The role of human error in risk analysis: Application to pre- and post-maintenance procedures of process facilities
TL;DR: The present study focuses on a human factors analysis in pre- and post- pump maintenance operations of an offshore process facility, aimed at highlighting the importance of considering human error in quantitative risk analyses.
About: This article is published in Reliability Engineering & System Safety.The article was published on 2013-11-01. It has received 117 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Human error assessment and reduction technique & Human error.
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TL;DR: A hybrid dynamic human factor model considering Human Factor Analysis and Classification System, intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, and Bayesian network is presented, testing its robustness in estimating impact rate (degree) of human factor induced failures, consideration of the conditional dependency, and a dynamic and flexible modelling structure.
Abstract: Human factors are the largest contributing factors to unsafe operation of the chemical process systems. Conventional methods of human factor assessment are often static, unable to deal with data and model uncertainty, and to consider independencies among failure modes. To overcome the above limitations, this paper presents a hybrid dynamic human factor model considering Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, and Bayesian network. The model is tested on accident scenarios which have occurred in a hot tapping operation of a natural gas pipeline. The results demonstrate that poor occupational safety training, failure to implement risk management principles, and ignoring reporting unsafe conditions were the factors that contributed most failures causing accident. The potential risk-based safety measures for preventing similar accidents are discussed. The application of the model confirms its robustness in estimating impact rate (degree) of human factor induced failures, consideration of the conditional dependency, and a dynamic and flexible modelling structure.
127 citations
TL;DR: A novel extension toDEMATEL (decision making trial and evaluation laboratory) named Pythagorean fuzzy DEMATEL is proposed on a common probabilistic safety analysis and confirms its robustness in prioritizing critical root events and CAs compared with a conventional model, consideration of the influencing factors, and a dynamic and flexible structure.
102 citations
TL;DR: The model developed in this study is used to find out the reliability of human performance on particular maintenance activities and is effective in assessing human error probabilities.
Abstract: Background Maintenance operations on-board ships are highly demanding. Maintenance operations are intensive activities requiring high man–machine interactions in challenging and evolving conditions. The evolving conditions are weather conditions, workplace temperature, ship motion, noise and vibration, and workload and stress. For example, extreme weather condition affects seafarers' performance, increasing the chances of error, and, consequently, can cause injuries or fatalities to personnel. An effective human error probability model is required to better manage maintenance on-board ships. The developed model would assist in developing and maintaining effective risk management protocols. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop a human error probability model considering various internal and external factors affecting seafarers' performance. Methods The human error probability model is developed using probability theory applied to Bayesian network. The model is tested using the data received through the developed questionnaire survey of >200 experienced seafarers with >5 years of experience. The model developed in this study is used to find out the reliability of human performance on particular maintenance activities. Results The developed methodology is tested on the maintenance of marine engine's cooling water pump for engine department and anchor windlass for deck department. In the considered case studies, human error probabilities are estimated in various scenarios and the results are compared between the scenarios and the different seafarer categories. The results of the case studies for both departments are also compared. Conclusion The developed model is effective in assessing human error probabilities. These probabilities would get dynamically updated as and when new information is available on changes in either internal (i.e., training, experience, and fatigue) or external (i.e., environmental and operational conditions such as weather conditions, workplace temperature, ship motion, noise and vibration, and workload and stress) factors.
88 citations
Cites background from "The role of human error in risk ana..."
...Researchers [3,7e11] applied human reliability assessment techniques to several engineering applications [7], applied this concept to investigating human performance in offshore platform musters [10], and investigated this technique in pre- and postmaintenance procedures of offshore oil and gas facilities....
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TL;DR: A mathematical model is developed that estimates the human error rate while performing an assembly job under the influence of learning–forgetting and fatigue–recovery and is able to dynamically measure the humanerror rate and reliability with time.
87 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a novel methodology using Bayesian Network (BN) to conduct the dynamic safety analysis for the offloading process of an LNG carrier and investigated different risk factors associated with LNG offloading procedures in order to predict the probability of undesirable accidents.
Abstract: The growing demand for natural gas has pushed oil and gas exploration to more isolated and previously untapped regions around the world where construction of LNG processing plants is not always a viable option. The development of FLNG will allow floating plants to be positioned in remote offshore areas and subsequently produce, liquefy, store and offload LNG in the one position. The offloading process from an FLNG platform to a gas tanker can be a high risk operation. It consists of LNG being transferred, in hostile environments, through loading arms or flexible cryogenic hoses into a carrier which then transports the LNG to onshore facilities. During the carrier's offloading process at onshore terminals, it again involves risk that may result in an accident such as collision, leakage and/or grounding. It is therefore critical to assess and monitor all risks associated with the offloading operation. This study is aimed at developing a novel methodology using Bayesian Network (BN) to conduct the dynamic safety analysis for the offloading process of an LNG carrier. It investigates different risk factors associated with LNG offloading procedures in order to predict the probability of undesirable accidents. Dynamic failure assessment using Bayesian theory can estimate the likelihood of the occurrence of an event. It can also estimate the failure probability of the safety system and thereby develop a dynamic failure assessment tool for the offloading process at a particular FLNG plant. The main objectives of this paper are: to understand the LNG offloading process, to identify hazardous events during offloading operation, and to perform failure analysis (modelling) of critical accidents and/or events. Most importantly, it is to evaluate and compare risks. A sensitivity analysis has been performed to validate the risk models and to study the behaviour of the most influential factors. The results have indicated that collision is the most probable accident to occur during the offloading process of an LNG carrier at berth, which may have catastrophic consequences.
