region covering the Alps and its larger-scale surrounding from northern Italy to northern Germany, and find that both extreme day-long and hour-long precipitation events asymptotically intensify with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation.
Abstract: Climate models project that heavy precipitation events intensify with climate change. It is generally accepted that extreme day-long events will increase at a rate of about 6–7% per degree warming, consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, recent studies suggest that subdaily (e.g., hourly) precipitation extremes may increase at about twice this rate. Conventional climate models are not suited to assess such events, due to the limited spatial resolution and the need to parametrize convective precipitation (i.e., thunderstorms and rain showers). Here we employ a convection-resolving model using a horizontal grid spacing of 2.2 km across an extended region covering the Alps and its larger-scale surrounding from northern Italy to northern Germany. Consistent with previous results, projections using a Representative Concentration Pathways version 8.5 greenhouse gas scenario reveal a significant decrease of mean summer precipitation. However, unlike previous studies, we find that both extreme day-long and hour-long precipitation events asymptotically intensify with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Differences to previous studies might be due to the model or region considered, but we also show that it is inconsistent to extrapolate from present-day precipitation scaling into the future.
241 citations
References
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01 Jan 2007
TL;DR: The first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report as mentioned in this paper was published in 2007 and covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
Abstract: This report is the first volume of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report. It covers several topics including the extensive range of observations now available for the atmosphere and surface, changes in sea level, assesses the paleoclimatic perspective, climate change causes both natural and anthropogenic, and climate models for projections of global climate.
32,826 citations
TL;DR: ERA-Interim as discussed by the authors is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century.
Abstract: ERA-Interim is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The ERA-Interim project was conducted in part to prepare for a new atmospheric reanalysis to replace ERA-40, which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century. This article describes the forecast model, data assimilation method, and input datasets used to produce ERA-Interim, and discusses the performance of the system. Special emphasis is placed on various difficulties encountered in the production of ERA-40, including the representation of the hydrological cycle, the quality of the stratospheric circulation, and the consistency in time of the reanalysed fields. We provide evidence for substantial improvements in each of these aspects. We also identify areas where further work is needed and describe opportunities and objectives for future reanalysis projects at ECMWF. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
22,055 citations
01 Jan 2013
TL;DR: In this paper, a summary of issues to assist policymakers, a technical summary, and a list of frequently-asked questions are presented, with an emphasis on physical science issues.
Abstract: Report summarizing climate change issues in 2013, with an emphasis on physical science. It includes a summary of issues to assist policymakers, a technical summary, and a list of frequently-asked questions.
7,858 citations
TL;DR: Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed.
Abstract: One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur. Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed. Model output has been analyzed that shows changes in extreme events for future climates, such as increases in extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures, and increases in intense precipitation events. In addition, the societal infrastructure is becoming more sensitive to weather and climate extremes, which would be exacerbated by climate change. In wild plants and animals, climate-induced extinctions, distributional and phenological changes, and species' range shifts are being documented at an increasing rate. Several apparently gradual biological changes are linked to responses to extreme weather and climate events.
4,379 citations
TL;DR: In this article, precipitation intensity, duration, frequency, and phase are as much of concern as total amounts, as these factors determine the disposition of precipitation once it hits the ground and how much runs off.
Abstract: From a societal, weather, and climate perspective, precipitation intensity, duration, frequency, and phase are as much of concern as total amounts, as these factors determine the disposition of precipitation once it hits the ground and how much runs off. At the extremes of precipitation incidence are the events that give rise to floods and droughts, whose changes in occurrence and severity have an enormous impact on the environment and society. Hence, advancing understanding and the ability to model and predict the character of precipitation is vital but requires new approaches to examining data and models. Various mechanisms, storms and so forth, exist to bring about precipitation. Because the rate of precipitation, conditional on when it falls, greatly exceeds the rate of replenishment of moisture by surface evaporation, most precipitation comes from moisture already in the atmosphere at the time the storm begins, and transport of moisture by the storm-scale circulation into the storm is vital....
2,526 citations