Journal ArticleDOI
The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves
Christoph Schär,Pier Luigi Vidale,Daniel Lüthi,Christoph Frei,Christian Häberli,Mark A. Liniger,Christof Appenzeller +6 more
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TLDR
It is found that an event like that of summer 2003 is statistically extremely unlikely, even when the observed warming is taken into account, and it is proposed that a regime with an increased variability of temperatures (in addition to increases in mean temperature) may be able to account for summer 2003.Abstract:
Instrumental observations1,2 and reconstructions3,4 of global and hemispheric temperature evolution reveal a pronounced warming during the past ∼150 years. One expression of this warming is the observed increase in the occurrence of heatwaves5,6. Conceptually this increase is understood as a shift of the statistical distribution towards warmer temperatures, while changes in the width of the distribution are often considered small7. Here we show that this framework fails to explain the record-breaking central European summer temperatures in 2003, although it is consistent with observations from previous years. We find that an event like that of summer 2003 is statistically extremely unlikely, even when the observed warming is taken into account. We propose that a regime with an increased variability of temperatures (in addition to increases in mean temperature) may be able to account for summer 2003. To test this proposal, we simulate possible future European climate with a regional climate model in a scenario with increased atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, and find that temperature variability increases by up to 100%, with maximum changes in central and eastern Europe.read more
Citations
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Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
TL;DR: Drafting Authors: Neil Adger, Pramod Aggarwal, Shardul Agrawala, Joseph Alcamo, Abdelkader Allali, Oleg Anisimov, Nigel Arnell, Michel Boko, Osvaldo Canziani, Timothy Carter, Gino Casassa, Ulisses Confalonieri, Rex Victor Cruz, Edmundo de Alba Alcaraz, William Easterling, Christopher Field, Andreas Fischlin, Blair Fitzharris.
Journal ArticleDOI
Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003
Philippe Ciais,Markus Reichstein,Nicolas Viovy,A. Granier,Jérôme Ogée,Vincent Allard,M. Aubinet,Nina Buchmann,C. Bernhofer,Arnaud Carrara,Frédéric Chevallier,N. de Noblet,Andrew D. Friend,Pierre Friedlingstein,Thomas Grünwald,Bernard Heinesch,Petri Keronen,Alexander Knohl,Gerhard Krinner,Denis Loustau,Giovanni Manca,Giorgio Matteucci,Franco Miglietta,Jean-Marc Ourcival,Dario Papale,Kim Pilegaard,Serge Rambal,G. Seufert,Jean-François Soussana,María José Sanz,Ernst Detlef Schulze,Timo Vesala,Riccardo Valentini +32 more
TL;DR: An increase in future drought events could turn temperate ecosystems into carbon sources, contributing to positive carbon-climate feedbacks already anticipated in the tropics and at high latitudes.
Journal ArticleDOI
Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review
Sonia I. Seneviratne,T. Corti,Edouard Davin,Martin Hirschi,Eric B. Jaeger,Irene Lehner,Boris Orlowsky,Adriaan J. Teuling +7 more
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a synthesis of past research on the role of soil moisture for the climate system, based both on modelling and observational studies, focusing on soil moisture-temperature and soil moistureprecipitation feedbacks, and their possible modifications with climate change.
Journal ArticleDOI
More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century
Gerald A. Meehl,Claudia Tebaldi +1 more
TL;DR: Observations and the model show that present-day heat waves over Europe and North America coincide with a specific atmospheric circulation pattern that is intensified by ongoing increases in greenhouse gases, indicating that it will produce more severe heat waves in those regions in the future.
Book
Climate change and water.
TL;DR: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Paper Climate Change and Water draws together and evaluates the information in IPCC Assessment and Special Reports concerning the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes and regimes, and on freshwater resources.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
Climate change 2001: the scientific basis
John Theodore Houghton,Y. Ding,David John Griggs,M. Noguer,P. J. van der Linden,X. Dai,K. Maskell,C. A. Johnson +7 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present an overview of the climate system and its dynamics, including observed climate variability and change, the carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases, and their direct and indirect effects.
Special report on emissions scenarios
Nebojsa Nakicenovic,Joseph Alcamo,Gerald F. Davis,Bert de Vries,Joergen Fenhann,Stuart Gaffin,Kermeth Gregory,Amulf Griibler,Tae Y. Jung,Tom Kram,Emilio Lèbre La Rovere,Laurie Michaelis,S. Mori,Tsuneyuki Morita,William Pepper,Hugh M. Pitcher,Lynn Price,Keywan Riahi,Alexander Roehrl,Hans-Holger Rogner,Alexei Sankovski,Michael E. Schlesinger,Priyadarshi R. Shukla,Steven J. Smith,Robert Swart,Sascha van Rooijen,Nadejda M. Victor,Zhou Dadi +27 more
TL;DR: Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., Vries, B. van; Victor, N.; Zhou, D. de; Fenhann, J.; Gaffin, S.; Gregory, K.; Grubler, A.; Jung, T. La; Michaelis, L.; Mori, S; Morita, T.; Pepper, W.; Pitcher, H.; Price, L., Riahi, K; Rogner, H-H.; Sankovski, A; Schlesinger, M.; Shuk
Journal ArticleDOI
Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years
TL;DR: A 21st-century global warming projection far exceeds the natural variability of the past 1000 years and is greater than the best estimate of global temperature change for the last interglacial.
Journal ArticleDOI
Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century
P. Frich,Lisa V. Alexander,Paul M. Della-Marta,Byron E. Gleason,M. R. Haylock,Amg Klein Tank,Thomas C. Peterson +6 more
TL;DR: A new global dataset of derived indicators has been compiled to clarify whether fre- quency and/or severity of climatic extremes changed during the second half of the 20th century as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre Climate Model—HADAM3
TL;DR: HadAM3 (Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model version 3) as discussed by the authors is the latest version of the Hadley Centre climate model, which represents a significant improvement over the previous version, HadAM2b.
Related Papers (5)
More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century
Gerald A. Meehl,Claudia Tebaldi +1 more
Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003
Philippe Ciais,Markus Reichstein,Nicolas Viovy,A. Granier,Jérôme Ogée,Vincent Allard,M. Aubinet,Nina Buchmann,C. Bernhofer,Arnaud Carrara,Frédéric Chevallier,N. de Noblet,Andrew D. Friend,Pierre Friedlingstein,Thomas Grünwald,Bernard Heinesch,Petri Keronen,Alexander Knohl,Gerhard Krinner,Denis Loustau,Giovanni Manca,Giorgio Matteucci,Franco Miglietta,Jean-Marc Ourcival,Dario Papale,Kim Pilegaard,Serge Rambal,G. Seufert,Jean-François Soussana,María José Sanz,Ernst Detlef Schulze,Timo Vesala,Riccardo Valentini +32 more