74 citations
References
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Book•
24 Aug 2021
TL;DR: Partial table of contents: THE HUMAN FACTORS FUNCTION.
Abstract: Partial table of contents: THE HUMAN FACTORS FUNCTION. System Design and Evaluation (S. Czaja). THE HUMAN FACTORS FUNDAMENTALS. Perceptual Motor Skills and Human Motion Analysis (D. Regan). Biomechanics of the Human Body (W. Marras). JOB DESIGN. Allocation of Functions (J. Sharit). Task Analysis (H. Luczak). EQUIPMENT, WORKPLACE, AND ENVIRONMENTAL DESIGN. Biomechanical Aspects of Workplace Design (D. Chaffin). Illumination (P. Boyce). DESIGN FOR HEALTH AND SAFETY. Occupational Risk Management (B. Zimolong). PERFORMANCE MODELING. Cognitive Modeling (R. Eberts). EVALUATION. Human Factors Audits (C. Drury). HUMAN--COMPUTER INTERACTION. Software--User Interface Design (Y. Liu). SELECTED APPLICATIONS OF HUMAN FACTORS. Human Factors in Process Control (N. Moray). Indexes.
1,815 citations
01 Aug 1983
TL;DR: The Handbook provides the methodology to identify and quantify the potential for human error in NPP tasks.
Abstract: The primary purpose of the Handbook is to present methods, models, and estimated human error probabilities (HEPs) to enable qualified analysts to make quantitative or qualitative assessments of occurrences of human errors in nuclear power plants (NPPs) that affect the availability or operational reliability of engineered safety features and components. The Handbook is intended to provide much of the modeling and information necessary for the performance of human reliability analysis (HRA) as a part of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of NPPs. Although not a design guide, a second purpose of the Handbook is to enable the user to recognize error-likely equipment design, plant policies and practices, written procedures, and other human factors problems so that improvements can be considered. The Handbook provides the methodology to identify and quantify the potential for human error in NPP tasks.
1,736 citations
"The role of human error in risk ana..." refers methods in this paper
...Incorporating HEPs in the development of operational procedures can significantly improve the overall reliability of the system [7]....
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Book•
01 Jan 1957
TL;DR: Human factors in engineering and design, Human factors in Engineering and design as mentioned in this paper, human factors in design and engineering, human factor in engineering, and design in software engineering and software engineering.
Abstract: Human factors in engineering and design , Human factors in engineering and design , مرکز فناوری اطلاعات و اطلاع رسانی کشاورزی
1,698 citations
"The role of human error in risk ana..." refers background in this paper
...Researchers [20] outlined the types of human factors directly and indirectly related to errors in maintenance....
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15 Feb 2016
TL;DR: Human factors engineering and design, Human factors engineering, and design of human factors, human factors engineering as discussed by the authors, human factor engineering, human factor design, and the design of the human factors.
Abstract: Human factors engineering and design , Human factors engineering and design , مرکز فناوری اطلاعات و اطلاع رسانی کشاورزی
1,417 citations
TL;DR: A hybrid method of short-term traffic forecasting is introduced; the KARIMA method, which uses a Kohonen self-organizing map as an initial classifier; each class has an individually tuned ARIMA model associated with it.
Abstract: A hybrid method of short-term traffic forecasting is introduced; the KARIMA method. The technique uses a Kohonen self-organizing map as an initial classifier; each class has an individually tuned ARIMA model associated with it. Using a Kohonen map which is hexagonal in layout eases the problem of defining the classes. The explicit separation of the tasks of classification and functional approximation greatly improves forecasting performance compared to either a single ARIMA model or a backpropagation neural network. The model is demonstrated by producing forecasts of traffic flow, at horizons of half an hour and an hour, for a French motorway. Performance is similar to that exhibited by other layered models, but the number of classes needed is much smaller (typically between two and four). Because the number of classes is small, it is concluded that the algorithm could be easily retrained in order to track long-term changes in traffic flow and should also prove to be readily transferrable.
700 citations
"The role of human error in risk ana..." refers methods in this paper
...have developed a new tool by combining the fuzzy logic principles and the CREAM for the estimation of the HEP and also Dougherty studied forecasting traffic flows using ATHENA method [5,6]....
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