The reliability of real-time estimates of the euro area output gap
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TLDR
In this article, the reliability of real-time estimates of the euro area output gap has been investigated and it was shown that the uncertainty is mostly due to parameter instability and model uncertainty, while data revisions seem to play a minor role.About:
This article is published in Economic Modelling.The article was published on 2011-07-01 and is currently open access. It has received 80 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Output gap.read more
Figures
Table 6 – US output gap summary statistics 
Table 2 – Euro area output gap summary statistics 
Table 3 – Pseudo real time estimates of the euro area output gap 
Table 7 – Pseudo real time estimates of the US output gap 
Table 4 – Revisions to real time euro area output gap estimates 
Table 8 – Revisions to real time US output gap estimates
Citations
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Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability
TL;DR: This paper argued that monetary policy may affect the severity of risks to financial stability, but that it is possible to generalize an inflation targeting framework to take account of financial stability concerns alongside traditional stabilization objectives.
Journal ArticleDOI
The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors identify initial macroeconomic and financial market conditions that help explain the distinct response of the real economy of a particular country to the recent global financial crisis using four measures of crisis severity, and examine a data set with over 90 potential explanatory factors employing techniques that are robust to model uncertainty.
Posted Content
Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area and the Impact of the Financial Crisis
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed whether the synchronization pattern of business cycles in the euro area has systematically changed since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 and found that country-specific differences in the terms of trade and fiscal imbalances may have caused the global shock to affect euro area countries asymmetrically.
Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss recent experiences with inflation targeting (IT), the challenges that it faces since the global financial crisis, and ways to address them, conducted from the perspective of upper middle-income countries (MICs).
Journal ArticleDOI
Macroeconomic Stability, Financial Stability, and Monetary Policy Rules
TL;DR: The authors reviewed arguments for and against attributing explicitly a financial stability objective to monetary policy, and concluded that monetary policy is not a substitute to macro-prudential regulation, because monetary policy cannot, in any event, address the cross-section dimension of systemic risk, and because MICs often face circumstances (e.g., sudden floods) where it could have undesirable side effects if used as an exclusive policy instrument.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation
TL;DR: In this article, a procedure for representing a times series as the sum of a smoothly varying trend component and a cyclical component is proposed, and the nature of the comovements of the cyclical components of a variety of macroeconomic time series is documented.
Journal ArticleDOI
Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series
Marianne Baxter,Robert G. King +1 more
TL;DR: The authors developed a set of approximate band-pass filters and illustrates their application to measuring the business-cycle component of macroeconomic activity, and compared them with several alternative filters commonly used for extracting business cycle components.
Journal ArticleDOI
Detrending, stylized facts and the business cycle
Andrew Harvey,A. Jaeger +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the consequences of the widely used detrending technique popularised by Hodrick and Prescott (1980) were analyzed. And the structural framework provided a basis for exposing the limitations of ARIMA methodology and models based on a deterministic trend with a single break.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
TL;DR: This article examined the reliability of alternative output detrending methods, with special attention to the accuracy of real-time estimates of the output gap, and showed that ex-post revisions of the estimated gap are of the same order of magnitude as the estimate itself and that these revisions are highly persistent.
Related Papers (5)
The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time
Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation
Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series
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