The risk perceptions of individual investors
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors studied the risk perceptions of individual investors by asking experimental questions to 2226 members of a consumer panel and analyzed their responses in order to find which risk measures they implicitly use.
About: This article is published in Journal of Economic Psychology.The article was published on 2008-04-01 and is currently open access. It has received 89 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Risk measure & Rate of return.
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TL;DR: In this article, the authors conducted a survey on risk perceptions of investment products in the German-speaking area of Switzerland and found that knowledge-related scales were highly correlated with risk related scales, whereas the correlation between perceived risk and historical risk measures was much lower.
Abstract: We conducted a survey on risk perceptions of investment products in the German-speaking area of Switzerland. Unlike the typical two-factor structure documented in the previous literature, we found that knowledge-related scales were highly correlated with risk-related scales, whereas the correlation between perceived risk and historical risk measures was much lower. The respondents perceived those easier-to-understand products as less risky, which was likely driven by the familiarity bias. Our results are in line with the affect heuristic and risk-as-feelings hypotheses.
113 citations
TL;DR: Xiong et al. as discussed by the authors developed a forward-looking approach that uses information from market option prices to derive constant maturity S&P 500 implied distributions and transform them to the corresponding risk-adjusted ones.
Abstract: We address the empirical implementation of the static asset allocation problem by developing a forward-looking approach that uses information from market option prices. To this end, we extract constant maturity S&P 500 implied distributions and transform them to the corresponding risk-adjusted ones. Then we form optimal portfolios consisting of a risky and a risk-free asset and evaluate their out-of-sample performance. We find that the use of risk-adjusted implied distributions times the market and makes the investor better off than if she uses historical returns' distributions to calculate her optimal strategy. The results hold under a number of evaluation metrics and utility functions and carry through even when transaction costs are taken into account. Not surprisingly, the reported market timing ability deteriorated during the recent subprime crisis. An extension of the approach to a dynamic asset allocation setting is also presented.
This paper was accepted by Wei Xiong, finance.
71 citations
TL;DR: In this article, two surveys were conducted to examine the financial risk perception of German individual investors (N = 119 in study 1; N = 171 in study 2). Participants were asked to rate the risk and several aspects of different types of investment products (e.g. shares and bank savings books).
71 citations
TL;DR: The authors survey investors on their subjective sentiment-creating factors, return and risk expectations, and investment plans, and find that noneconomic factors systematically affect return expectation and risk expectation, where the return effect is more profound.
Abstract: Do happy people predict future risk and return differently from unhappy people,
or do individuals rely only on economic facts? We survey investors on their
subjective sentiment-creating factors, return and risk expectations, and
investment plans. We find that noneconomic factors systematically affect return
and risk expectations, where the return effect is more profound. Investment
plans are also affected by noneconomic factors. Sports results and general
feelings significantly affect predictions. Sufferers from seasonal affective
disorder have lower return expectations in the autumn than in other seasons,
supporting the winter blues hypothesis.
66 citations
01 Jun 2016
TL;DR: The results indicate that the investors' perceptions on market conditions and global financial situation influence their industry selection on company stocks, and traded stocks of financial industry have greater performance expectations than those of the ones in other industries such as technology, services and tourism.
Abstract: The 2008-2009 global financial crisis and its subsequent ramifications on capital markets have led to an increasing attention on the importance of cognitive and behavioral issues in finance. The purpose of this study is to determine the ranking of the industry alternatives for portfolio investments based on individual investors' perceptions. Accordingly, a hybrid analytic multi-criteria decision model (MCDM)-based on the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and the Fuzzy Technique for the Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS) methods along with sensitivity analysis-is developed to identify and rank-order the best performing industry options. The proposed model is applied to Borsa Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 Index (BIST 100) in Turkey. The results indicate that (i) the investors' perceptions on market conditions and global financial situation influence their industry selection on company stocks; (ii) the investors' perceptions on portfolio investments rely heavily on performance and risk levels of individual asset/stocks, and (iii) traded stocks of financial industry (along with its sub-industries) have greater performance expectations than those of the ones in other industries such as technology, services and tourism. Economic instability is increasing the importance of cognitive/behavioral issues in finance.Investors' perception influences industry selection decision for investments.Investors' perception on portfolio investments relies heavily on performance and risk of individual asset.Use of a fuzzy-hybrid methodology improves the financial decision outcomes.Fuzzy logic, AHP and TOPSIS are collectively and synergistically used in this study.
61 citations
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TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a critique of expected utility theory as a descriptive model of decision making under risk, and develop an alternative model, called prospect theory, in which value is assigned to gains and losses rather than to final assets and in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights.
Abstract: This paper presents a critique of expected utility theory as a descriptive model of decision making under risk, and develops an alternative model, called prospect theory. Choices among risky prospects exhibit several pervasive effects that are inconsistent with the basic tenets of utility theory. In particular, people underweight outcomes that are merely probable in comparison with outcomes that are obtained with certainty. This tendency, called the certainty effect, contributes to risk aversion in choices involving sure gains and to risk seeking in choices involving sure losses. In addition, people generally discard components that are shared by all prospects under consideration. This tendency, called the isolation effect, leads to inconsistent preferences when the same choice is presented in different forms. An alternative theory of choice is developed, in which value is assigned to gains and losses rather than to final assets and in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights. The value function is normally concave for gains, commonly convex for losses, and is generally steeper for losses than for gains. Decision weights are generally lower than the corresponding probabilities, except in the range of low prob- abilities. Overweighting of low probabilities may contribute to the attractiveness of both insurance and gambling. EXPECTED UTILITY THEORY has dominated the analysis of decision making under risk. It has been generally accepted as a normative model of rational choice (24), and widely applied as a descriptive model of economic behavior, e.g. (15, 4). Thus, it is assumed that all reasonable people would wish to obey the axioms of the theory (47, 36), and that most people actually do, most of the time. The present paper describes several classes of choice problems in which preferences systematically violate the axioms of expected utility theory. In the light of these observations we argue that utility theory, as it is commonly interpreted and applied, is not an adequate descriptive model and we propose an alternative account of choice under risk. 2. CRITIQUE
35,067 citations
27,773 citations
TL;DR: Cumulative prospect theory as discussed by the authors applies to uncertain as well as to risky prospects with any number of outcomes, and it allows different weighting functions for gains and for losses, and two principles, diminishing sensitivity and loss aversion, are invoked to explain the characteristic curvature of the value function and the weighting function.
Abstract: We develop a new version of prospect theory that employs cumulative rather than separable decision weights and extends the theory in several respects. This version, called cumulative prospect theory, applies to uncertain as well as to risky prospects with any number of outcomes, and it allows different weighting functions for gains and for losses. Two principles, diminishing sensitivity and loss aversion, are invoked to explain the characteristic curvature of the value function and the weighting functions. A review of the experimental evidence and the results of a new experiment confirm a distinctive fourfold pattern of risk attitudes: risk aversion for gains and risk seeking for losses of high probability; risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for losses of low probability. Expected utility theory reigned for several decades as the dominant normative and descriptive model of decision making under uncertainty, but it has come under serious question in recent years. There is now general agreement that the theory does not provide an adequate description of individual choice: a substantial body of evidence shows that decision makers systematically violate its basic tenets. Many alternative models have been proposed in response to this empirical challenge (for reviews, see Camerer, 1989; Fishburn, 1988; Machina, 1987). Some time ago we presented a model of choice, called prospect theory, which explained the major violations of expected utility theory in choices between risky prospects with a small number of outcomes (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979; Tversky and Kahneman, 1986). The key elements of this theory are 1) a value function that is concave for gains, convex for losses, and steeper for losses than for gains,
13,433 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a reference-dependent theory of consumer choice, which explains such effects by a deformation of indifference curves about the reference point, in which losses and disadvantages have greater impact on preferences than gains and advantages.
Abstract: Much experimental evidence indicates that choice depends on the status quo or reference level: changes of reference point often lead to reversals of preference. We present a reference-dependent theory of consumer choice, which explains such effects by a deformation of indifference curves about the reference point. The central assumption of the theory is that losses and disadvantages have greater impact on preferences than gains and advantages. Implications of loss aversion for economic behavior are considered. The standard models of decision making assume that preferences do not depend on current assets. This assumption greatly simplifies the analysis of individual choice and the prediction of trades: indifference curves are drawn without reference to current holdings, and the Coase theorem asserts that, except for transaction costs, initial entitlements do not affect final allocations. The facts of the matter are more complex. There is substantial evidence that initial entitlements do matter and that the rate of exchange between goods can be quite different depending on which is acquired and which is given up, even in the absence of transaction costs or income effects. In accord with a psychological analysis of value, reference levels play a large role in determining preferences. In the present paper we review the evidence for this proposition and offer a theory that generalizes the standard model by introducing a reference state. The present analysis of riskless choice extends our treatment of choice under uncertainty [Kahneman and Tversky, 1979, 1984; Tversky and Kahneman, 1991], in which the outcomes of risky prospects are evaluated by a value function that has three essential characteristics. Reference dependence: the carriers of value are gains and losses defined relative to a reference point. Loss aversion: the function is steeper in the negative than in the positive domain; losses loom larger than corresponding gains. Diminishing sensitivity: the marginal value of both gains and losses decreases with their
5,864 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the combined problem of optimal portfolio selection and consumption rules for an individual in a continuous-time model was examined, where his income is generated by returns on assets and these returns or instantaneous "growth rates" are stochastic.
Abstract: OST models of portfolio selection have M been one-period models. I examine the combined problem of optimal portfolio selection and consumption rules for an individual in a continuous-time model whzere his income is generated by returns on assets and these returns or instantaneous "growth rates" are stochastic. P. A. Samuelson has developed a similar model in discrete-time for more general probability distributions in a companion paper [8]. I derive the optimality equations for a multiasset problem when the rate of returns are generated by a Wiener Brownian-motion process. A particular case examined in detail is the two-asset model with constant relative riskaversion or iso-elastic marginal utility. An explicit solution is also found for the case of constant absolute risk-aversion. The general technique employed can be used to examine a wide class of intertemporal economic problems under uncertainty. In addition to the Samuelson paper [8], there is the multi-period analysis of Tobin [9]. Phelps [6] has a model used to determine the optimal consumption rule for a multi-period example where income is partly generated by an asset with an uncertain return. Mirrless [5] has developed a continuous-time optimal consumption model of the neoclassical type with technical progress a random variable.
4,908 citations